2016 USA Presidential election thread I: The warm-up

[Talint]

That worked so well for Obama, right?

It's not like Obama's (larger) coalition, inspired by a campaign of hope and change, died a long slow death when their enthusiasm met the immovable wall of Republican obstructionism.

But how does this change with a Hillary Clinton presidency?

[kisada]

it doesn't necessarily change, but the point is it's pretty much the entire foundation of what bernie supporters live/breathe/eat/shit/die upon. and ignorantly so

[Gredival]

But how does this change with a Hillary Clinton presidency?

HRC isn't promising earth-shattering changes, so what's your point?

My argument in this thread has consistently been the following:

1. Neither HRC or Bernie has any chance of getting huge domestic agenda through Congress (i.e. both candidates have low reward)
2. HRC is more electable than Bernie (i.e. HRC is low risk, Bernie is high risk)
--------
C. HRC is the only logical voting choice (she represents low risk-low reward, while Bernie is high risk-low reward)

The most lasting and effective change that either HRC or Bernie will bring about (domestically) is to replace Scalia. That's it.

[Gredival]

http://www.counterpunch.org/2016/04/...ratic-parties/



http://www.politico.com/story/2016/0...draiser-221207

So HRC can do a donation fund where a seat costs $353,400. A person is legally allowed to donate $2,700 to both her Primary and General sections. $33,400 to the DNC, and the $10,000 to each democrat state parties. There's some nice fineprint in Hillary's donation page.



I'd bet money is going to the DNC and back to Hillary unless otherwise specified.

Per the Counterpunch Article.

You are seriously like 5 pages behind on this argument. In that giant post that you haven't deigned to respond to in any substantive way, I've already argued that this proves why HRC is actually better than Bernie because she is helping to build the Democratic majority needed in the House, Senate, and to build Democratic buffers for state/local politics.

Even Bernie says the Democrats need to do that. He just wants to ignore the fact that money is needed for that.

[Eurell]

He admitted himself that his coalition is smaller than Obama's in the New York Daily News interview.



And that figure is deceiving. I believe that not all of those five were Democratic-only primaries, it includes aggregated turn-out for primaries where both parties are voting on the same day (remember that Republican primary turnout is currently higher than Democrats)

Bernie's rallies are record breaking, but Obama got far far far more people to the poll. Of course we don't know what it would look like in November, but given how many people probably just showed up to elect the first black President, I highly doubt Bernie can match that.

Maybe Im just being retarded right now, but that quote pretty clearly says he had higher turnout than Obama (in at least 5 states).

[archibaldcrane]

I mean, it's pretty universally reported on that the Democrats are having lower turnout in 2016 primaries than they had in 2008 - and on top of that the majority of voters have been voting for Clinton, not Bernie - so...yeah.

[Talint]

HRC isn't promising earth-shattering changes, so what's your point?

My argument in this thread has consistently been the following:

1. Neither HRC or Bernie has any chance of getting huge domestic agenda through Congress (i.e. both candidates have low reward)
2. HRC is more electable than Bernie (i.e. HRC is low risk, Bernie is high risk)
--------
C. HRC is the only logical voting choice (she represents low risk-low reward, while Bernie is high risk-low reward)

The most lasting and effective change that either HRC or Bernie will bring about (domestically) is to replace Scalia. That's it.

Yeah, about "electability"

If we want to suggest that a particular candidate is too liberal or too conservative to be competitive in a general election, then we should just say that. We don’t need a clunky label like “electability.”

[archibaldcrane]

It's annoying to look at state by state numbers, but I picked a random group of 3 (Texas, Minnesota, North Carolina) and the total voters in the Dem Primary in all 3 were lower this year than '08.

[archibaldcrane]

Yeah, about "electability"

But we don't just mean too ideologically far from center when we talk about Sanders electability - we also mean that he has unexploited weaknesses that the general public isn't aware of. The "women who fantasize about being raped" thing, the honeymooning in the Soviet Union thing, the praising of Fidel Castro thing, the bread lines, etc. etc. - stuff Hillary is reluctant to exploit but that the Republican candidate would happily exploit.

[Gredival]

Maybe Im just being retarded right now, but that quote pretty clearly says he had higher turnout than Obama (in at least 5 states).

Which doesn't mean turn-out is up? A higher turn out in only five out of 32 means you have a lower turn out in 27 or 32. So unless the margins are extremely skewed (they aren't) that means your turn-out is smaller.

Plus, as I said, if your five states with higher turn out include states that do D and R primaries on the same day, it's even worse because then your campaign isn't the one generating turn out, you are only getting more participation because of Republicans (currently having higher primary turn out)

[Gredival]

Yeah, about "electability"

Do you really think that I of all people have a problem with saying Bernie is too liberal to be competitive in a general election?

Okay you got me!

[Eurell]

Which doesn't mean turn-out is up? A higher turn out in only five out of 32 means you have a lower turn out in 27 or 32. So unless the margins are extremely skewed (they aren't) that means your turn-out is smaller.

Plus, as I said, if your five states with higher turn out include states that do D and R primaries on the same day, it's even worse because then your campaign isn't the one generating turn out, you are only getting more participation because of Republicans (currently having higher primary turn out)

"At least" Maybe I missed a date on the quote, but for all I know, he said that after only 5 states voted.

Not that any of this means anything in the long run anyway lol, was just confused by you saying Bernie admitted something, then posting something that looked to be to the contrary.

[Gredival]

"At least" Maybe I missed a date on the quote, but for all I know, he said that after only 5 states voted.

Not that any of this means anything in the long run anyway lol, was just confused by you saying Bernie admitted something, then posting something that looked to be to the contrary.

"The Daily News Editorial Board interviewed Sen. Bernie Sanders, Democratic candidate for President, on April 1 in the offices of the newspaper in downtown Manhattan."

The quote sounds positive because he's trying to spin it for his campaign as a positive, but the content that turn out was only up in five states is the point. I chose a quote from him so there would be no accusation of bias.

[Minions]

http://m.nydailynews.com/opinion/tra...icle-1.2588306

NYDN interview with Bernie. It seems like Bernie hasn't quite figured out how the whole "break up the banks" thing would work.

Yeah... at least Sanders knows what to study before the next debate, as I'm sure this will become a focal point.

[archibaldcrane]

It's preposterous that he's spent nearly a full calendar year harping on this and still doesn't get the intricacies of what he's proposing.

[Dotsudoku]

well when his support doesn't require it of him

[Gredival]

Trump ally Roger Stone says they will release the hotel room info for delegates who switch from Trump to someone else during the convention. “We’re going to have protests, demonstrations. We will disclose the hotels and the room numbers of those delegates who are directly involved in the steal… We urge you to visit their hotel and find them. You have a right to discuss this, if… your votes are being disallowed.”

http://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-g...n-hotel-221586

[archibaldcrane]

Polls are closed, here we go.

[Minions]

Exit polls

[Dotsudoku]

looks about right based on theguardian