2016 USA Presidential election thread I: The warm-up

[Bardicrune]

For some reason I feel that 2017 and 2018 may be the years to place the bet for "PotUS Impeachment Proceedings" in Vegas. (No matter who wins the election).

[Quicklet]

Honestly at this point it wouldn't shock me if the Republicans just filibuster until a liberal leaves the court so they can do a 1 for 1 deal.

[Dotsudoku]

what is it that you think Hillary would do to call for impeachment?

[Dantrag]

what is it that you think Hillary would do to call for impeachment?

FBI investigation goes through and she gets indited based off her email server etc.

[archibaldcrane]

Pretty sure that's going to be wrapped up by the end of July at the latest.

[Dantrag]

It was just my guess based off the comment.

[Cantih]

It doesn't matter. Look at how the GOP lost their shit over a black dude.
And with how things were with the Clintons back in the 90's and continuing to today, if there is any thought that the GOP will calm down with the black guy out, that thought is wrong. Expect more of the past eight years from them going forward.

Anyways, lets get a fresher topic going. Now that everywhere except DC has voted, how is the situation looking nationally for house and senate composition?

[Sho]

FBI investigation goes through and she gets indited based off her email server etc.

Do you honestly believe that this would be the outcome?

It's not going to happen like this. People can hate on the e-mails or Benghazi as much as they want, but Clinton isn't going to be prosecuted, going to jail (or be impeached if POTUS) over this.

[archibaldcrane]

Anyways, lets get a fresher topic going. Now that everywhere except DC has voted, how is the situation looking nationally for house and senate composition?

For the Senate, here's the 538 pre-prediction-preview: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...s-strike-back/

tl;dr Good chance to flip Wisconsin and Illinois, decent chance to pickup Rubio's vacant seat in Florida, even odds to hold Reid's vacant seat in Nevada, competitive to flip Ohio and New Hampshire (although not quite favored)

This would produce a 51-seat majority (plus VP for tiebreakers if Hillary wins)

Longer shots are flipping McCain's seat in Arizona, flipping North Carolina, flipping Chuck Grassley's seat in Iowa (the guy holding up the Merrick Garland nomination), flipping Pat Toomey's seat in Pennsylvania (although that may not be as much of a longshot as it looked).

Map here: http://www.centerforpolitics.org/cry...l/2016-senate/
So there's like 9 Republican seats in some measure of jeopardy, 3 of which will likely flip and a couple others that are very competitive, with the other 4 being longer shots that a big Hillary win could enable. There's also one Dem seat in jeopardy that is a straight tossup.

[Krandor]

Do you honestly believe that this would be the outcome?

It's not going to happen like this. People can hate on the e-mails or Benghazi as much as they want, but Clinton isn't going to be prosecuted, going to jail (or be impeached if POTUS) over this.

I want it to be the outcome, but regardless of if she's actually guilty enough to be indicted, I think she gets off scott free.

[Gredival]

For the Senate, here's the 538 pre-prediction-preview: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...s-strike-back/

tl;dr Good chance to flip Wisconsin and Illinois, decent chance to pickup Rubio's vacant seat in Florida, even odds to hold Reid's vacant seat in Nevada, competitive to flip Ohio and New Hampshire (although not quite favored)

This would produce a 51-seat majority (plus VP for tiebreakers if Hillary wins)

Longer shots are flipping McCain's seat in Arizona, flipping North Carolina, flipping Chuck Grassley's seat in Iowa (the guy holding up the Merrick Garland nomination), flipping Pat Toomey's seat in Pennsylvania (although that may not be as much of a longshot as it looked).

Map here: http://www.centerforpolitics.org/cry...l/2016-senate/
So there's like 9 Republican seats in some measure of jeopardy, 3 of which will likely flip and a couple others that are very competitive, with the other 4 being longer shots that a big Hillary win could enable. There's also one Dem seat in jeopardy that is a straight tossup.

There is no chance we take Grassley down. He's not even holding up Merrick anymore I thought (he made a point of saying that he was using his opposition to hold out for something else didn't he?) but that wouldn't be lethal to him in IA.

[archibaldcrane]

Grassley is the Chairman of the Judiciary committee, if he wanted to move to begin hearings on Garland's nomination, he could.

That being said, he's a longshot, and would require a trouncing of Trump to give it a chance.

jesus chuck is 82 years old, he's running for a term that would see him in the Senate at 88...

[Gredival]

I was mainly mad that you were arguing against people voting their conscience in the primary, when it's safe to do so, so just fucking let them.
Esp. when you're all "yeah, you can't stop her winning". Well then, why you pushing so hard and being an arse about it.

Because shitty primary results sabotage the general, and all I care about is the win in November. The more people that come around and accept that you never vote your conscious, you always vote the game, and the faster they do it, the better.

As for the honey vs. vinegar, I'm not going to do it the Rove way by promising people stuff so they can hold the party hostage later on. That's the very problem with the Bernie factor in general, the belief that radical change can occur. No, I want people to understand that idealism is bad. That any progress in the future must be earned like all progress in the past. Inch by inch in the trenches by activists and operatives that do this every day. Not by people who only care during election cycles. And not by the armchair critics like Bum.

[Gredival]

Grassley is the Chairman of the Judiciary committee, if he wanted to move to begin hearings on Garland's nomination, he could.

That being said, he's a longshot, and would require a trouncing of Trump to give it a chance.

jesus chuck is 82 years old, he's running for a term that would see him in the Senate at 88...

I was misremembering. I was thinking about how he was holding out on voting for the gay Army chief in exchange for a concession from Obama. But again, I still don't think it matters. He's not vulnerable enough that being an obstructionist will do him.

[archibaldcrane]

I'm not so skeptical of Bernie to think he'd have no shot of beating Trump, but I don't see him as being an effective vehicle for progressive change as Hillary, even if he did win.

[dasva]

None of the candidates were supporting building new nuclear plants were they?

Hillary has been sort of vague and is kind of meh on the subject but has thrown support for advanced nuclear into her clean energy plan which implies at least forwarding new plant designs but seems to not really be big for her.

Most of the Republicans that have dropped out have been rather supportive of it.

Trump has been strongly supportive of it in the past but from what I can see it seems mostly as means to get the energy we need without relying on foreign energy so it would probably take a back burner to increasing domestic gas and maybe oil

[archibaldcrane]

We have no lack of domestic natural gas or coal, so domestic electricity supply is a non-issue.

[Gredival]

I think Reid's seat might be a lost cause too. Aren't the Koch brothers throwing all their money there since they aren't spending on the Presidential race this time?

Ironically I think AK is in play though. If the Dems are smart and back Stock's independent campaign instead of fielding a sacrificial lamb, they could push out Murkowski (the Angus King play basically)

[Mrbeansman]

I'm trying to understand how not trusting Hillary on security somehow makes trump not unspeakably worse.

[archibaldcrane]

I think Reid's seat might be a lost cause too. Aren't the Koch brothers throwing all their money there since they aren't spending on the Presidential race this time?

I don't know about the Koch's, but I do know Nevada has a lot of hispanics who are itching to vote against Trump and will likely be party-line voters, especially for Caroline CORTEZ Masto (the D candidate to replace Reid). Money alone is hardly enough, especially given that the Democrats only have to defend (basically) just this seat, and it's Reid's seat - I doubt fundraising is going to be a problem.

That being said Obama won Nevada by 6.5 points in 2012 and the D for Senate still lost by a point (although she was running against an incumbent, which isn't a problem here), so who knows.