2016 USA Presidential election thread I: The warm-up

[archibaldcrane]

Polls-plus doesn't really involve "punditry" - it just incorporates factors like (actually I think exclusively) the economy.

[Cantih]

Nope

The polls-plus model is based on state polls, national polls and endorsements.

[Krandor]

Supposedly Hillary is meeting with the FBI tomorrow.

[archibaldcrane]

Nope

Oh, for the state primary version, yeah. The one being used now is:

Three versions of the model

Polls-plus: Combines polls with an economic index. Since the economic index implies that this election should be a tossup, it assumes the race will tighten somewhat.

Still, numerically quantifying endorsements and incorporating it into a model isn't exactly "punditry".

[Gredival]

As I said previously, I believe that Rasmussen is now using their polling as a way to cement a pro-Republican narrative and the assumptions in their methodology are pretty weak.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...al-polls/#plus

Nothing new. A lot of polling models specifically have the option to exclude Rasmussen only because they consistently over-predict the GOP by a few points.

[ringthree]

Nothing new. A lot of polling models specifically have the option to exclude Rasmussen only because they consistently over-predict the GOP by a few points.

3 cycles ago Rasmussen was actually pretty good. 2 cycles ago it started to get wonky. This cycle they are just ridiculous.

Polls always have some slight biases because of methodology, but when you start making your methodology match a narrative then you are being underhanded. I didn't think they were being underhanded even in the last cycle.

[Gredival]

3 cycles ago Rasmussen was actually pretty good. 2 cycles ago it started to get wonky. This cycle they are just ridiculous.

Polls always have some slight biases because of methodology, but when you start making your methodology match a narrative then you are being underhanded. I didn't think they were being underhanded even in the last cycle.

Electoral vote was calling them out two (Presidential) cycles ago, and in 2012 introduced a Rasmussen free version of their aggregates.

[archibaldcrane]

That Rasmussen Trump+4 poll has him winning non-black minorities (Hispanic+Asian+other) which is completely absurd.

[ringthree]

Electoral vote was calling them out two (Presidential) cycles ago, and in 2012 introduced a Rasmussen free version of their aggregates.

Yeah, agreed. That's what I am saying.

[Gredival]

I haven't liked the Daily Show as much since JS left, but this was on point re: Bernie Bros

[Gryffes]

If I was american and someone called me a bernie bro I'd vote trump out of spite.
Careful what you wish for

[Salodin]

Ask the brits how that spite vote worked for them.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk

[Krandor]

Didn't the FTSE 100 just have it's best week in like half a decade and has already recovered from the initial Brexit dive?

UK is still likely in for a beating over the next 2 years, but at least they've got that going for them

[Andalusian girls]

fluctuations in a market is probably the worst possible way to measure economic well-being, but as you say we'll say what happens over the next two years. the weaker pound will boost British exports to potentially partially offset the loss of their privileged EU trading status and their central bank is reportedly cutting interest rates to inject more cheap credit into the market, movements which will prop up their market in the short term, but if Brexit hits their financial industry as hard as expected the latter could turn into a bad misfire.

as no one has any idea what specific form Brexit is going to take this is all loose speculation. the United Kingdom's fate, ironically, will be decided by EU (and Scottish) officials and whether they pursue punishment or reconciliation.

[Tyche]

Rasmussen polling is so bad that Rasmussen left Rasmussen polling.

[Obev]

British exports

Really not sure we export anything other than Doctor Who and Monty Python reruns any more.

[Qeomash]

Don't forget Sherlock every year or three!

[Andalusian girls]

Really not sure we export anything other than Doctor Who and Monty Python reruns any more.

yall still make Bentleys right

[Sho]

Motherfuckers, lol.

[Ksandra]

https://wikileaks.org/clinton-emails...0#searchresult

Wikileaks released 1000 Clinton emails.

Anyone bored enough to see if anything is interesting out of that?