2016 USA Presidential election thread I: The warm-up

[Andalusian girls]

Curious if the combination of her devastating non-indictment and the RNC convention will produce enough of a bump to at least temporarily put Trump ahead in the horse race polling averages.

she may never recover from it. it's literally the worst thing that could have happened to her.

[Krandor]

100% certain people will make the "Extremely Careless" = "Extremely Negligent" argument in the coming days/weeks.

Gross negligence is the exact wording, and yeah there is likely be a big debate that phrase. In standard English the two are pretty much interchangeable, but not so much in legal terms.

Kind of like Tom Brady being "generally aware" of the Deflategate stuff

she may never recover from it. it's literally the worst thing that could have happened to her.

Well, a straight up recommendation to indict would be worse. But for a non indictment Comey's speech was about as bad as it could get. He straight up listed all the ways she broke or potentially broke the law, but since there was no intent (even though intent shouldn't matter) she gets to go free.

[Sho]

Gross negligence is the exact wording, and yeah there is likely be a big debate that phrase. In standard English the two are pretty much interchangeable, but not so much in legal terms.

Kind of like Tom Brady being "generally aware" of the Deflategate stuff.

Right, right. Essentially looking from an objective standpoint you could be led to even question if the FBI purposefully used that wording as well.

[Sho]

Also Obama on his 2008 swag.

Making me think he's the one running for President for a 3rd term right now.

Preacher-in-Chief this guy.

Like for real this man is crushing it.

[Quicklet]

Indictment or no, personally I consider this whole email thing worse then any of what you listed here. Her handling of classified information being labeled as "extremely careless" (to say nothing of the specifics Comey went in to) with no punishment is a huge slap in the face to anyone who handles that kind of stuff.

There's even precedent that "no intent" isn't a valid excuse.

https://www.fbi.gov/sacramento/press...fied-materials

Two years probation and revoked security clearance for storing classified material on an unclassified system, even though the investigation found no intent to distribute the information to unauthorized personnel.

[Krandor]

Right, right. Essentially looking from an objective standpoint you could be led to even question if the FBI purposefully used that wording as well.

It wouldn't surprise me in the slightest. CNN has an article on their front page that collects the phrases that Hillary is going to have used against her in this.

1. "Extremely careless"
2. "Should have known"
3. "Especially concerning"
4. "Still obligated to protect it"
5. "Generally lacking"
6. "Hostile actors"
7. "Sophisticated adversaries"

There's even precedent that "no intent" isn't a valid excuse.

https://www.fbi.gov/sacramento/press...fied-materials

Two years probation and revoked security clearance for storing classified material on an unclassified system, even though the investigation found no intent to distribute the information to unauthorized personnel.

With the way Comey worded everything it effectively fell in a grey area (so par for the course for the Clintons). Taking this line from his speech - "in violation of a federal statute making it a felony to mishandle classified information either intentionally or in a grossly negligent way", the FBI couldn't prove intent. What they did find, while again described as "extremely careless" didn't fall under the legal definition of gross negligence.

[thetruepandagod]

Semantics are a delight.

[Sho]

Semantics is everything when politics and the legal system intersect.

[ringthree]

how did you nerds not lead with this



0% chance she gets prosecuted.

Pretty sure because we all knew that already?

[ringthree]

it is a clear violation of federal election law to solicit or accept donations from foreign nationals, but as far as i know the FEC has taken no position on it and i imagine is unlikely to come down harshly as he apparently raised no actual money from the e-mails and can easily claim they were sent on accident, which they may very well have been given the somewhat random foreign politicians they targeted.

The emails were directed at foreign nationals. Like they were in reference to Brexit and how it effected their country.

[ringthree]

Only because it's true -- Clinton still has her skeletons in the closet, which don't include Benghazi. Like Whitewater, Clinton Foundation speeches, & standing behind her husband with NAFTA (which will likely be Trump's final line of attack against her). There's also small time shit like Foggy Bottom and Sidney Blumenthal being a lowkey informal adviser to the family outside of Obama's wishes. She also covertly paved her way through the DNC (since 2008) to ensure she'd be the eventual Democratic candidate in 2016. There's a reason why her she still has low numbers when it pertains to trust issues.

Still, she is worlds better than someone like Trump who uses overt race baiting, bigotry and misogyny on his march to the Presidency.

With that said, watching FOX News is AMAZING right now. So many angry pundits, lol.

Whitewater? Really? That's digging pretty deep to find fault.

For Trump, you just need the weekly headlines.

[ringthree]

You've got me there, it's still a very bad and black mark on her record. Actually on FOX Rudy Giuliani is going into what you said with legalese right now. I agree with the part that if it wasn't Clinton, lesser people would have had the book thrown at them with it being a felony (also sounds like this will be FOX's big trumpet to blow against her going into November).

While I do find Trump very intelligent in his channeling the darkside of the American people to his gain, it's really unsettling to me that he can do it in such a manner that is below the dignity and decorum of the office of POTUS. I'm still in with Clinton knowing that it'll effectively be a 3rd Obama Administration.

Do you really think the FBI is so corrupt they wouldn't be pursuing wrong doing by Clinton? That's some cynical shit right there.

[Sho]

Whitewater? Really? That's digging pretty deep to find fault.

For Trump, you just need the weekly headlines.

Understand, I'm looking at it not only objectively, but directly through the eyes of her opponents. When we are in an environment where Clinton's main opponent is using her husband's infidelities against her, anything goes.

They will drum up any scandal or fault in not only Clinton's term as Secretary of State, but also Bill's ideas and administration.

[ringthree]

Understand, I'm looking at it not only objectively, but directly through the eyes of her opponents. When we are in an environment where Clinton's main opponent is using her husband's infidelities against her, anything goes.

They will drum up any scandal or fault in not only Clinton's term as Secretary of State, but also Bill's ideas and administration.

But narratives like that aren't really aimed at their opponents they are aimed at swing voters. Anyone that thinks that Whitewater or Monica Lewinsky matters already decided how they were going to vote long ago (like a decade ago).

It's not a winning narrative. Honestly, I don't think the whole "Crooked Hillary" narrative is a winner. Even if it motivates the base, it peels the center of the Republican party, and that is before you even get to purple voters.

In the end, I think this election is going to be pretty boring. The hard cap on Trump is lower than Hillary's hard bottom.

[Sho]

Do you really think the FBI is so corrupt they wouldn't be pursuing wrong doing by Clinton? That's some cynical shit right there.

I'm not saying they are so corrupt at all, only that they may or may not have their own agenda that is favored if Clinton is president over a potential Trump administration.

It wouldn't be unfounded or wrong to take an examination of Director Comey's statement if you are on the GOP side -- he basically blasted Clinton as a negligent person but didn't go so far as to recommend charges against her. The ironic thing is that Republicans actually like Director Comey, so they may all take him at his word for it not having malicious intent against the country (like Petraeus), but gives them a gigantic "negligence" word hammer to use for months to come.

[Sho]

But narratives like that aren't really aimed at their opponents they are aimed at swing voters. Anyone that thinks that Whitewater or Monica Lewinsky matters already decided how they were going to vote long ago (like a decade ago).

It's not a winning narrative. Honestly, I don't think the whole "Crooked Hillary" narrative is a winner. Even if it motivates the base, it peels the center of the Republican party, and that is before you even get to purple voters.

In the end, I think this election is going to be pretty boring. The hard cap on Trump is lower than Hillary's hard bottom.

In this election, swing voters and undecideds may make all the difference. Also, Trump has a very inventive way of saying shit to rile people up, then falling back on the statement on television as a lie or overtly blaming the media or some other unsuspecting person/group.

I wouldn't know the metrics behind the effectiveness of "Crooked Hillary," but I can imagine that it's not as impactful as his other monikers during the primaries as well. So I completely agree with you there.

I think the election will be slightly better than 2008, but not as epic as 2000. The unfavorables on both candidates makes for bad, but they are still the last two standing. I expect there to be a hyper raucous DNC convention and a realllllly reallllly interesting RNC convention. Between the sure to happen riots outside and the awkwardness of the GOP delegates inside, it will make for interesting television for sure.

[kuronosan]

What he said was she's essentially shitty but they can't prove intent so they're not going to charge her.

It's like Casey Anthony. People pissed she wasn't found guilty but there has to be a case.

[Minions]

What he said was she's essentially shitty but they can't prove intent so they're not going to charge her.

It's like Casey Anthony. People pissed she wasn't found guilty but there has to be a case.

Don't forget he also slammed the entire State Department for their information security, something that shouldn't be a surprise considering what we knew already. They lacked policies, and the ones in place were not enforced.

A person in Mrs. Clinton’s position, he declared, “should have known that an unclassified system was no place” for the emails she was sending and receiving. Although the findings raised troubling questions about the laxness of security at the State Department, Mr. Comey said the F.B.I. did not find conduct suggesting “intentional misconduct or indications of disloyalty to the United States or efforts to obstruct justice."

[archibaldcrane]

Supposedly Trump will reveal all the speakers at the Republican convention tomorrow.

[Minions]

Supposedly Trump will reveal all the speakers at the Republican convention tomorrow.

So he found some celebrities willing to show up then?