2016 USA Presidential election thread I: The warm-up

[Krandor]

It's also probably safe to assume that in a week or two Trump will tweet out something stupid again and any gains he makes in the polls will be gone.

[archibaldcrane]

nor will the lack of criminal charges bring back those already convinced of her immorality.

I read this as "immortality" and thought "well, usually it's 'inevitability' but if you want to cast her as a Highlander I'm down."

[archibaldcrane]

It's also probably safe to assume that in a week or two Trump will tweet out something stupid again and any gains he makes in the polls will be gone.

Doesn't even have to be a tweet, in less than two weeks the Republican convention will begin, sweeping this all away. Hell, simply announcing the speakers at the convention tomorrow will take over the news cycle.

[kuronosan]

i think both sides are grossly overestimating the impact this will have on her prospects despite the gleeful crowing of bitter Berners and South Park cynics who view politics through the prism of /edge/theworldisadarkcorruptplace/ilistenedtotoomuchmychemicalromancegrowingup. her supporters will see it as validation that what she did was ill-advised but not illegal and the 'threat of indictment' card that her enemies have been playing against her continuously is now bust; her enemies will assume political horse trading and raw political power are the only things keeping her out of a prison cell and use Comey's comments as further proof that she is ill-suited for office.

even the suggestion that DoJ ought prosecute would have been a game changer, the official investigation stating she was careless and stupid but not criminal merely affirms everyone's extant narrative. that is to say the scandal has greatly damaged her (and was going to be used as an attack line by Trump no matter what the FBI said), but it will not damage her worse than it already has, nor will the lack of criminal charges bring back those already convinced of her immorality.

Weren't you posting earlier that this will be damaging to her campaign?

I guess that was trolling. Right? Yep?

Okay. Next thread of thought. Maybe I read you wrong in that now you're clarifying that this has already damaged her as much as it ever will.

[Krandor]

Doesn't even have to be a tweet, in less than two weeks the Republican convention will begin, sweeping this all away. Hell, simply announcing the speakers at the convention tomorrow will take over the news cycle.

It'll be major fuel for any debates or attack ads for the entire remainder of the election. Maybe not dominating the news cycle but this is never going away.

[Minions]

It'll be major fuel for any debates or attack ads for the entire remainder of the election. Maybe not dominating the news cycle but this is never going away.

I think you are overestimating the impact. Clinton (in my opinion) has expected this outcome in its entirety. She knew she would be scorned as Comey has a HUGE disdain for the Clintons. It looming was worse for her, than it finally coming to a conclusion. As long as Hilary and Obama keep giving speeches like they did today, Trump is going to look like another "out of touch" and "reaching" republican. They will target this scandal in the same way Benghazi was and how much money and time were wasted on both of them. The only people affected by this, are people that were already on the Trump train.

[Krandor]

Given the nature of Comey's speech it was about as bad as it could get without an actual recommendation to indict. I would assume a lot of people were looking at this is more of a binary situation.

[Minions]

Given the nature of Comey's speech it was about as bad as it could get without an actual recommendation to indict. I would assume a lot of people were looking at this is more of a binary situation.

Anyone who expected less than that from Comey who has been trying to nail the Clintons for decades is delusional. They expected to be lambasted.

[Krandor]

Considering the general reaction people had to the announcement of the press conference this morning I'd say it's safe to assume a lot of people didn't expect it.

[archibaldcrane]

This "scandal" is what, 9 months old now? I'm not sure what has happened that isn't already baked-in.

[archibaldcrane]

Considering the general reaction people had to the announcement of the press conference this morning I'd say it's safe to assume a lot of people didn't expect it.

Sure, there's some harsh language in there, but you have to understand that a large minority of people thought she was going to be indicted today. I think it's hard to argue that the sum total hurts her.

[6souls]

Spoiler: show

[Krandor]

Sure, there's some harsh language in there, but you have to understand that a large minority of people thought she was going to be indicted today. I think it's hard to argue that the sum total hurts her.

I'd argue that what happened today is what most against her in this assumed would happen from the start, that she should be indicted but won't be. And yes most of what was said today was already known due a large portion of the emails being out in the open, but Comey did also shoot down even more of Clinton's statements about the situation as lies. http://bigstory.ap.org/article/6ee62...nder-fbi-probe

[ringthree]

Man, you gotta quote who you're responding to, lol.

Shit, fuck. Sorry.

[Sho]

Actually, people discussing about Comey's use of "Extremely Careless" right now on CNN -- exactly what Krandor & I were talking about an hour earlier. Everyone came to the conclusion that it's literally the same as "Extreme Negligence" and questioned the wording change. Take it for what you will.

Shit, fuck. Sorry.

That's more like it! Good man.

[Krandor]

Actually, people discussing about Comey's use of "Extremely Careless" right now on CNN -- exactly what Krandor & I were talking about an hour earlier. Everyone came to the conclusion that it's literally the same as "Extreme Negligence" and questioned the wording change. Take it for what you will.

It's legalese. Extremely Careless doesn't directly mean a conscious and voluntary effort, which is a required portion of the legal definition of gross negligence. I mean, it's fantastic that we now have a precedent that being dumb as shit makes it ok to mishandle classified information as long as you didn't consciously do it. Though to be fair I and probably 99% of other people with clearance have done something like that to an infinitely lesser degree (like leaving my cellphone in my pocket when i walk into a secure space)

Every square is a rectangle but not every rectangle is a square etc etc

[kuronosan]

I dunno, just listening to the laundry list of callers on C-SPAN expressing disappointment has me wondering.

Ultimately I think nothing will come of this, I guess. I ran over to the Bernie reddit and it's FILLED with posts that "haven't given up hope".

It's like... he lost. She's not going to be indicted. Let's get this shit over with.

[Sho]

It's legalese. Extremely Careless doesn't directly mean a conscious and voluntary effort, which is a required portion of the legal definition of gross negligence. I mean, it's fantastic that we now have a precedent that being dumb as shit makes it ok to mishandle classified information as long as you didn't consciously do it. Though to be fair I and probably 99% of other people with clearance have done something like that to an infinitely lesser degree (like leaving my cellphone in my pocket when i walk into a secure space)

Every square is a rectangle but not every rectangle is a square etc etc

I'm with ya on it, but one doesn't need much more of a reason to begin to question why, which was what I was getting at originally.

Either way despite not being indicted, she'll still be attacked on all sides on this.

[Rooney]

C-span callers are not a very good representation of the country either. People that care enough to call in are also the people that decide very early who they're voting for.

[Sho]

Trump just said that Bernie lost the "FBI Primary", then proceeded to state that all of his supporters are going to vote for him instead of Clinton.