2016 USA Presidential election thread I: The warm-up

[Not Kuno]

Biden is more "popular" than Hillary in some regards but she does have a huge base. Biden running only helps Sanders.

[Quicklet]

Congress came back from recess this week and I've just come from my first fundraiser of the season. The fundraiser was for an entrenched good ole boy and we were joined by a member of House Leadership. We spent a lot of time talking about the upcoming election. These guys are terrified of Trump. The good ol' boy said his constituents (farmers, oil, main st.) are absolutely in love with Trump and he doesnt understand how his people can be so in love with a property developer from new york.

Both legislators also gave Bernie his due but think they will squash him in the GE. They sounded like they thought he could beat hillary in the primary and the only thing that would fuck it up is Biden announcing.

also people are being more and more candid about the possibility of a shutdown in Oct. Before they left they would laugh it off, now they are offering real responses (that still say nothing). There were rumors in august that the shutdown may hinge on the defunding of planned parenthood but at the time only 18 republicans had signed on. who knows, going to be an exciting couple of months.

Anyone talk about the debt ceiling fight yet? That's coming up pretty soon after the government funding issue, and unless Republicans lose catastrophically on the Planned Parenthood stuff it's hard to see them willing to go along quietly with another debt ceiling raise.

[tyven]

Anyone talk about the debt ceiling fight yet? That's coming up pretty soon after the government funding issue, and unless Republicans lose catastrophically on the Planned Parenthood stuff it's hard to see them willing to go along quietly with another debt ceiling raise.

I haven't heard a peep about what the GOP plans to hold hostage in exchange for a debt limit increase. Many of my conservative colleagues are tearing their hair out that abortion seems to be the hill these clowns have chosen to die on.

[Buffy]

While I think abortion is murder (not trying to pick a fight, personal belief, moving on) how would that even get overturned at this point? You would need either what?

1. An activist (or radically conservative) supreme court to overturn Roe v. Wade (never gonna happen).
2. A constitutional amendment, right? Which requires what? two-thirds of the congress and senate to agree on one, then submit it to the states and 38/50 states ratify it?

I mean, neither of those things are gonna happen without.....crap, I can't think of something realistic that would make either of those things happen.

We lost that fight, 40 years ago. Can we move on please?

Tyven makes me depressed about politics cause he speaks the truth.

[Gredival]

Tyven are you a staffer on the Hill or?

[tyven]

i am a lobbyist

[Tyrath]

A new challenger has appeared

http://www.businessinsider.com/john-...r-party-2015-9

Cybersecurity legend John McAfee just founded his own political party so he can run for president

[Sho]

i am a lobbyist

It's great isn't it?

I miss lobbying in Austin and hobnobbing with politicians and hearing issues. I'm looking into getting some work in here in New York, but I need to catch up on the issues. Fracking is a bitch.

Let us know how your peoples feel after the upcoming debate. I'm am VERY certain the field will change completely, if Trump takes a hit. I'm also pretty sure Biden will announce his bid on or right after the debate as well. Just a hunch.

[tyven]

he should announce it tonight on colbert

[kuronosan]

Is Biden going to hurt Hillary or Bernie?

[Cantih]

Most sources have said that Biden entering will hurt Hilary and make Bernie more competitive.

[Anoat]

he should announce it tonight on colbert

Well I don't know if you saw his appearance on Colbert but Biden pretty much talked himself out of running for pres right there on television. Still a lot of time between now and the deadline but the dude did NOT sound like he had the heart to make a run.

[tyven]

Well I don't know if you saw his appearance on Colbert but Biden pretty much talked himself out of running for pres right there on television. Still a lot of time between now and the deadline but the dude did NOT sound like he had the heart to make a run.

Very interesting. I didn't watch and just woke up so this is the first thing I've seen on it.

[Byrthnoth]

Could be emotionally manipulating the buildup to his announcement, but that doesn't seem like Uncle Joe's style.

[archibaldcrane]

He's simply waiting in the wings in case Hillary has a real scandal and can't go on.

[Tyrath]

Based on polls I keep seeing of the public's perception of Hillary I don't think she will require a real scandal to not win x.x

[Salodin]

CNN was all over that. They mention how Biden basically said "eh" to running, and they love him because he's so personable and "a good person". Then some one says Hilary is personable too but just mostly keeps her emotions to herself and no one seemed to care because she comes off as cold.

Hilldog keeps losing points this far out; I can see Biden jumping in to save the dems incase too many people just can't relate to her.

[Gredival]

Basically the reason why Biden detracts more from Hillary is that he's a "legitimate" alternative to her than Sanders never could be, and for all intents and purposes he's a pretty good candidate (just not heir apparent). They'd basically split the moderate vote, allowing to let Sanders slip by with the liberal bloc.

The problem for Sanders is that Biden isn't Hillary, which seems to be why 50% of his supporters are on his side over Hillary's. In a three-way race Biden helps Sanders, but if we were to assume Hillary was out completely, I think less of Hillary's supporters go to Sanders than Sanders' supporters eventually defect to Biden.

Remember these are primaries. The party elites want the moderate candidate because they want to win the general election. The passionate grass-roots are pushing the fringe candidate because they drank the Kool-Aid.

[zoobernut]

Basically the reason why Biden detracts more from Hillary is that he's a "legitimate" alternative to her than Sanders never could be, and for all intents and purposes he's a pretty good candidate (just not heir apparent). They'd basically split the moderate vote, allowing to let Sanders slip by with the liberal bloc.

The problem for Sanders is that Biden isn't Hillary, which seems to be why 50% of his supporters are on his side over Hillary's. In a three-way race Biden helps Sanders, but if we were to assume Hillary was out completely, I think less of Hillary's supporters go to Sanders than Sanders' supporters eventually defect to Biden.

Remember these are primaries. The party elites want the moderate candidate because they want to win the general election. The passionate grass-roots are pushing the fringe candidate because they drank the Kool-Aid.

But man that Bernie Kool-Aid is delicious!

[notorious bum]

It's from my understanding, that in many states Bernie is stealing all age groups and income groups from Hillary, except the coveted 65+ dinosaurs and above $100k'ers.