2015-16 NFL Week 13: A Long December

[Bregor]

Last week:

M/L: 8-8
ATS: 7-9

Overall:

M/L: 102-74
ATS: 83-87-6



THURSDAY, DECEMBER 3RD

8:25pm EST, CBS/NFL Network

Green Bay at Detroit (+5.5) - So Green Bay is bad now I guess? No, they just got unlucky with turnovers in the rain. But looking up at Minnesota in the standings and with the Lions upset win at Lambeau fresh in their minds, the Pack should be ready. Two games ago they opened it up against the Vikes on the road, and there's no reason to think they can't do it against an inferior defense in Detroit. Packers win and cover.


SUNDAY, DECEMBER 6TH

1:00pm EST, CBS

NY Jets at NY Giants (+2) - Darrelle Revis is likely out, so expect a big day from Ol' Dirty Beckham Jr. Then again, he had a big day against the 'Skins and it went for naught. The Giants defense is good at creating turnovers but ranks poorly in Defense DVOA, meaning they could have trouble containing GMARSH and Ivory. The Battle of the Meadowlands MetLife is always interesting, but I'll go with the favorite here. Jets win and cover.

Houston at Buffalo (-3) - I've got to hand it to Bill O'Brien. After Hard Knocks documented his less than stellar offensive talent and a 2-5 start to the season, his Texans have rattled off four straight wins are are currently in a wild card spot. Last week JJ Watt had two sacks and eight QB hits (!) as they held Drew Brees without a passing TD. Buffalo has dropped two straight and also has three home losses (plus one more "home game" in London) on their résumé. Rex Ryan was supposed to flourish with the Bills defensive personnel but they're pretty mediocre when it comes to points and yards allowed per game. The best unit on the field is Houston's defense, which has given up just 35 points total during their four-game win streak. I'll take the Texans in the upset.

Baltimore at Miami (-4) - It took a punt return TD and a blocked field goal return TD for the Ravens to beat Cleland on Monday night. Outside of that, Matt Schaub and the Ravens offense had two turnovers, went 2-for-11 on 3rd down, and generally looked bad offensively against a shitty Browns defense. Miami has fired just about every coach they can in some attempt to hold the team accountable for their 4-7 record. They have plenty of talent but rank 27th in the league in both yards and points scored. No one should be forced to watch this game but I guess I'll hedge and say Dolphins win, Ravens with the points.

Jacksonville at Tennessee (-2.5) - Alas, the three-game win streak was not to be for the Jags. They let Felipe Rios torch them for 300 and 4, and Jacksonville just couldn't keep up. The Titans dropped a heartbreaker to Oakland to remain winless at home. After this game they only host Houston, so this is their best chance to give the fans in Nashville a W. Jacksonville is a little banged up so I'll pick the Titans to win and cover.

1:00pm EST, FOX

Arizona at St. Louis (+5.5) - Arizona (and the refs) beat San Fran for their fifth straight win, maintaining their three-game lead over Seattle. It's a mark of a great team that they can get wins when things don't go according to plan. The Rams are bad and want to leave St. Louis, and I can't say I blame them. Maybe they can leave all their quarterbacks behind when the moving vans pull away. Teams don't run much on Arizona but there's always a chance Gurley could go nuts like he did in their first matchup. I'll take the Cardinals to win, Rams with the points.

Atlanta at Tampa Bay (-2) - The Falcons have dropped four straight to a soft schedule of teams, and now they try to avenge their loss to Tampa. Three turnovers and the inability to stop the run cost them against Minny last week, putting them in a must-win game now that Seattle has lapped them for a wild card spot. The Bucs were nowhere to be found in the 2nd half against Indy last week, giving up 19 unanswered points. That doesn't indicate a hungry team, and I think Atlanta takes advantage. Falcons win and cover.

Seattle at Minnesota (PK) - Don't look now but Seattle has scored 100 points total in their last three games. That explosive element is what they really needed to balance out a defense that looks a step slower this season. Minny's defense is top-notch but will need to put up some serious points here and next week at Arizona. Adrian Deterson still looks fresh thanks to his, um, vacation last year. This will be a slugfest, but I'll ride the hot hand and take the Seahawks in the pick'em.

Cincinnati at Cleveland (+9.5) - Cincy is 8-0 during the day, and is playing Cleland. Bet the house. Bengals win and cover.

San Francisco at Chicago (-7) - Blaine Gabbert and the 49ers offense (still feels weird writing that) went 0-for-9 on 3rd down in last week's loss to Arizona. So blame the refs all you want, at the end of the day they just stink. Chicago has won three of their last four and gave Denver all they could handle in that loss. I guess John Fox and Adam Gase are better than the TRASHMAN after all. Bears win, 49ers with the points.

4:05pm EST, CBS

Denver at San Diego (+4) - America should hold a parade for Denver in honor of fucking Tom and the rest of the Patriots on Sunday night. It was truly a thing of beauty. Also that defense held the Pats to 301 total years and 2-for-13 on 3rd down. San Diego won last week as the wheels of NFL business turn towards Los Angeles. I can understand Oakland and St. Louis wanting to move to LA, but San Diego is fucking beautiful. I thought it was a bluff out of the "wah wah buy us a new stadium with tax money" playbook but apparently they actually want to leave. Shameful. Broncos win and cover.

Kansas City at Oakland (+3) - The best team in the NFL according to Weighted DVOA is... your Kansas City Chiefs. Five straight wins will do that. The offense had a big, turnover-free day against Buffalo despite missing their top two running backs, and now they sit as the top wild card team in the AFC. Oakland needed a last-minute touchdown to beat the Titans last week, haven't had much production from Latavius Murray recently, and aren't great on defense. This looks like FREE MONEY to me. Chiefs win and cover.

4:25pm EST, FOX

Carolina at New Orleans (+7) - I wish I could post an Instagram video but seriously click this link. How can you not love Cam at this point? I think the one-loss joke has run its course so I'll just say I hope they go 19-0. The Saints are bad and have no business making this game close. So of course they'll probably end Carolina's run. But the smart money is on the Panthers to win and cover.

Philadelphia at New England (-9.5) -



lol. Belichick after a loss, facing a soft team? Yes, please. Patriots win and cover.

8:30pm EST, NBC

Indianapolis at Pittsburgh (???) - No line for this game since no one knows if Big Ben is ded. I might post more later but I still like the Steelers to win.


MONDAY, DECEMBER 7TH

8:30pm EST, ESPN

Dallas at Washington (-4.5) - So that whole "wait for Romo to save the season" thing didn't work out, huh? WOMP WOMP. Now all the stories are "TRADE FOR MANZIEL! TRADE FOR KAEPERNICK!" That'll work. Washington is bad but in the NFC East's continuing efforts to shit up the league they beat the Giants last week. Hell, even Dallas is still alive with two games against Washington and one in Philly left. CONTRACT THE NFC EAST. Redskins win, Cowboys with the points.

[Wulfgang]

Can't wait for Tyrod to get planted into the turf 15x by Watt

[Marootsoobutsu]

Can't wait for Tyrod to get planted into the turf 15x by Watt

Watt is on pace to out-sack the entire Buffalo front seven. And he has more QB hits.

Then again, Watt has more sacks than the whole of the Falcons and the Giants.

[Churchill]

I think AZ finds a way to lose, their playcalling was shit last week.

Unlike Sith Lord Patriot, Aryans likes to avoid playing to his teams strength. A healthy Floyd and Brown last week and like one deep ball because the week before the Seahawks ran all over the 49ers. Obviously that wasn't working in the first half, but fuck it let's not change anything.

The only good news is Powers is finally out (he's been playing hurt all year anyway) and I think Bethel is a year one PP and that's good enough in this league.

[ninjafox]

Jesus Christ, the Redskins are gonna stay in front this week ..... and probably the rest of the season....

[Cail]

Can't wait to watch the Panthers on Sunday again! Oh wait, I'm in CT so I have to watch shitty teams with losses

[Cail]

Can't wait to watch the Panthers on Sunday again! Oh wait, I'm in CT so I have to watch shitty teams with losses

Oh and instead of SEA-MIN we get the shit ass browns lol

[Kalmado]

I'm really hoping for a good game tonight with a pissed off AR12 and a revived Lions offense with The Cooter. Word on local radio has been Lions players don't care about the front office & coaching changes, but that sounds like PR talk. I'm betting many of these guys are thinking if they don't step up they're next on the chopping block (and with good reason). Hope this is entertaining.

[Serra]

Need more AR12 anger. Although I'd take a defensive shootout as well.

[Headspace]

Oh and instead of SEA-MIN we get the shit ass browns lol

You mean the Red Head Revolver


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[Serra]

Or that..

[Krandor]

So, are the Lions good now?

[tyven]

Jim Bob Cooter going to be the hottest HC candidate this off season

[Serra]

So, are the Lions good now?

Think it might be the other option tonight..

[Akiyama]

How has Green bay gotten so shitty.. is Rodgers hurt? I mean we know they have like no one at WR, but then again, Tom Brady has more nobodies + Gronk.

[Mythe_Seraph]

Packers losing on one screen. Blackhawks playing decent on the other. Life is good.

[Salodin]

Green Bay at Detroit (+5.5) - So Green Bay is bad now I guess? No, they just got unlucky with turnovers in the rain. But looking up at Minnesota in the standings and with the Lions upset win at Lambeau fresh in their minds, the Pack should be ready. Two games ago they opened it up against the Vikes on the road, and there's no reason to think they can't do it against an inferior defense in Detroit. Packers win and cover.

Just read this. Laughing hard with my 20/20 hindsight.

[Roranora]

Not sure GB will beat the Romo-less Cowboys now.. sheesh.

[Marootsoobutsu]

Why is Green Bay down 20 to Detroit? Football doesn't make any sense.

[Roranora]

obvious playmakers John Crockett and Richard Rodgers finally getting going a little bit

god damn what a mess