Local Elections

[Rooney]

If you want to gauge support based on signs in lawns, Cruz is getting slaughtered in all the neighborhoods around me (fairly conservative, wealthy, and very religious area). 17 Beto signs to 1 Cruz on my drive today. It's encouraging, but it's a statewide race in Texas. And there are soooo many rednecks.

[Mina]

Most of my moderate conservative friends at least generally like the guy. One has already told me they plan on voting for him because he seems like a real Texan. What will matter is the turnout when it comes to actually voting however. He’s been to every shitty county in Texas (254 of these fucking things) so he’s put himself everywhere he could.

Edit: annoyed that some people like him for pretty superficial reasons but whatever.

Edit: no matter how hopeful or promising things get I’m playing this like we are going to lose if people don’t go out and do something.

[arus2001]

Well, Bernie was popular, too, but we know how that went. I'm hoping Beto wins, but at the same time, just winning doesn't guarantee he'll be able to do good cuz rah rah checks 'n balances 'n shit.

[Mina]

I’m in a county that is deeply conservative. There’s like a church every 2 miles. I’m still hearing a lot of positive buzz on Beto. That didn’t happen the last time Cruz campaigned for his seat. That’s why I’m pretty hopeful.

I think a Bernie vs Trump election would have been way different than Hillary vs Trump.

[Rooney]

I may be in the more liberal Houston, but Cruz is literally doing almost jack shit all to campaign (at least here) so far, and is being out-raised almost 3-1 in individual contributions. I have seen one ad from him on TV. Nothing on radio or internet. My area has two synagogues (one orthodox), and at least a couple churches in walking distance. It's also very white, wealthy, and religious. This should absolutely be his base. If he's not seeing visible support here, I would think he has a major issue on hand. He's an incumbent with name recognition that won his initial election by ~15%.

That said this is Texas, but a lot of people despise him. I fully expect it to be a close race given the circumstances. If Beto pulls off an upset, I fully expect him to not be re-elected next go around unless he pulls some major public wins for Texas as a first-time senator.

[Mina]

All of it is true but the last sentence is very true as well. Beto needs to do great things to get re-elected but I feel like beating Cruz is not as high of an order with how frustrated Texans are with Cruz.

I haven’t heard shit from Cruz and I’ve seen ads and heard ads from Beto. The only way I find out about Cruz is through his Twitter and searching online. (He’s been doing a great job promoting Beto)
I’m waiting for Cruz+Trump to come here but seems like Cruz hasn’t had time to campaign at all in my area.
Edit: Beto also shook my hand and listened to my nonsense for 10 minutes. I kept telling myself I wanted to take a picture and in the whole moment I forgot. It’s like when you plan on taking pictures on a vacation and you don’t.

[Zetanio]

All of it is true but the last sentence is very true as well. Beto needs to do great things to get re-elected but I feel like beating Cruz is not as high of an order with how frustrated Texans are with Cruz.

I haven’t heard shit from Cruz and I’ve seen ads and heard ads from Beto. The only way I find out about Cruz is through his Twitter and searching online. (He’s been doing a great job promoting Beto)
I’m waiting for Cruz+Trump to come here but seems like Cruz hasn’t had time to campaign at all in my area.

All I can say is that I actually hope Beto wins. The Zodiac killer doesn't deserve it.

[Mina]

All I can say is that I actually hope Beto wins. The Zodiac killer doesn't deserve it.

I haven’t lived in Texas my whole life but if there’s anything a Texan loves it’s someone from Texas. Beto is campaigning hard by being as Texan as possible. His sign looks like a Whataburger ketchup packet. Do you know how much Texans love Whataburger? That shit is bumping at every hour and sometimes it’s wrapped around at the oddest hours. Whenever Cruz throws an insult at him he owns it. Also can you imagine all 254 counties? 321 town halls held? **Edit: He isn’t done yet, he’s coming back but I’m busy that day **

Of course Cruz will get lots of votes. No doubt. But this isn’t going to run like the last time Cruz ran. Who did he even run against? I don’t remember because of all the overwhelming ads for Cruz. This year? Nothing. Silence. All I hear is women who talk about how cute Beto looks or how he’s a sweet Texas boy.


https://www.google.com/amp/amp.star-...216168085.html


If Beto doesn’t win no one can until there’s a bigger shift in Texas years down the line.

[Stromgarde]

This is true, Beto is dominating in terms of physical presence in the city (also Houston in my case); Cruz and the Republicans seem to be focusing advertising on traditional media, e.g. radio and television. I was at the hospital earlier this morning and on the local CBS affiliate there was, back to back, an Abbott (governor) border fearmongering ad, followed by a Beto smear ad, and then another smear ad targeting Lizzie Fletcher, our Democratic congressional candidate. This was followed up by a sickening Q&A legal segment on the local news where a lady from River Oaks (rich part of town) asked if Kavenaugh had grounds to sue Dr. Ford for defamation. I really hope that the physical presence in the city is more indicative of public sentiment, but as Rooney said; it's a big state with a lot of rednecks.

[Rooney]

I should say, in my area (very Jewish and religious in general) I have seen 17 Beto signs to 1 Cruz sign. That is extremely telling to me. I'm surrounded by orthodox religious people, and Cruz isn't seeing the support he needs here.

[Mina]

Cruz doesn’t have time to even campaign thanks to them not taking a break from a Congress.
We were supposed to have another debate on the 30th but obv that’s not happening.

[Salodin]

Cruz doesn’t have time to even campaign thanks to them not taking a break from a Congress.
We were supposed to have another debate on the 30th but obv that’s not happening.

You can thank McConnell for keeping the senate in action this long. They shouldve been campaigning this whole time.

[6souls]

https://www.mprnews.org/story/2018/0...oids-marijuana

MN Dem & Rep candidates for Gov show that they both lack education on marijuana. Tim Walz (D) supports recreational because it's the party line, but with conditions because he doesn't want to add another addictive substance to the market and he supports the expansion of medical marijuana. Jeff Johnson (R) is against recreational marijuana because he doesn't want to add another addictive substance to the market and he is for the expansion of medical marijuana with smokeable being an option.

[Fiye]

https://twitter.com/PatriciaMazzei/s...76834894999552

Sounds like Puerto Rico Gov. @ricardorossello will endorse Florida @SenBillNelson in Orlando tomorrow Rosselló is a fellow Democrat, though Puerto Rico’s parties align based on the island’s status, and Rosselló has been publicly friendly with Nelson’s GOP opponent, @FLGovScott

[Fiye]

Beto raised a million dollars in less than 5 hours.

https://www.reddit.com/r/BlueMidterm...hours_meets_6/

[Zealot]

Fivethirtyeight has Democratic chances of retaking the House and Senate down by several points each this morning.

[archibaldcrane]

The poll with Menendez only up 2 shook the model.

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[Fiye]

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/...-review-855385

Texas Senate candidate Beto O’Rourke is apologizing for once criticizing a Broadway musical with actresses “whose only qualifications seem to be their phenomenally large breasts and tight buttocks.”

In 1991, the 19-year-old O’Rourke reviewed the Broadway musical “The Will Rogers Follies” for the Columbia Daily Spectator, the university’s student newspaper. Writing under the byline Robert O’Rourke, he panned the performance as “one of the most glaring examples of the sickening excesses and moral degradations of our culture.”

He went on to bemoan the bevy of “perma-smile actresses whose only qualifications seem to be their phenomenally large breasts and tight buttocks.”

[Byrthnoth]

I honestly don't know whether that would help or hurt him with Texans in the middle.

[Zealot]

Fivethirtyeight is now projecting that Heitkamp will lose her bid for re-election, putting Democrats at a less than 30% chance of retaking the Senate. Their chances of flipping the House have gone down a few more points as well.