2016 USA Presidential election thread II: And. Here. We. Go!

[Gredival]

In other news

North Carolina: Trump 44%, Clinton 43% (Elon)

Nevada: Trump 42%, Clinton 39% (Rasmussen)

Florida: Clinton 46%, Trump 41% (Monmouth)

Maine: Trump 37%, Clinton 37% (MPRC)

Florida: Clinton 49%, Trump 44% (St. Leo)



Also interesting regarding polls. Five firms using the same raw data produced a net five-point difference depending on their voting model.

We decided to share our raw data with four well-respected pollsters and asked them to estimate the result of the poll themselves ... A net five-point difference between the five measures, including our own, even though all are based on identical data. Remember: There are no sampling differences in this exercise. Everyone is coming up with a number based on the same interviews.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2...lks-about.html

[Gryffes]

No love for Trump +4 in Colorado?

[Quicklet]

Gred, do you think there's too much attention being paid to polling this far out from the election? It's important for the campaigns (though they typically have their own internal polling), but it seems like this election is such an outlier that it's hard to discern how valuable the numbers are pre-debate and 6 weeks out.

[Gredival]

This election is weird. I think that polling at this stage is USUALLY useful, barring an October surprise. Obama had Romney on the ropes at this point in 2012 by hammering him all summer with ads depicting him as the heartless businessman that ate businesses for profit and didn't care what was left behind. The polls showed that and Romney never recovered. The polls showed all of this.

However this cycle it's much harder to create a good model and there's more that can change before election day. First, right now there are two 3rd party candidates who are getting higher than normal levels of attention. Generally third party support will start to wane closer to election day, but it's hard to tell this year because there is abnormally strong NeverTrump/NeverHillary camps. I'm a pessimist, but I believe that the Johnson voters are more likely to jump ship to Trump than the Stein voters will go back to Hillary because I hate my generation.

Second, we've seen for a while that Trump does better in internet polls than live polls because presumably there are a lot of people that don't want to be overt about their support for him since it can be a social taboo. It's just like how some pollsters speculated that Obama might end up under-performing his polling because some people would say they would vote for him when in reality they wouldn't because he's black. There's good reason to believe that Trump's real numbers are between the phone and internet numbers, but the firms can only guess at this and even when you average out all the polls that guesswork is inherently reflected in those numbers.

[Dimmauk]

That's okay. Trump will be tweeting furiously this morning about the "lawless BLM thugs" in Charlotte and how only he can restore law and order, how the police aren't respected enough, and how this is all Obama's fault.

Yup. Mostly because he said this already.

[archibaldcrane]

Because of course it was.

http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-w...former-refugee

[Day]

not rly related to pres campaign

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k9akCvKUVuc

Live steam of epipen hearing

[Headspace]

Trump wants to expand stop and frisk.




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[6souls]

http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-37435844

Don King compares Trump to Muhammad Ali.

[Yuri-G]

That's okay. Trump will be tweeting furiously this morning about the "lawless BLM thugs" in Charlotte and how only he can restore law and order, how the police aren't respected enough, and how this is all Obama's fault.

well... maybe not exactly:


http://reason.com/blog/2016/09/21/tr...-crutcher-shoo


"Was she choking? What happened?" Trump asked in his usual extemporaneous manner. "But maybe people like that, people that choke, people that do that maybe they can't be doing what they're doing, okay? They can't be doing what they're doing."


So basically Trump said that a cop who chokes like that because she's "afraid for her life" when there is no clear and present danger, maybe shouldn't be a cop


...I think we've just entered bizarre world

[kisada]

also says "nigger" at the event which is meant to portray trump as an all-inclusive, non-racist fellow.

[Ghost_Wheel22]

http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-37435844

Don King compares Trump to Muhammad Ali.

"Fred Phelps compares Applewhite to Mother Teresa."

[Tyrath]

1. Its Teresa.
2. She wasn't really the saint she's made out to be

[arus2001]

Looks like Joss Whedon basically did a Hillary support ad. Not reading comments to avoid eye cancer.

[Fondue]

Wtf I hate scarjo now

[kisada]

ya whedon apparently has stopped doing his normal thing for a while to work on these. had enlisted quite a few avengers and other people and is coming out with 25-ish spots in the coming weeks.

[Ghost_Wheel22]

1. Its Teresa.
2. She wasn't really the saint she's made out to be

1. Corrected
2. Ali wasn't the boxing ubermensch he was made out to be either.

[arus2001]

ya whedon apparently has stopped doing his normal thing for a while to work on these. had enlisted quite a few avengers and other people and is coming out with 25-ish spots in the coming weeks.

Just waiting for my Avenger-loving Republican in-law to declare Whedon a traitor on FB while still watching his stuff.

[kuronosan]

1. Corrected
2. Ali wasn't the boxing ubermensch he was made out to be either.

You're a boxing expert too?

[Quicklet]

well... maybe not exactly:


http://reason.com/blog/2016/09/21/tr...-crutcher-shoo


"Was she choking? What happened?" Trump asked in his usual extemporaneous manner. "But maybe people like that, people that choke, people that do that maybe they can't be doing what they're doing, okay? They can't be doing what they're doing."


So basically Trump said that a cop who chokes like that because she's "afraid for her life" when there is no clear and present danger, maybe shouldn't be a cop


...I think we've just entered bizarre world

Don't worry. Trump just has to be in his safe space (Trump Tower or Fox News) to say what he actually thinks now. Trump himself is a choke artist when he comes face to face with "intimidating" minorities like the president of Mexico or a black female pastor. He'll meekly decline to engage, but the humilation will eat at him until he's able to unleash in front of a rally or on Fox and Friends.