2016 USA Presidential election thread II: And. Here. We. Go!

[Gryffes]

Latest round of state polls.

Virginia: Clinton 55%, Trump 36% (Roanoke)

Utah: Trump 53%, Clinton 33% (PPP)

Florida: Clinton 52%, Trump 38% (Saint Leo University)

Missouri: Trump 44%, Clinton 43% (Monmouth)

???


I'm confused why you use the saint leo poll, both RCP and 538 include a newer poll thats been there for a few days.

[zoobernut]

Maybe this is a stupid question, but how does a Visa cost more than 8-13M?

http://www.ustraveldocs.com/in/in-niv-visafeeinfo.asp

$160.

Like, what am I missing? Is there a super secret rich person regulatory path I'm not seeing?

Gred said he was trying to get a visa for a soccer star with a criminal record. The criminal record likely made it impossible for him to get a visa through normal means.

[Krandor]

???


I'm confused why you use the saint leo poll, both RCP and 538 include a newer poll thats been there for a few days.

Because they show a much smaller gap and doesn't fit the narrative

[Quicklet]

Because they show a much smaller gap and doesn't fit the narrative

Either way, one side is going to be super salty on Election Day.

[Salodin]

There's always salt. There should be no surprises this election though.

Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Tapatalk

[Krandor]

The sodium level is quite a bit higher this time around on both sides.

[archibaldcrane]

???


I'm confused why you use the saint leo poll, both RCP and 538 include a newer poll thats been there for a few days.

That FAU poll (Trump+2 in Florida) was just added to RCP this morning, it may have been after he posted.

[archibaldcrane]

The entire AP Clinton Foundation investigation came up with fucking zilch, and people are acting like it is a smoking gun because of a wildly misleading headline. It's so thirsty and embarrassing.

http://www.vox.com/2016/8/24/1261844...dation-meeting

[Inshiya]

Gred said he was trying to get a visa for a soccer star with a criminal record. The criminal record likely made it impossible for him to get a visa through normal means.

Right, hence why I'm asking what the other means are, and how you would even calculate that number? Did someone run the numbers to find out how much on average it takes to pay off officials to put their thumb on the scales and push it through? Just seems odd.

[archibaldcrane]

The state department could definitely pull strings to get a visa approved.

Gred's point is that even as a favor for someone who donated 10M to the foundation and paid Bill Clinton 3M himself, they wouldn't help him with this request.

His point is that if the Clintons are people whom you can peddle influence with by donating to their foundation or paying them for speeches, they must be really fucking expensive.

Or maybe they actually have pretty solid ethics after all.

[Byrthnoth]

Right, hence why I'm asking what the other means are, and how you would even calculate that number? Did someone run the numbers to find out how much on average it takes to pay off officials to put their thumb on the scales and push it through? Just seems odd.

The guy trying to get a visa for a soccer player donated/paid Billary ~10 million dollars and still didn't get a visa. The implication is that it would take >10 million dollars to get Billary to push through a visa application that otherwise wouldn't be accepted. Either that, or she's not actually "crooked Hillary."

[Quicklet]

The guy trying to get a visa for a soccer player donated/paid Billary ~10 million dollars and still didn't get a visa. The implication is that it would take >10 million dollars to get Billary to push through a visa application that otherwise wouldn't be accepted. Either that, or she's not actually "crooked Hillary."

Maybe they just have better business acumen than Trump if they can squeeze that much out of donors.

[kisada]

The state department could definitely pull strings to get a visa approved.

Gred's point is that even as a favor for someone who donated 10M to the foundation and paid Bill Clinton 3M himself, they wouldn't help him with this request.

His point is that if the Clintons are people whom you can peddle influence with by donating to their foundation or paying them for speeches, they must be really fucking expensive.

Or maybe they actually have pretty solid ethics after all.

ya thought gred's comments were kinda obvious lol.


speaking of which, anyone read washington post about this stuff today? basically saying there's no proof of any wrongdoing, but they sure didn't mind giving off the perception that there was room for quid pro quo. that in itself is kinda shady, and the optics are bad but in the end this stuff is all overblown.

[archibaldcrane]

It's pretty clear that the Clintons don't really care about optics. They realized a long time ago that no matter how mundane something is, some element of the media will attempt to crucify them for it (Whitewater, Vince Foster, Travelgate, Benghazi, email server, The Clinton Foundation) so they basically shun the media and do what they think is best. Then the perceived secrecy means that the media becomes convinced they are hiding nefarious things, the Clintons fail to keep things hidden eventually, and then the media reports on the weakest bullshit non-smoke-much-less-fire they can find.

Rinse and repeat every year or two ad infinitum.

[Krandor]

Some of you seem a little bothered by the media making vague connections and alot of assumptions that make a candidate look bad. Not that that makes you kind of a hypocrite or anything.

[chazzyphizzle]

the hottest of takes

[archibaldcrane]

To crucify Trump all you need to do is take him at his word.

[Byrthnoth]

I see a lot of this current negative press as an attempt by the media to make the presidency a closer race. If it becomes even more incredibly obvious Hillary is to be the runaway victor tomorrow, the media would lose 3 months of low hanging clickbait.

They really have their work cut out for them, though. It's going to be pretty difficult to spin hazy connections into something worse than videos of Donald Trump expressing his opinions.

[Quicklet]

As long as Trump can stay on his teleprompter speeches and Bannon doesn't put a hit out on Conway, he's going to fool enough people to keep this close at least nationally. I don't believe he's going to be able to stay on the rails though if his polling doesn't improve drastically in some of these battleground states where he's down double digits. If he's still down by 10-15 in places like VA and PA by Labor Day, I think Conway will be pushed aside.

It's interesting though. This is about as close as we're going to get to find out if campaign infrastructure and ad spending really matters in a presidential election.

[archibaldcrane]

I'm just curious if that infrastructure, especially for GOTV, manifests itself in a big Hillary beat of the polls on election day (like a 10 point win if the polls show 7).