2016 USA Presidential election thread II: And. Here. We. Go!

[Olo401]

OH FOR FUCK'S SAKE... http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewir...tion-marc-rich

There's no excuse for this shit anymore. I was willing to give Comey the benefit of the doubt over the letter to Congress, because he essentially had an obligation to report (not doing so would basically be interpreted as lying to Congress). This is completely different tho - letting an official agency media outlet start randomly spitting out ages-old docs a week before the election is just plain gross negligence at best and willingly allowing influence of the election at worst.

Either way, it's failure to perform basic leadership as the head of the FBI. Comey needs to resign now or be fired, and the same goes for whoever is accessing that Twitter account.

[Waraji]

I expect Comey to enjoy his new post in Serbia once Hillary gets elected. He's fucking with the wrong Clinton, 20 years too late.

[archibaldcrane]

Seems like the phrase would be "lack of institutional control".

[Day]

My crazy input, I think they are trying to tell you whats going on without telling you whats going on. I'll go even further and say there's probably some struggle going on right now whether to come out with everything now or post election, because of pardons.

[Minions]

No point in not pushing your agenda at this point if you already fucked up. Might as well do as much damage as possible I guess. Comey is a fool.

[Day]

Honestly it was just a FOIA request right?

edit: oh the fbi vault tweet kind of suspect I guess. I stand by previous statement for now.

[Olo401]

No point in not pushing your agenda at this point if you already fucked up. Might as well do as much damage as possible I guess. Comey is a fool.

Is he tho? If Obama fires him now before the election, it becomes a bigger mess than it already is. And Comey looks good to DT on the slim chance he wins (aka he'll get pardoned).

[Byrthnoth]

Slim? Hillary is below 70% in the Polls+ forecast: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...d=rrpromo#plus

She'd better hope that all this talk of Donald potentially winning scares Democrats into voting.

[myreality]

http://www.salon.com/2016/10/31/man-...ium=socialflow

Man arrested after dumping a pile of manure in front of Democratic Party headquarters in Ohio

Also


http://www.salon.com/2016/11/01/in-t...-donald-trump/

As Media Matters laid out on Monday, Trump is currently facing 75 different civil lawsuits for fraud, breach of contract, non-payment, sexual harassment, defamation, etc. He has three pending Trump University fraud suits and is suspected of perpetrating a “pay-for-play” scheme with Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi and possibly others to shut down a state investigation into the same fraudulent enterprise. Just last week, Trump was ordered to appear in federal court on Dec. 16 for a status conference in a civil lawsuit from a woman who accused him of raping her when she was 13. (According to the latest blockbuster investigative piece by Kurt Eichenwald in Newsweek, Trump has destroyed emails and other documents in circumvention of court orders for decades.)

[Quicklet]

But emails.

[archibaldcrane]

I think it's underappreciated how likely Hillary is to get Al Gore'd.

Trump has a 27.9% chance of winning (polls only) as I post this. He has a 10.4% chance of winning the EC when he loses the popular vote.

That means over 37% of the time when Trump wins, he loses the popular vote on the way to victory. Thirty-seven percent! That's crazy.

[Tyche]

Slim? Hillary is below 70% in the Polls+ forecast: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...d=rrpromo#plus

She'd better hope that all this talk of Donald potentially winning scares Democrats into voting.

It's still going to take a Brexit-like polling error. Clinton can lose literally Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Nevada, Iowa, Arizona, Maine 2, and still win. And she leads in three of those. She hasn't trailed in a single poll, even an outlier poll, in NH or Colorado in over a month, which is really the only two swing states that she needs. Trump HAS to flip Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin to stand a remote chance. I think Silver is a bit low on his odds.

[Quicklet]

I think it's underappreciated how likely Hillary is to get Al Gore'd.

Trump has a 27.9% chance of winning (polls only) as I post this. He has a 10.4% chance of winning the EC when he loses the popular vote.

That means over 37% of the time when Trump wins, he loses the popular vote on the way to victory. Thirty-seven percent! That's crazy.

Honestly, I feel like that's a generous % chance of Trump winning the popular vote. There would have to be a massive surge in Trump turnout or massive decrease in Clinton turnout for that to happen, and there are no signs of either of those scenarios right now.

The danger right now isn't so much the likelihood of Trump winning (although that's a possibility), but moreso the damage that he and Republicans are doing to our political norms in the course of losing. And yes, even though few people are saying it out loud (probably because the idea of Trump winning is inconceivable to most people), Trump's legitimacy as a competent president would be tenuous from day one in the same way Bush's was in the pre-9/11 months of his administration.

[Zealot]

To be honest, I think Trump will do more damage to the Republican party if he wins than if he loses.

I'll clarify. This is especially for the pro-Trump people on this board. No matter how terrible you might believe Hillary to be, if you come here and tell me that Trump is going to be a good President, I know you're lying.

It's better to be someone who supported Trump only to have him fail and then try to distance yourself from that in the future than someone bound to him as he makes a joke out of our country and its highest office. If he loses, he's gone and that's it. If he wins, all the mistakes he's going to be making from day one on are going to be on the Republican party and they'll be faced with the prospect of backing Trump's insanity or defying a sitting President of their own party, something Republicans haven't seriously done in over 40 years.

[Aerin]

After reading more about Obamacare and all the work that went into it, I honestly don't understand how Republicans expect to be able to repeal it and replace it with something else. I feel like it would end up being political suicide. Simply repealing it would bring back things like pre-existing conditions, daily maximums (insurance only pays $2k per day but your room alone would cost more than that let alone all the drugs you get and doctors you see), and yearly maximums (like your dental insurance probably has). There'd be so much outrage as people found out that their insurance doesn't actually cover much anymore.

And the talks about the very healthcare reform that became the ACA started before Obama was even the democratic nominee. While some things took effect immediately following passage, hammering out all the details and the launch of the exchanges didn't fully come to fruition until Obama's 2nd term.

[Katlan]

So before WeinerGate Hillary was a for sure win, now it still seems like she is for sure winning (a lot has to do with all those early voting and mail in ballots), but if she loses is this basically falling on Comey? He is going down in flames regardless after the election, just curious what people's thoughts are on it

[Lokus]

I feel like no matter who wins, they'll be joining Bush Sr. in the ranks of the 1-term President.

[Tyche]

Four years is a long time and by 2020, whites will be the minority. I'm hesitant on the one-term talk. Also, FBI director is a 10 year term and I don't think there's a chance in hell Clinton fires him unless there's proven partisan or ethics violations.

[archibaldcrane]

If there's a recession in the next 4 years, a one-term president is very likely.

If there isn't though...

[Byrthnoth]

IMOP this election is primarily defined by two events and a tendency for people to dislike Hillary unless they are actively discovering new ways that Trump is unfit to serve as president.



Hillary needs a third bump and I'm not sure she's going to get it.