2016 USA Presidential election thread II: And. Here. We. Go!

[Ragnus]

So before WeinerGate Hillary was a for sure win, now it still seems like she is for sure winning (a lot has to do with all those early voting and mail in ballots), but if she loses is this basically falling on Comey? He is going down in flames regardless after the election, just curious what people's thoughts are on it

We're heading towards something big no matter what. The worse case scenario would be if Trump wins the popular vote, but loses the election.

[Laugana]

As I'm not from the US, I'm going to ask some questions in which the answers may be common knowledge by native citizens: what would happen in regards to his business if/when Trump wins? Does he have to cut all ties/not get paid/etc by his company? Would his brand suffer if he makes a poor show of running the country? Anything else you think I might like to know?

[Zealot]

That's a whole thing. Historically, every President has placed their assets in a blind trust for the duration of their term in office, effectively severing all business ties so that they won't know where their money is (in theory) or have control over it. Trump has stated he has no intention of doing so, and will instead turn the day-to-day operations over to his children, pretty much ensuring he still has an active connection to all of his properties and product lines while still serving as leader of our nation.

[archibaldcrane]

He wouldn't have to cut ties legally but it would be extremely unorthodox not to. His name brand is already quite damaged by the campaign (some of his properties are rebranding as "Scion") - not sure if there's much more damage he could do but he's turned finding a new rock bottom into an artform so who knows.

[Quicklet]

IMOP this election is primarily defined by two events and a tendency for people to dislike Hillary unless they are actively discovering new ways that Trump is unfit to serve as president.



Hillary needs a third bump and I'm not sure she's going to get it.

Someone pointed out that Hillary's numbers have been best when she's been presented directly to the American people and/or contrasted next to Trump, while her numbers dip when she's presented to the public through a media filter.

Also think it's important to keep in mind that most of the volatility has been due to Republican voters wavering/returning to Trump. Access Hollywood tape was a big shock for them but apparently they've forgotten/discounted it a few weeks later. The big question is whether or not there's anything out there on Trump that would be a big enough shock to depress turnout on election day. Sure, it helps Republicans if they rally around Trump this cycle, but they're setting themselves up for long-term political damage by doing so.

[Tyrath]

He wouldn't have to cut ties legally but it would be extremely unorthodox not to.

I mean we are talking about Trump lol

[Byrthnoth]

Someone pointed out that Hillary's numbers have been best when she's been presented directly to the American people and/or contrasted next to Trump, while her numbers dip when she's presented to the public through a media filter.

Hillary's highest-ever popular vote % predicted on 538 (49.2%) was October 28th, which was already when her odds of winning were in decline. The debates bought her ~2.3% of the popular vote, where she topped out. In contrast, the whole "grab them by the pussy" fiasco cost Trump <1% of the popular vote, which he has recovered from and then some.

Hillary's current decay is partially due to Comey, but also due to people abandoning Gary Johnson. Gary Johnson voters are essentially a second "undecided group," it seems. When the Trump "grab them by the pussy" tape came out, Gary Johnson was polling 6.3% nationally. He has gone straight downhill from there (-1.6%) while Trump gained (+1%). Hillary gained a bit too, but now is at only +0.3%. Notably, this means more people are reported as undecided or voting for a fourth candidate (1.6%) now than back on the 8th of October (1.3%).


Because she isn't really that far off her popular vote ceiling, I'm not sure creating an opportunity for Hillary to get direct exposure to her constituents via national TV is necessarily going to work. Going on TV and apologizing for the e-mail ghost yet again is not going to work. If Donald Trump agreed to an impromptu fourth debate and she crushed him a fourth time, that would work but he'd be an idiot for accepting her challenge. I think their best bet at this point is to use scare/get-out-the-vote tactics to try and drive up voting rates among communities likely to vote Democrat.

[archibaldcrane]

You're talking about tactics

Trump talking bout Tictacs

Check out my new mixtape

[Athas]

That 538 prediction chart has been annoying to watch these past months. Voters got shorter memories then goldfish.

[Fiye]

Voters having a short memory shouldn't be a surprise after Republicans gained a majority after shutting down the government in 2013.

[dasva]

If Donald Trump agreed to an impromptu fourth debate and she crushed him a fourth time, that would work but he'd be an idiot for accepting her challenge.

Yeah but he is pretty good at playing the idiot so... bet if they issued some kind of challenge debate and make some remarks that make it sound like he is afraid to come he'd jump on it

[Tyche]

IMOP this election is primarily defined by two events and a tendency for people to dislike Hillary unless they are actively discovering new ways that Trump is unfit to serve as president.



Hillary needs a third bump and I'm not sure she's going to get it.

Well, even at her worst point, she led. So....

[Byrthnoth]

Well, even at her worst point, she led. So....

At her worst point she actually had a slightly less than 50% chance of getting elected. Right now Trump has a ~1/3 chance of getting elected.

Imagine that your friend shuffles three cards. One of them is for Trump and the other two are Hillary. They're face down on the table. You pick one of them and that's the president for the next 4 years. Are you okay with the 1:3 odds?

At his worst, Trump had 1:10 odds (10 cards, one is for Trump). I'm still not sure I would feel comfortable drawing a card in that game, let alone 1:3.

[Quicklet]

Hillary's current decay is partially due to Comey, but also due to people abandoning Gary Johnson. Gary Johnson voters are essentially a second "undecided group," it seems. When the Trump "grab them by the pussy" tape came out, Gary Johnson was polling 6.3% nationally. He has gone straight downhill from there (-1.6%) while Trump gained (+1%). Hillary gained a bit too, but now is at only +0.3%. Notably, this means more people are reported as undecided or voting for a fourth candidate (1.6%) now than back on the 8th of October (1.3%).

All indications so far are that Comey's stuff has had mostly no effect. It's either rallied some Dems or dissuaded unlikely Hillary supporters. I can see some of the Gary Johnson vote flowing to Trump but I'm also not convinced of how big an impact that will have, especially since Stein's decline in support should bolster Hillary a bit.

I think we have to be open to the possibility of significant polling systematics not capturing the true story (in whatever direction it goes). Likely voter screens and early vote estimates could prove inaccurate if unlikely voters are significantly more motivated to come out or if Republicans/Independents skew more to Hillary than you would expect (due to suburban women being turned off by Trump).

The best we can say right now is that public polling is somewhat volatile while internals don't suggest any reason for panic -- that said, downballot effects are going to be important here. There's also the risk of backlash from Trump and his supporters if the polls really miss the mark and he ends up losing in a landslide after all.

[Gryffes]

At her worst point she actually had a slightly less than 50% chance of getting elected. Right now Trump has a ~1/3 chance of getting elected.

Imagine that your friend shuffles three cards. One of them is for Trump and the other two are Hillary. They're face down on the table. You pick one of them and that's the president for the next 4 years. Are you okay with the 1:3 odds?

At his worst, Trump had 1:10 odds (10 cards, one is for Trump). I'm still not sure I would feel comfortable drawing a card in that game, let alone 1:3.

33% is 2-1, but it's ok I know hard facts are not a liberals strong suit.

[Zealot]

Quickly, give me one hard fact about Donald Trump's business or personal life which leads you to believe he will be a good President.

[Niiro]

He has a big brain, he said it himself.

Too big actually, it might be swollen, someone should probably look into that.

[Tyrath]

He has a big brain, he said it himself.

Too big actually, it might be swollen, someone should probably look into that.

Nah he's in perfect physical condition.

Spoiler: show

[Byrthnoth]

All indications so far are that Comey's stuff has had mostly no effect.

She has lost almost 1% of the popular vote in the last 3 days and was (+/- 2%) stable before that. Going to have to call bullshit on this or it's being caused by something that happened at almost exactly the same time.

[kisada]

polls were already on their way to tightening barring any news anyway. basically the effect of republicans returning home and old bad news for trump passing its time.