2016 USA Presidential election thread II: And. Here. We. Go!

[Day]

It's almost like people are little iffy about voting for someone under FBI investigation(s)

[Andalusian girls]

we're entering classic correlation causation territory but Hillary's popular vote totals dropping off and her unfavorability rating rising following the Comey release hardly seems accidental.

really both candidates are in an electoral limbo where the more attention paid to them the worse it is for them. they are both deeply, horrifically unpopular with the electorate and Comey's press release may be most influential simply for the fact it focused the spotlight back upon Clinton when she has only ever gained traction either directly juxtaposed with Trump or when his gaffes have been the lotus of attention. she has only ever lost ground in isolation.

and as Beernorth points out much of the poll tightening was/is skittish libertarian-leaning conservatives coming home to the party that loves to ignore them. a strong Johnson showing would have been of great benefit to Hillary, his flaring incompetence will only boost national Republican prospects and it is liberal delusion to expect the same magnitude of voter shift with Jill Stein's declining numbers simply because her evidenced support never exceeded 50% of Johnson's and was more generally like 20-30%.

[Tyrath]

It's almost like the FBI doesn't actually have anything and the director with an agenda announced something very vaguely right before election time.

[Byrthnoth]

It's almost like people are little iffy about voting for someone under FBI investigation(s)

Doesn't seem to hurt Trump

Also, today I realized that even if Hillary was replaced with reanimated Richard Nixon I'd happily vote for him over Trump. I don't think there's a single major party candidate from the last hundred years that I don't find preferable to Trump.

[Tyrath]

Doesn't seem to hurt Trump

Can you imagine what Hillary's numbers would be if she had said or done even 10% of the shit he does?

[archibaldcrane]

Let's not be too "both sides" about favorability.

Clinton's favorables split by RCP is -9. That is bad.

But Trump is -21.

Every candidate for president ever would kill to have a +12 in comparable favorability to their opponent.

[Day]

It's almost like the FBI doesn't actually have anything and the director with an agenda announced something very vaguely right before election time.

I just can't follow the logic on this, perhaps someone can work out the world for me where the director of the FBI makes an action this incredibly impactful with absolutely zero evidence, knowing what the impact would be. Surely he knew the results of the letter before sending, I just don't buy that he would do this because someone said the word "email".

[archibaldcrane]

What do you mean zero evidence? He clearly had in his possession a cache of thousands of emails to and from Huma Abedin from a device that hadn't been previously examined.

Which is essentially what he said.

Are you saying that he must have found something pertinent and damaging in those emails or he wouldn't have written the letter? If that's what you are saying it's a huge stretch beyond the evidence at hand.

[Day]

Yes that's what I'm saying and is it that big of a stretch? The bigger stretch to me would be that they amount to nothing and he raised this shitstorm for purely partisan reasons.

[kisada]

i think you are completely misunderstanding both politics and the stakes of this election if you truly believe that a republican wouldn't do something like this for political reasons.

[archibaldcrane]

From all indications they hadn't even begun to examine the emails when the letter was written because they didn't get a search warrant until the next day. I suppose it's possible they went rogue, dug in, found something incriminating, and then issued the letter explicitly lying about not knowing whether they are pertinent, but that seems like a huge stretch.

[Day]

Well I know we obviously aren't going to agree, but I think it's important to note the investigators had the device for quite a while before notifying Comey of what they found. I guess I just lean more towards what they told him was actually severe vs not a big deal.

[archibaldcrane]

He raised this shitstorm for CYA reasons.

1) He knew that if he kept quiet, and then after the election they found something damning, he'd get raked over the coals for not keeping Congress abreast of the new developments.

2) He didn't trust the people in the know about the new email device to not leak the info, because again even if it's nothing he would look bad for not saying "we have something but it's maybe nothing".

[archibaldcrane]

I understand your perspective of "why would he do this unless there was something bad?" but I have to reply "why would he say he didn't know if the emails were pertinent if he did in fact know that they were?"

Comey knowingly lying to Congress, which is what you are suggesting, is way worse than keeping his mouth shut.

[arus2001]

I'm just sitting on the theory he's trying to mask a grudge with good intentions. Hasn't been a secret he dislikes the Clintons and the initial investigation wrapping up without fruit no doubt left a bitter taste. Having the power to revisit it all at arguably the most tactical point one could hope for was likely too sweet to pass up.

As noted earlier, firing him now would be a disaster for the Dems even if true. After the election, though? Well, he hasn't done himself any favors. Especially if nothing comes of it all. Again.

[Andalusian girls]

Let's not be too "both sides" about favorability.

Clinton's favorables split by RCP is -9. That is bad.

But Trump is -21.

Every candidate for president ever would kill to have a +12 in comparable favorability to their opponent.

your logic is bad and you should feel bad. i claimed no equivalency, and specifically mentioned that Hillary gained the advantage whenever directly juxtaposed with Trump.

however, -9 favorability (the less selective Huffpost tracker has her -12) is the worst for any presidential candidate in modernity (barring one orange man) and when the discussion becomes about Hillary and Hillary alone, as it does whenever her emails are mentioned, her polls numbers consistently contract as the majority of the American people dislike her and they are reminded of that fact when presented with her sans the greater evil.

[Minions]

From the look of things, its a free for all at the FBI currently. It is making the organization look like a shit show. At this point they are going to need an overhaul and a lot of time to restore faith. The Justice department has been entirely silent, and completely absent. Comey reports to them, and at this point everyone is acting like Comey is in charge of everything going on. All the FBI is entitled to do is investigate and give their opinion on whether someone should be charged. Comey not once, but twice did something that was against protocol. The first was announcing no charges in a public speech. All normal cases are closed and not disclosed a investigation was even ongoing. The second is coming out and saying they were investigating emails regarding Clinton before they even started to look at the emails and who/where they were from. Saying this was not partisan politics is a joke at this point. Comey hate hate HATES Clinton. Hes been trying to nail her for years. So he decided to say FU in the biggest way he could.

[Krandor]

Technically speaking wasn't Comey just doing his job? They found new evidence and he let the appropriate government personnel know about it.

The fact that Gowdy immediately tweeted out to the world that the investigation was back on isn't his fault

[Day]

He raised this shitstorm for CYA reasons.

1) He knew that if he kept quiet, and then after the election they found something damning, he'd get raked over the coals for not keeping Congress abreast of the new developments.

2) He didn't trust the people in the know about the new email device to not leak the info, because again even if it's nothing he would look bad for not saying "we have something but it's maybe nothing".

I agree there, I think where we differ is on how much "pre-investigation" got done by the sexting investigators and what was relayed. He clearly had a tough choice to make, to your point 1. So I would like to think he weighed the options vs the evidence. He could have waited until after the election right, that is what most of you were wanting him to do? So he had that option. I'm pretty cynical about government and am definitely worried about corruption but this is Obama appointed director who was (for the most part) beloved by Democrats until last week, so I'm struggling accepting it being purely partisan and even just CYA for that matter. Also 650,000 is a very large number of emails, like a lot of emails. I also find it a bit hard to believe that this would be the best way for him to impact the election if he really wanted to. I wont keep ranting about it, those are just my thoughts.

[Minions]

Technically speaking wasn't Comey just doing his job? They found new evidence and he let the appropriate government personnel know about it.

The fact that Gowdy immediately tweeted out to the world that the investigation was back on isn't his fault

This is basically the first time the Public has been notified that an investigation started, stopped, continued etc.

These investigations are not a public manner and are always ongoing. There is no reason to notify the public when you find out someone didn't do something. Otherwise we would be hearing constantly about people being investigated for stuff that pans out nowhere.

Go check out the previous heads of the FBI/Justice Department that have come out and said Comey has made a huge mistake, and/or intentionally did something against policy/protocol. He may well be charged for it as some people are calling for his head currently under the Hatch act.


http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/01/politi...linton-emails/

http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/31/politi...-comey-letter/