2016 USA Presidential election thread II: And. Here. We. Go!

[myreality]

http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slate...ter_purge.html

THE SLATEST
YOUR NEWS COMPANION
NOV. 3 2016 10:21 AM
North Carolina Is Engaging in “Insane” Jim Crow–Style Voter Suppression, Says Federal Judge
By Mark Joseph Stern
618810616-voters-cast-their-ballots-during-early-voting-for-the
Voters cast their ballots in North Carolina.
Alex Wong/Getty Images

U.S. District Judge Loretta Biggs slammed an ongoing North Carolinian voter purge during a dramatic Wednesday hearing, telling county attorneys that she was “horrified” by the “insane” process by which voters could be removed from the rolls without their knowledge. “It almost looks like a cattle call, the way people are being purged,” Biggs said. “This sounds like something that was put together in 1901,” when the state used Jim Crow laws to prevent black citizens from casting a ballot.

Biggs called a hearing after the NAACP sued several North Carolina counties for purging nearly 6,700 voters—most of them black Democrats—from the rolls. These purges were legal under a state law that permits any person to revoke any other person’s voting rights. The process is simple: An individual gathers mail that was returned as undeliverable, then challenges the voter registration of residents at those addresses. If those voters do not appear at a county board of elections or return a notarized form, their voting rights are nullified.

[thetruepandagod]

So how many of ya'll is leaving if Trump takes it? I for one look forward to the possibility that Hollywood self exiles.

[AidenCarby]

I'll give it a year, tops.

[Tyche]

According to Jon Ralston, respected Nevada political reporter that analyzed early voting trends in election cycles, even if Trump were to win 90% of Republicans (not going to happen) and win Independents by 20 points (also not going to happen), Trump would still lose by 2 points. So, unless Hillary hemorrhages votes of the democratic base, Trump probably isn't taking Nevada.

[Quicklet]

https://twitter.com/kurteichenwald/s...73421580500998

Coming up tomorrow in @Newsweek: One of my most important stories so far pertaining to the election.

The wait is killing me.

[Tyrath]

Just in time for friday

[archibaldcrane]

The idea that Huffpo and Princeton Election Consortium have Hillary at 99% to win is ridiculous and dumb.

[Xantavia]

Comic is four years old, but I think Rat's line in the 3rd panel is especially fitting this year.

[Tyche]

See, I think 35% is really damn optimistic for Trump. I ain't saying it's 99%, but still. Undecideds and third parties have moved to the major nominees. There's a lot of baked in votes and all indications suggest dems are hammering the early voting totals (which Nate says the model does not factor in unless polls factor them in...which they don't). I think Nate's model is a bit too cautious that there's a polling miss. I get that many states move together, but the fact that Trump has to win practically every swing state, some of which he isn't leading in, and still steal a blue state suggests to me that a 35% chance is grossly optimistic.

[Tyche]

Another thing I don't get about Nate is that he acknowledges that the uncertainty that the polls may be off is the reason that Trump's chances are so high. And at the same time he acknowledges that there's just as good a chance of a miss in the other direction, and Hillary wins in a landslide. However, that doesn't seem baked into the model.

[Gryffes]

See, I think 35% is really damn optimistic for Trump. I ain't saying it's 99%, but still. Undecideds and third parties have moved to the major nominees. There's a lot of baked in votes and all indications suggest dems are hammering the early voting totals (which Nate says the model does not factor in unless polls factor them in...which they don't). I think Nate's model is a bit too cautious that there's a polling miss. I get that many states move together, but the fact that Trump has to win practically every swing state, some of which he isn't leading in, and still steal a blue state suggests to me that a 35% chance is grossly optimistic.

Agree, plus Trump doesn't have an established ground game.
He's 50/50 in Nevada/Florida, and behind in every dem leaning state he needs to flip.
I think he's probably around 5-10% right now.

Repubs are doing the whole "polls aint right!" we saw last time with the whole "the polls are skewed!" that even a lot of establishment repubs were spouting and ended up being nonsense.
Trumps main hope is that black turnout is way way lower than 2008/2012 ( more than predicted ), and young voters don't turnout, and elder voters turnout in higher numbers.

It's somewhat possible but an outside shot.

[Aerin]

Khizr Khan getting out the vote.

[6souls]

Regarding voter turnout numbers, 413 thousand Minnesotan's have voted early.

[Andalusian girls]

Khizr Khan getting out the vote.

They (American Muslims) leaned Republican before the election of George W. Bush to the White House, in part due to conservative social values; 72% voted for Bush in 2000.

A CAIR survey found that 86% of Muslims intend to vote for Clinton.

it's pretty wild how effectively the Republican party has alienated every minority in the country over the past 16 years. whatever happened to the good old days when it was just black people that hated and distrusted them

[Niiro]

Another thing I don't get about Nate is that he acknowledges that the uncertainty that the polls may be off is the reason that Trump's chances are so high. And at the same time he acknowledges that there's just as good a chance of a miss in the other direction, and Hillary wins in a landslide. However, that doesn't seem baked into the model.

There's certainly the feeling in no small number of people that the mere fact that Trump has the chances he does means that any faith we may have had in voters acting as reasonable actors was greatly misplaced.

The uneasy feeling that maybe we've been wrong all this time, seeing what kind of person people are actually willing to support as a major party candidate. There's never been a candidate like Trump before and there's this wildcard element surrounding his candidacy that seems capable of defying any traditional prediction methods, which is why one might put more weight on a Trump surprise win than a Hillary surprise landslide.

Also I think no small part of him thinks we deserve a Trump presidency, a lot of people do and I'm not one to disagree. Personally I don't think he's going to win, but the fact that he got as far as he did is, I guess, disheartening?

It's easy to say "well as long as he doesn't win then everything's ok" but is it really? Should defeating Donald Trump in a presidential election feel like victory?

[Andalusian girls]

yes yes it should.

a disingenuous strawposition as i don't know anyone of any affiliation who thinks the country is fine as is, but a dangerous demagogue being repudiated by the masses is and will always be a victory.

[Headspace]

sad stuff tbh. You should not be cool with it. we can do better. Im done w this party and the DNC. You guys hate Trump so much then be mad at Hillary and the DNC for making this even remotely close. Donald fucking Trump.. and shes struggling, what an embarrassment. I don't expect politicians to be perfect but this is supposed to be a govt for the people.

Under 2 different FBI investigations and anyone who has a problem with it is just a stupid Trump supporter or conspiracy theorist because the news didn't come from Vox or CNN. Solid proof of feeding debate questions to her campaign. Solid proof of moving primary voting days around to their advantage and its all OK just so some shitty politician gets in office that literally gives zero fucks about you. She wins, DNC (and RNC) learns nothing and next time they just get better at not getting caught, and next time it might not be in your favor.

18 months of each side trying to tell me which shit sandwich tastes better and I never fucking thought Trump would be more appealing.

Im likely done w this thread until Wed prob best for all of us.

Trump is the lesser of two evils.

Don't @ me


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[Fiye]

http://www.cc.com/video-clips/chosjm...the-trumpettes

This was pretty disgusting to watch.

[Tymon]

https://twitter.com/kurteichenwald/s...73421580500998



The wait is killing me.

Does this guy regularly break big stories? Sounds to me based on his previous articles it'll jus be a hot take. Probably a good one though; enjoyed his other articles.

[Tyche]

http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/...izer-breitbart

Apparently the FBI used a fucking Breitbart source as a basis for opening the investigation into the Clinton Foundation. Holy shit lol. The FBI is gon' b gon' after January.