2016 USA Presidential election thread II: And. Here. We. Go!

[ringthree]

Because Nate has the race entirely too close. And he's pretty butt hurt about it. His twitter tantrum last night was remarkable. But if Clinton goes on to win Florida by 4 points, NC by 5-6, and Nevada by 5+, Nate is going to justifiably have a lot of egg on his face.

I'm not sure about that. Not that he would wrong but the fundamentals are still true. Like the number of undecideds being higher that normal and other stuff like that.

[ringthree]

i think anyone that thinks Nate would have egg on his face has a fundamental misunderstanding of the Bayesian probability upon which his models are based. it's kind of amazing he's giving Hillary a 2:1 probability of winning and showing her winning 350 EC votes is as likely as Trump winning a bare majority, and yet he's going to be regarded as a failure if she wins by too much.

the twitter rampage came from a journalist fundamentally misunderstanding the simplest of statistical techniques in a regression analysis and claiming it constituted Nate putting his finger on the scales in an act of ascientifc punditry. in a related aside the lead article at the Atlantic is running a piece where the author claims quantum mechanics demonstrates observer-independent particles are an illusion. journalism would be great except for all the journalists.

This.

[Aerin]

WikiLeaks apparently released more emails, but I don't see anything on the major news sites about it.

[myreality]

WikiLeaks apparently released more emails, but I don't see anything on the major news sites about it.

Probably not vague enough.

[Gredival]

Only 8 more years and I can do a kickstarter for my presidency.

Sorry but there won't be any more elections after our mass spirit cooking session on the night of the inauguration. The souls of the nation's first born will give Demon Queen Hillary the eternal life she needs to rule the soon-to-be-established United Serfdoms of Goldman Sachs forevermore.

[Aerin]

Sorry but there won't be any more elections after our mass spirit cooking session on the night of the inauguration. The souls of the nation's first born will give Demon Queen Hillary the eternal life she needs to rule the soon-to-be-established United Serfdoms of Goldman Sachs forevermore.

If any of that is not to your liking, don't worry, there'll still be risotto.

Went over to the_donald (ugh I feel dirty now) to see what they're saying about the emails. Seems to be mostly stuff about the DNC and CNN talking to each other. All the links to WikiLeaks though gives me a 502 gateway error atm though so I can't look at what the emails supposedly say.

[thetruepandagod]

Sorry but there won't be any more elections after our mass spirit cooking session on the night of the inauguration. The souls of the nation's first born will give Demon Queen Hillary the eternal life she needs to rule the soon-to-be-established United Serfdoms of Goldman Sachs forevermore.

I do best against competition, success feeds the worst in me as you well know. I will lead us in the 2024 rebellion and pierce her hellish heart with my last breath.

[Andalusian girls]

don't you bastardize the wrath of khan

don't you dare

[Tyche]

This.

I used poor wording. It's not that Nate has the race too close. It's that he'd waaaaaaaaaay too uncertain. Even with the undecideds. Third parties are a wash, most of them are coming home.

[Andalusian girls]

i mean, the combined national poll average has Hilump at 87.6% whereas in 2012 Marack combined for 96.9% in the final batch of polling. i don't know how you can look at those numbers and come to the conclusion that there isn't more uncertainty in this polling data than in the previous cycle's. we can guess what the additional non-aligned 9.3% of the electorate is going to do, come home, stay home, write in, go third party, split equally between both candidates, or shift disproportionately to one side, but it is an unprecedented number of non-aligned voters to attempt to model (or at least since the Perot insurgency which predated any sophisticated prediction models grounded in statistics)

and for what it's worth somehow Johnson's numbers are holding steady in the mid-high 4.somethings. despite his Garyness he may just hit the 5% necessary for public federal funds to trigger for the libertarian party in 2020.

[Deftscythe]

don't you bastardize the wrath of khan

don't you dare

But... Khan was quoting Melville.

[Andalusian girls]

no dude he was quoting Ahab

[Aerin]

^

[Deftscythe]

Who was written by Melville...

[Aerin]

Fox News is starting to post some articles about the latest WikiLeaks dump. Some of their reporting seems like a stretch.

For instance, the headline Clinton aide says Foundation paid for Chelsea’s wedding, WikiLeaks emails show is misleading because the email simply says there's an investigation. So unless I'm reading it wrong, that's a case of guilty until proven innocent.

Then there's the headline 'Disregarded ethics guidelines': Clinton document raised issues with 2010 Shanghai Expo. The email about this seems odd to me. At the beginning there's comments about "self researched documents" and someone they're vetting being caught up in the conflict of interest stuff at the state department, and it not being the worst thing. But, then it goes into like, the exact language you'd dream up to make these things seem as bad as possible.

As Secretary, Clinton took advantage of her financial networks and corporate connections ... Clinton had little consideration for ethics ... Clinton allowed the corporations to become the centerpiece of an exhibit that is supposed to emphasize American values ... In her haste to help herself and her corporate allies, Clinton forgot the purpose of American participation in events like the expo.

Now, as much as I hate to bring up the credibility of WikiLeaks again, am I the only one that finds language like that from within the Clinton campaign (even if it was meant to be just shared with one other person) odd?

[Twilight Sky]

I think we can all agree that both candidates are dirty as fuck, but unfortunately people have to vote for either of them, and one them is going to be president. And their administrations wont do any good for the US or abroad.

[arus2001]

Well, it's certain nothing will get done if the obstructionism continues. However, Trump has a way lower ceiling of potential "good" than Hillary would, particularly involving understanding of the system she's getting into no matter how corrupt/rigged/whatever we think it is.

Either way, of the republicans I know, too often it seems like they're keen on voting against they're own self-interest. Stuff like that has come to be reflected in Obamacare, as brought up earlier, with it getting neutered and some lacking safeguards to prevent shit like premium hikes or epipen drama. Unfortunately, if one isn't among the deplorables, it would seem more that the spin machine is doing its job with Obama/Hillary being the root of all evil. That certainly puts more pressure on the dems to do things to prove all that wrong, but again, obstruction. You just can't compromise with people who don't even want to sit at the same table.

[Fhloston]

Voted early. Less than 10 mins and no Trump poll watchers, surprisingly. I'll be at work election night, so if shit hits the fan if Trump loses, it'll be an interesting drive home in the morning. Texas, btw.

Sent from my Nexus 5X using Tapatalk

[Gryffes]

If anyones following team autism, it's getting a bit crazy.

They're linking the podestas to an evil pedo ring that obama and hrc are involved with to a local pizza place, and linking them to the Madeline McCann abduction.
I mean, 4 years of this levels of crazy might actually be more entertaining than 4 years of trump.

[Olo401]

So Janet Reno died. I wonder if TPGOPFBIWL will trot out her greatest hits for the final day of madness..