2016 USA Presidential election thread II: And. Here. We. Go!

[Andalusian girls]

that graphic's projection appears to have underestimated Clinton's convention bounce. which isn't to say Hillary isn't still the heavy favorite and the polls surging in her favor largely functioned to reset the race to a more plausible place after the RNC made it a coin toss. but i think it more likely that in the coming weeks the polls will revert to a +5 aggregate advantage for her than push into the +10 range that would make states like Texas competitive and cause Georgia to flip. even 538's modest -1.5 regression would place her around that.

[Quicklet]

If Texas went blue I'd be so excited.

Maybe that means Cruz would be at risk of losing his senate seat.

Trump could be 20 points behind nationally and Texas would still go red. Maybe in another decade though -- the demographics definitely suggest it could go purple/blue if Republicans don't fix their problem with minorities.

[archibaldcrane]

Sure

But you have to acknowledge that the complete Trump meltdown / landslide trigger possibility is very much in play.

[Quicklet]

Oh I think a landslide is absolutely possible. IMO the range is somewhere between Trump narrow victory and Clinton landslide (330-340 electoral votes). I don't think Texas is in play no matter how badly Trump loses though. Democrats just aren't going to commit the kind of resources to trying to flip it this year. A lot of other states like Georgia and Utah are definitely within the realm of possibility though.

[archibaldcrane]

Trump could be 20 points behind nationally and Texas would still go red.

That's simply not true. Nowcast has Hilldog up 7.4% nationally, with a median Texas result of a loss by 4.2%. Non-hispanic whites are only 45% of the Texas population, it's fertile ground in a Hillary landslide scenario.

[Quicklet]

The demographics are there to make Texas go blue right now, you are right, but my understanding is that turnout is just not anywhere close to the level it would need to be to make that a realization, and it will probably take a few cycles of "purpling" to get to the critical mass you need to get the infrastructure and turnout required.

[kuronosan]

The demographics are there to make Texas go blue right now, you are right, but my understanding is that turnout is just not anywhere close to the level it would need to be to make that a realization, and it will probably take a few cycles of "purpling" to get to the critical mass you need to get the infrastructure and turnout required.

This election cycle will be unprecedented; both in that Hillary is likely to win and that Trump has successfully made a joke out of the GOP.

The fact that BoBs even think they have a gigantic impact on the election anymore after like 90% of supporters surveyed said they'd vote for Hillary on policy alone is just fucking embarrassing. It's gymnastics at its worst. "YEA SHE SAYS SHE'LL PASS HIS AGENDA BUT WAIT UNTIL SHE PIVOTS ON THE TPP".

Look, if you don't like the fucking TPP, hold your politicians accountable from somewhere other than your computer chair. To me, if we even get anything close to better health care reform, a living wage, and education reform, that's a fucking win whether she stupidly attacks another country or gets a snuke in her snizz.

It's a chance you take when you vote for people you don't actually know. Looking at Hillary's record, I have no reason to doubt her word. I'm scared she won't keep it, sure, but I'm infinitely more concerned about what a disaster/train wreck a reality show dipshit being elected would be for us globally and socially.

[Krandor]

As some of you have been keen to point out in regards to Trump supporters, there's a decent chunk of Bernie folks who weren't really supporting him based on any actual policy. Cult of personality, fighting back against establishment politics, etc etc

You can call that stupid (or in the words of Sarah Silverman, ridiculous), but it is what it is.

[Melena]

What is the point of Asagne/WikiLeaks holding these emails and releasing them later? If they really had something on Hilary and that would torpedo her run for presidency, wouldn't it have been better to do it on the primary run where Bernie could have then been the nominee, or are they just hoping to flip the white house to the republicans? It makes absolutely no sense.

[kuronosan]

They're hoping to get people talking.

[Byrthnoth]

Yeah, I think I've been posting for the last few months that Bernie is the Trump of the left.

[Krandor]

What is the point of Asagne/WikiLeaks holding these emails and releasing them later? If they really had something on Hilary and that would torpedo her run for presidency, wouldn't it have been better to do it on the primary run where Bernie could have then been the nominee, or are they just hoping to flip the white house to the republicans? It makes absolutely no sense.

Popular opinions are either

A) He honestly doesn't have shit and is talking out his ass, which could be likely given Assange's history of honeydicking.

B) The leaks are going to be spread out to give people time to properly absorb them instead of just letting stuff get buried from information overload. There's still things being pulled together from the DNC leak weeks ago.

[kisada]

i'd definitely lean on it being A rather than B. also, any legit bombshells would have come out already. i think it's all really just an egomaniac trying to find ways to stay relevant in the news.

[Salodin]

Assange and egomaniac are not two words I'd use in the same sentence, unless the sentence is "there's no way a man who had a cushy government job and threw it away for the good of the nation is an egomaniac."

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk

[Tyche]

Assange and egomaniac are not two words I'd use in the same sentence, unless the sentence is "there's no way a man who had a cushy government job and threw it away for the good of the nation is an egomaniac."

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk

Have you read wiki leaks lately?

[Krandor]

I have no idea how anyone could come to the conclusion that Assange isn't an egomaniac.

[kisada]

maybe thinking i meant snowden? lol

[ringthree]

maybe thinking i meant snowden? lol

Yep

[Salodin]

Have you read wiki leaks lately?

No I havent.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk

[Dotsudoku]

even then, in what way does being a nameless, if cushy government employee lend more to egomania than international notoriety