NCAA Football 2016: Mr. Saban's Wild Ride

[archibaldcrane]

538 playoffs scenario generator.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...l-predictions/

If Louisville wins out in a vacuum, they have a 39% chance of making the playoffs.

If Wisconsin wins out, they have a 74% chance. If they both do, Lou 36%, UW 72%.

Biggest threat to Wisconsin looks like if A&M or LSU wins out as well, and they have to pick Wisconsin vs. a second SEC team.

[Tyche]

So....this is stupid. I forgot we rank first by conference, then by actual wins, losses, and opponents. Fucking A&M lol? I'm not sure they'd be favored in 2 of the games against the top 10.

• 1
  Alabama
  
  8-0

• 2
  Clemson
  
  8-0

• 3
  Michigan
  
  8-0

• 4
  Texas A&M
  
  7-1

• 5
  Washington
  
  8-0

• 6
  Ohio State
  
  7-1

• 7
  Louisville
  
  7-1

• 8
  Wisconsin
  
  6-2

• 9
  Auburn
  
  6-2

• 10
  Nebraska
  
  7-1

• 11
  Florida
  
  6-1

• 12
  Penn State
  
  6-2

• 13
  Louisiana State
  
  5-2

• 14
  Oklahoma
  
  6-2

• 15
  Colorado
  
  6-2

• 16
  Utah
  
  7-2

• 17
  Baylor
  
  6-1

• 18
  Oklahoma State
  
  6-2

• 19
  Virginia Tech
  
  6-2

• 20
  West Virginia
  
  6-1

• 21
  North Carolina
  
  6-2

• 22
  Florida State
  
  5-3

• 23
  Western Michigan
  
  8-0

• 24
  Boise State
  
  7-1

25
Washington State

[Krandor]

3% chance for WSU to make it

[Anoat]

Texas A&M at #4 is a big fat LOL, especially over unbeaten Washington. It'll probably work itself out, though.

[Tyche]

I recall back in January that Louisville fucking crushed A&M in a bowl game. And this Louisville team is significantly better. But hey, I'm sure this A&M team is fine. Just fine. Reasonably, that doesn't get factored in. Still though, it makes me extra salty.

[FNH]

I don't think a&am should be up there, but bringing up last seasons bowl games is dumb.

[Zetanio]

I don't think a&am should be up there, but bringing up last seasons bowl games is dumb.

Dis.

[Tyche]

I don't think a&am should be up there, but bringing up last seasons bowl games is dumb.

That's why I said "reasonably...it doesn't get factored in". Reading comprehension. It's difficult. Regardless, if A&M were within 5 points of a vegas line against UL, I'd be shocked.

[Tyche]

You shouldn't be top 4 with a 20 point loss and being taken to OT against 2 teams not currently ranked. I'm sorry. A&M at 4 is fucking dumb. But it'll rectify itself.

[Zetanio]

We agree.

[Akiyama]

You shouldn't be top 4 with a 20 point loss and being taken to OT against 2 teams not currently ranked. I'm sorry. A&M at 4 is fucking dumb. But it'll rectify itself.

Should you really be talking about something A&M has or hasn't done when UL's not in any better shape, though? I don't think either team belongs #4 as is, Washington deserves to be there even if their OOC is three teams from High School. They're still unbeaten.

It'll work itself out though.

[Tyche]

Well, Louisville doesn't have a 20 point loss to a top 5 team. I know that. Regardless, I never said UL should be four. Just A&M shouldn't. I think 5-6 is reasonable for UL. OSU and UL are both worthy of those two spots. A&M though...nope. No fucking clue what the committee was thinking. Something funny they did say, however, is that they didn't take margin of victory into account. Which is bullshit, because UL wouldn't be top 10 if they didn't take that offense into account.

[6souls]

The Gopha players who had been banned from the home games can play again.

https://www.mprnews.org/story/2016/1...orders-dropped

[Anoat]

I think UL still has a legit chance as long as they win out and FSU and Houston don't shit the bed down the stretch. 'Bama tends to drop at least one silly game each year. Clemson has a possible stumbling block in the ACC Championship game against probably UNC or Va Tech. Michigan or Ohio State is gonna drop out of contention after their game. The only scenario I can see where UL gets left out is if 'Bama, Clemson, Michigan, and Washington all finish undefeated.

[Akiyama]

I think UL still has a legit chance as long as they win out and FSU and Houston don't shit the bed down the stretch. 'Bama tends to drop at least one silly game each year. Clemson has a possible stumbling block in the ACC Championship game against probably UNC or Va Tech. Michigan or Ohio State is gonna drop out of contention after their game. The only scenario I can see where UL gets left out is if 'Bama, Clemson, Michigan, and Washington all finish undefeated.

Ohio State and Michigan could both very easily make it. Ohio State beats Michigan, wins the Big 10, Michigan's only loss is to tOSU.. so why keep Michigan out vs the other one loss teams when they'd have one of the 'better' losses?

That's the semantics in all of this. I don't think when you lose should play a big role on how you finish, so we'll see. UL's OOC was also kinda bad, though not nearly as awful as Washington's.

As for why A&M is there, I dunno. I'm guessing' it's because of the UCLA win? That carried more weight than anything Washington did or something, I dunno. I think them being like.. 7 or 8 would be more reasonable, but who knows.

For my own sake, having Auburn at 9 is nice I guess, but I dunno. Vandy is this weekend. If they drop that Imma be mad salty. I am really glad with their progress on offense, though. The defense has held up (save for the Ole Miss game) too so that I'm also pleased with.

[Tyche]

Here's what's going to have to happen for UL to make it.

A&M lose, which is a given.
Michigan to beat OSU
Washington to drop a game

I think that's the path, which I don't think is too unreasonable. I'm in the really weird position of fucking rooting for Kentucky to win the SEC East lol.

Also, to be fair to the committee, I think whether Louisville was 5th or 7th, the path would remain the same for UL. UL and Clemson are the only two teams that 538 predicts to have a better than even chance of finishing the rest of the season unbeaten.

[Akiyama]

Yeah, I agree Tyche.

As for Kentucky, dude, you have no idea how badly I want them to win the SEC East. Kentucky basketball can eat a fat one, but Kentucky football.. that'd be amazing.

That and Bama would beat em by like 40 in the championship game.

[Serra]

All this talk of Les Miles looking at OCs makes me think he's already got a job lined up for next year. And part of me thinks it'd be Texas >.>

[Moss]

All this talk of Les Miles looking at OCs makes me think he's already got a job lined up for next year. And part of me thinks it'd be Texas >.>

no way UT is that dumb. they're going to get Herman

[Coren]

Whether they want Herman may depend on whether Houston decides to start winning again.