NCAA Football 2016: Mr. Saban's Wild Ride

[archibaldcrane]

I think Colorado could make it if they win the Pac 12

Over PSU/UW winner or over Ohio State?

It's just hard to see them jumping either, given where they are currently ranked.

[FNH]

Over PSU/UW winner or over Ohio State?

It's just hard to see them jumping either, given where they are currently ranked.

in the place of Washington in his scenario. "Where they are currently ranked" doesn't really matter tbh. The committee can arrange it however they want.

[Byrd]

Had a very, very wet afternoon in Corvallis yesterday, but it ended with a Civil War win for the first time in 9 years.

3-6 in conference, 4-8 overall is not that great, but a fair step up from 0-9 and 2-10, which was last year.

Plus, the Ducks finished dead last in the Pac-12 North, only two years after playing in the national title game. That's an impressively rapid fall from grace. Will be very curious to see if they fire Helfrich and, if so, who they replace him with.

[ThreeOneLead]

Had a very, very wet afternoon in Corvallis yesterday, but it ended with a Civil War win for the first time in 9 years.

3-6 in conference, 4-8 overall is not that great, but a fair step up from 0-9 and 2-10, which was last year.

Plus, the Ducks finished dead last in the Pac-12 North, only two years after playing in the national title game. That's an impressively rapid fall from grace. Will be very curious to see if they fire Helfrich and, if so, who they replace him with.

Brian Kelly


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[6souls]

http://www.sbnation.com/college-foot...baugh-referees

NCAA fines Mich $10k for Harbaugh's ref rant.

[FNH]

Welp archi prepare to get snubbed if Washington and Clemson win their conference.

[archibaldcrane]

Getting snubbed for Ohio State is going to feel bad man. Can't even win their half of the conference pieces of shit

[Anoat]

Oregon has fired Mark Helfrich.

Da List--
1. Alabama
2. Ohio State
3. Clemson
4. Washington

5. Michigan
6. Wisconsin

7. Penn State
8. Colorado
9. Oklahoma
10. Oklahoma State

[Kirin]

I really hope the playoff committee stops this OSU hard-on and rewards Badga or Penn State for, you know, actually being the best team in their conference.

[Zetanio]

Fuck Penn State.

[Roranora]

I really hope the playoff committee stops this OSU hard-on and rewards Badga or Penn State for, you know, actually being the best team in their conference.

The best team in the conference isn't always the conference champion. Now if you want to reward a team for being the latter, fine, but don't confuse it with meaning the former.

[Kirin]

The best team in the conference isn't always the conference champion. Now if you want to reward a team for the latter, fine, but don't confuse it with meaning the former.

Then why did OSU lose to inferior Penn State?

I understand your point, and I've been on the receiving end of it as a UGA fan a few times, but if they are the best team then why didn't they win their conference?

9 games out of 10 OSU probably would have won. But they didn't. Shoulda, woulda, coulda.

[Zetanio]

Fuck Penn State.

[Roranora]

Then why did OSU lose to inferior Penn State?

I don't know why this is the question; it's not. It's who are the best teams (after Alabama)?

What am I supposed to say? They lost cause they didn't make plays. And it's one fewer game than Penn State has lost, perhaps even two fewer after this weekend. The head-to-head isn't a factor in breaking some tie because it's not even close. OSU is better, it's clear, the committee is right for the week, and you'd be a dishonest college football observer to think otherwise.

The committee didn't even ponder OSU-PSU. Shit, they are #2 and #7. The committee thought a whole lot more about putting Michigan at 4 instead of 5.

The way it's unfolding this year, there will be some bitter pills for certain fanbases to swallow on Sunday.

[archibaldcrane]

The question is how much do they really prefer conference champions. It's an explicit stated criteria they use, but it hasn't been put to the test yet. If Wisconsin wins Saturday it will be a good test - a conference champion with two losses, both to top-5 teams, vs a 1-loss team in the same conference that didn't make the conference title game, but beat the champion head to head (in OT).

The criteria to be provided to the selection committee must be aligned with the ideals of the
commissioners, Presidents, athletic directors and coaches to honor regular season success while at the
same time providing enough flexibility and discretion to select a non-champion or independent under
circumstances where that particular non-champion or independent is unequivocally one of the four best
teams in the country.
When circumstances at the margins indicate that teams are comparable, then the following criteria must
be considered:
 Championships won
 Strength of schedule
 Head-to-head competition (if it occurred)
 Comparative outcomes of common opponents (without incenting margin of victory)

Yeah, Wisconsin isn't going to the playoff unless Clemson or Washington lose.

[Roranora]

Also,

but if they are the best team then why didn't they win their conference?

Cause they aren't playing the conference championship game. (Wouldn't we favor Ohio State to beat either Wisconsin or Penn State? Of course.)

This is the more interesting question to me. How might one differently crown a conference champion (or set the championship game matchup)? It's a tricky question with no simple answer.

I'm not a B1G fan and have no dog in this fight. I say let them get 3 teams in just for maximum fuckery.

[goozira]

Also,


Cause they aren't playing the conference championship game. (Wouldn't we favor Ohio State to beat either Wisconsin or Penn State? Of course.)

This doesn't make sense. Ohio State was favored against Penn State and lost. Michigan was favored over Iowa and lost. Just because a team is favored doesn't mean that they can't lose. That's why they play the game. And that also means that the best team isn't determined until they play the game.

[Roranora]

It makes perfect sense. Vegas even gives hypothetical lines at times. I'm not talking about Oct 22 at happy valley or whatever. I'm talking about this weekend at Lucas Oil. OSU would be favored vs Wisconsin, vs Penn State solidly, and probably narrowly vs Michigan. And similarly, though not always in the same vein, they are ranked higher than all those teams.

Of course underdogs win sometimes, water is also wet. We're ranking teams with imperfect resumes, and Ohio State's is far superior and that superiority is a huge part of why they would be favored against the teams actually playing the conference championship game. His question was why won't they win a game they're not playing. The answer is well they probably would win it if they were playing it.

[archibaldcrane]

By the criteria, it almost seems like Penn State winning would have the better argument than Wisconsin, given that they'd have both a conference title and a h2h win over OSU.

[Roranora]

If Wisconsin wins Saturday it will be a good test

We really need Clemson to shit the bed. Colorado may or may not need to beat Washington. I could see the committee leaving out a Pac-12 champ in Washington with its dismal OOC schedule, especially if they do anything less than lay waste on Friday night. Washington needs more quality wins.

Let's get both Michigan and Wisconsin in there. I'm bullish on Badga this weekend, but it won't be enough without some help.