President Donald J. Trump: Orange is the New Black, House Slytherin Rises Also Heil Trump!

[Zetanio]

China is also approaching the end of the industrialization bump and we have yet to see how they're going to cope without 7% GDP growth/year. AKA when they have to switch from stealing processes/technology from other countries to doing their own research to improve/create products, how will their economy hold up? Will it stagnate?

It will remain viable but it will be far less lucrative especially with the outside capital regulations they still have. The Chinese invented bureaucracy and as their economy matures, they'll have to rip apart a lot of old systems that are major cost sinks. Their stances on copyright enforcement and corruption leave a LOT to be desired.

[Fiye]

Watching MSNBC and they're talking about how Trump's transition team hasn't talked to various departments.

At this point 2017 is looming at the corner of the ring, waiting to tag out 2016 and jump on us.

[Zetanio]

It's been less than a week.

[Tyrath]

Well thats what he has a team for. To reach out everywhere.

[NynJa]

Watching MSNBC and they're talking about how Trump's transition team hasn't talked to various departments.

At this point 2017 is looming at the corner of the ring, waiting to tag out 2016 and jump on us.

Trump hasnt solved world hunger
Trump hasnt cured cancer
Trump hasnt brought peace to the world

Fuck Trump, worst president ever!!


Actually, he did spawn some hilarious Biden memes.

[Thunder]

Yeah, you lost me right here.

Things that are also different:

China has a baby middle class that has barely learned about mobility and spending power. A good gauge is how Chinese tourists act as compared to their counterparts from other countries, especially within their own region.

Central Planning: National Development and Reform Commission - Controls policy for the entire Chinese government and economy. Their control mechanisms drill all the way down to the internals of companies. Not just policy dictation.

The controls on their population, especially on the internet, religion, family size (Only recently resolved).

>_>;;;

The big differences I listed are the things related to their being called a communist country

They didn't choose what their middle class it doing, tourists, etc

I see how you could have tunneled on "the only big differences between US and china". But I made the statement about how they're not exactly communistic and then the rest the post was justifying that statement and refuting above points about how china is having terrible problems

[Fiye]

Actually, he did spawn some hilarious Biden memes.

I will admit the memes have been pretty dank.

[Zetanio]

>_>;;;

The big differences I listed are the things related to their being called a communist country

They didn't choose what their middle class it doing, tourists, etc

I see how you could have tunneled on "the only big differences between US and china". But I made the statement about how they're not exactly communistic and then the rest the post was justifying that statement and refuting above points about how china is having terrible problems

I know that you were only describing how China is Communist in name only however what they've shifted in to, control-wise, is almost worse.

China is on track for a disaster in the near future. We've seen the telltales of it with the steel industry. It will ripple VERY quickly. Their debt-to-GDP ratio is insane and unsustainable.

[Fiye]

http://www.politico.com/blogs/on-med...entials-231324

[Thunder]

I know that you were only describing how China is Communist in name only however what they've shifted in to, control-wise, is almost worse.

China is on track for a disaster in the near future. We've seen the telltales of it with the steel industry. It will ripple VERY quickly. Their debt-to-GDP ratio is insane and unsustainable.

I think the future is a lot more unknown than that, and probably even weighted toward's china's success in dealing with their deleveraging. As bad as you just described china to be, do you know the status of japan relative to china? How EU countries are doing? How we are doing?

All of those countries have a chance to cause a ripple effect, as you call it. Everyone is dealing with economic issues atm, japan was there first, then EU, then US, and china's gotten into it last. Their debt-to-gdp ratio IS insane, but like I've said their savings are TWICE that of their debt. And debt is all corporate, and we know that the big risk of massive debt is to take many years of income to service debt rather than grow economy with spending which causes cascading drops in income year-to-year by virtue of spending being so intrinsically linked with income (one man's spending is another man's income) - but china, by virtue of being literally a gigantic chunk of all corporations in china, has got first and final say on how that debt is being serviced. It isn't like japan where the govt did everything they could (lower interest rates, create govt. bonds to buy assets (QE), tax restructuring, etc) and people still chose to service their debt for literally decades and incomes kept on falling with the reduction of spending year-to-year. It is a little like japan where at least some chinese corporations don't know what to do with money as there are, today, a couple hundred million square feet of unused new corporate real estate - ghost towns, essentially. But other corporations are doing very well, auto makers are gaining, retail is up, services are getting a bump. Did you guys know they have a little less ambitious tesla over in china (byd) that's hugely profitable, unlike tesla?

Something I didn't say that thinking about japan has reminded me is china still has room to drop interest rates, unlike literally the rest of the world. + They've barely begun their quantitative easing while the US is already at its limit with what QE can do and will need to move onto other policies - and that's if we don't go with the route to raise interest rates this december and really kick off the global crisis cascade

Idk which telltale signs of steel industry you're trying to fit over china, but I'd say there are enough circumstances different that make the comparison kind of eh.

No doubt china is in a not-awesome place atm and I don't find fault in anybody doubting their future success because increasing debt faster than income has been a sign for almost immediate painful deleveraging. But that person has to be doubting every other major country even more because china has got more bullets in their arsenal of dealing with crisis than everyone else in the world atm

That's the reason I posted in the first place, if anyone thinks china is in a tough spot the rest of the big economic powers have got more precarious situations. This is related to trump's plans of trying to hurt china because hurting one of the largest exporters of the world during a time which every country is tip toeing through economic mine fields is strange, to me. And it can't be as simple as "more money will stay in the US" because we don't even have the infrastructure to support supplying a lot of today's corporations in the US so as far as I see it every bit of pain we cause china will be felt throughout the US

Idk, anyone else have thoughts on trump's plans with china?

[Zetanio]

I think Trump's plan with China is terrible and he's under-equipped to properly understand the situation.

I never said anyone was better off than China, it's nearly completely the opposite.
Japan is on the brink of default. The EU and UK are killing each other.
The US will get shellacked near term, especially given the probable and much need Fed Rate hikes.

My point was the difference between China and the US is much much larger than simple party systems. My other point, that I put inarticulately, was that a disaster in China has a MUCH larger worldwide impact than those other regions.

[Thunder]

Yeah, of course china and US differ much more than party systems

I wasn't trying to articulate their differences in totality as countries, economies, people, culture, everything else you mentioned. I was purely trying eliminate the fantasy that china is a communistic country

And to try and curb people's notions that china's system somehow doesn't work, whether it's because of 'communism' or whatever else.

[Zetanio]

Yeah, of course china and US differ much more than party systems

I wasn't trying to articulate their differences in totality as countries, economies, people, culture, everything else you mentioned. I was purely trying eliminate the fantasy that china is a communistic country

And to try and curb people's notions that china's system somehow doesn't work, whether it's because of 'communism' or whatever else.

I dislike their policies and internal controls but I'm not Chinese so what the fuck do I know?

[myreality]

So Trump learned that almost everyone serving Obama in the WH is leaving when he leaves. Trump realized he had to hire people quickly, so what does he do. Puts out all online application.....haha...ha....*sob*

https://www.greatagain.gov/serve-america.html

[Tyrath]

I mean he's already displayed that no experience is required so

[Zetanio]

Should we all just sign up and make BG great again?

[Andalusian girls]

Yeah, of course china and US differ much more than party systems

I wasn't trying to articulate their differences in totality as countries, economies, people, culture, everything else you mentioned. I was purely trying eliminate the fantasy that china is a communistic country

And to try and curb people's notions that china's system somehow doesn't work, whether it's because of 'communism' or whatever else.

they maintain a Soviet-style communist political apparatus. a one-party tyranny with ultimate legislative and executive power residing in an unelected politburo consisting entirely of senior party leadership, and the firmly established principle of the primacy of party officials over all other servants of the state. bureaucrats from comptroller to governor of a province must ultimately answer to the respective communist party official overseeing their region (in addition to of course being members of the party themselves).

economically they're in the process of liberalization producing a patchwork system of private and public entities in a semi-free market, and they have more or less abandoned in principle and practice the notion of collective ownership of the means of production. they dub it a socialist market economy and claim it represents the final stage of socialism, but to this observer it sounds of the familiar progression from a planned economy to a truly free market. that is to say the present iteration is transitional, inherently unstable, and there must either be further progression or regression.

as to your Trump question, catastrophic. the notion of the largest consumer market in the world slapping a 45% tariff on the world's largest exporter chills the bones of this free-trade globalist, and even in the absence of the vindictive reprisals that would surely follow would be enough to trigger global recession.

moreover the notion of China being a currency manipulator is archaic and uninformed. the Chinese are presently concerned about the yuan's depreciation and in the past year alone have sold half a trillion in foreign currency to prop up its value. if anything they are engaging in currency 'manipulation' to strengthen, not weaken, a yuan that the forex market considers overvalued.

that said Donald has already backed off a physical wall, prosecuting Clinton, and repealing key components of Obamacare. if he has any of the economic sense he claims to he will likewise back off initiating a disastrous trade war with China.

[Waraji]

First part of that read like a Holy Grail scene.

Skip to 1:40


Actually learned something about China with all that though. Thanks.

[Zetanio]

Help help I'm being oppressed!

[myreality]

BG members should apply to put allies of Zealot in the WH ahead of time.