115th United States Congress

[tyven]

So with their focus once again on the ACA, does this mean no time for Tax reform this year?

health reform via reconciliation must be completed by Sept 30. They are already hard at work on tax

[Deftscythe]

I may be misremembering but I think the way it works is as soon as a budget is passed, the GOP gets to pick a new subject for reconciliation.

[Ragnus]

Probably not since the Koch bothers said the re-prioritize back to this. Gotta keep your constituents happy.

[tyven]

I may be misremembering but I think the way it works is as soon as a budget is passed, the GOP gets to pick a new subject for reconciliation.

Generally, but usually a budget would be passed by now. The Senate Parliamentarian has ruled that reconciliation will apply to ACA repeal/replace legislation only until September 30. After that FY17 budget, which contains the reconciliation protection for ACA legislation, expires, along with the government’s fiscal year.

[Deftscythe]

Generally, but usually a budget would be passed by now. The Senate Parliamentarian has ruled that reconciliation will apply to ACA repeal/replace legislation only until September 30. After that FY17 budget, which contains the reconciliation protection for ACA legislation, expires, along with the government’s fiscal year.

Right. What I meant was that in regards to Aerin's comment about not having time for tax reform this year isn't really true since they could start trying to pass it as soon as they pass the next budget.

[archibaldcrane]

McCain a NO, for now. http://thehill.com/policy/healthcare...amacare-repeal

whoa

that's...surprising. He refused the skinny repeal bullshit before, but voted yes on the other actual bills. I thought between that and his buddy Graham he would be a go on this, and we were left to count on Paul, Murkowski and Collins.

Now we just have to hope they don't bribe Murkowski and have Paul cave. I have to assume Collins is a no on this as well.

[tyven]

whoa

that's...surprising. He refused the skinny repeal bullshit before, but voted yes on the other actual bills. I thought between that and his buddy Graham he would be a go on this, and we were left to count on Paul, Murkowski and Collins.

Now we just have to hope they don't bribe Murkowski and have Paul cave. I have to assume Collins is a no on this as well.

Guess McCain didn't want his state to lose 10 billion in funding or whatever

Collins leaning no, they are back to threatening Murkowski after she declined the bribe. Who knows if Paul has a spine.

[Day]

Paul's not caving he's been ranting all morning

[tyven]

Paul's not caving he's been ranting all morning

nice

[Deftscythe]

whoa

that's...surprising. He refused the skinny repeal bullshit before, but voted yes on the other actual bills. I thought between that and his buddy Graham he would be a go on this, and we were left to count on Paul, Murkowski and Collins.

Now we just have to hope they don't bribe Murkowski and have Paul cave. I have to assume Collins is a no on this as well.

Not all that surprising. All his criticisms about bad process and lack of regular order regarding the last repeal attempt are doubly true about GC. He can't support this bill without looking like an enormous hypocrite and he is all about his brand as a country-first maverick. That being said I would also not be surprised if he flipped before the final vote(if we get there). Edit: Also as Tyven said AZ would lose bigly if this went through.

I am cautiously optimistic about Murkowski. She has to have been pleased with all the praise she got at home and nationally for helping take down skinny and the large amount of coverage about all the bribes she's being offered make it very hard to take them without exposing herself.

[Talint]

I am happy that 25m+ (or whatever the insane number actually is) aren't going to lose health insurance, but I wasn't as concerned as I was the last time this came around. Not much has really changed since the last vote, and instead they're bleeding votes now.

[Tyche]

I just cannot envision a reality where Murkowski votes yes. As Deft said, she literally landed in Alaska to hundreds cheering her and giving her so much praise the last time. Even if they let her keep Obamacare as currently written, which is what is being reported, she would essentially be trading a conintuation of the same healthcare Alaska currently gets and screw over millions outside of the state...for no reason. She would achieve the same for her state by voting no. And her GOP governor is against the bill.

Speaking of...for some fucking reason, Governor Ducey of Arizona is for this bill. Which makes zero fucking sense given he was against skinny and his state would lose billions of dollars. So that is worrisome. McCain has stated many times that his vote would be heavily influenced by the governor, coupled with the fact that his best friend's name is first on the bill.

Paul...who fucking knows.

Collins...she has to be a No.

With that said, none of these people have any reason to publicly come out and oppose the bill. That would ratchet up the pressure on them and their colleagues. So I am not worried that McCain, Murkowski, and Collins aren't committing to no. Rand, that dude just gives zero fucks.

[Deftscythe]

My general feeling about these four hold-outs is that I am optimistic about them doing the right thing, but I will never underestimate the ability of any politician to disappoint me.

[Fiye]

Collins and Murkowski have at least been consistent about this from the beginning. Its just getting that third no.

[archibaldcrane]

Not all that surprising. All his criticisms about bad process and lack of regular order regarding the last repeal attempt are doubly true about GC.

But he still voted for one of the repeal attempts last time despite the lack of regular order (just not the one that was at 49 votes). That's why this is surprising to me.

Rand Paul keeping up his "no" is funny, because it feels like he's using his full-repeal-or-bust stance as cover to do what's best for Kentucky (which, obviously, is to keep Obamacare especially since Kentucky expanded Medicaid)

[Tyche]

But he still voted for one of the repeal attempts last time despite the lack of regular order (just not the one that was at 49 votes). That's why this is surprising to me.

Rand Paul keeping up his "no" is funny, because it feels like he's using his full-repeal-or-bust stance as cover to do what's best for Kentucky (which, obviously, is to keep Obamacare especially since Kentucky expanded Medicaid)

I feel like this is the case too, but he did vote for skinny which would have decimated Kentucky. And I don't think he knew (or anyone) expected to lose that vote at the 11th hour. So he was willing to hang Kentucky out to dry then. Honestly, I think Paul may be one of the few legitimate small government idealists left in congress. Paul has a pretty large independent and Republican following here in the state. Even some of my more liberal friends love him, probably in large part because of name and not policy. He can stick to his ideals without any risk. McConnell would get unseated before Paul. Honestly, Paul could pull a Murkowski pretty easily in this state and win on write-in if he were to get primaried. And it probably wouldn't be close.

[tyven]

i do not think Paul is covering for Kentucky. He is libertarian as fuck and if anyone truly wanted the swamp drained he was the candidate to back

[archibaldcrane]

He voted for skinny repeal after McConnell promised to put full repeal up to a vote (which he also voted for) - but he knew neither of those would pass.

[archibaldcrane]

Does Graham-Cassidy even cut taxes at all? I haven't heard that talked about in the slightest - are all of the ACA taxes still in the bill?

[Deftscythe]

But he still voted for one of the repeal attempts last time despite the lack of regular order (just not the one that was at 49 votes). That's why this is surprising to me.

Did he? I recall the procedural vote to being the actual voting process in the senate, but I don't recall an actual yes from him.