115th United States Congress

[Fiye]

The first or second one?

[archibaldcrane]

It's really a shame that this district is too red for him to win:

[Headspace]

It's really a shame that this district is too red for him to win:

Fuck lol

[Aerin]

GOP senator: Healthcare deal unlikely this year

Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.) says he doesn't think Congress is going to reach a deal to repeal and replace ObamaCare.

"It's unlikely that we will get a healthcare deal," Burr said in an interview with a North Carolina news station Thursday.

"I don't see a comprehensive healthcare plan this year."

The leading Republican senator also said the House bill was "dead on arrival," adding that it was "not a good plan."

[archibaldcrane]

Don't let them lull you into complacency, the turtle always has something up his shell.

[Headspace]

House going to vote on Dodd-Frank repeal soon, framing it as an end to bailing out big banks lmao


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[TsingTao]

Millions will be stupid enough to believe that too...sad.

[Fiye]

Reposting because of TsingTao's comment

[TsingTao]

Is that the FB fool you posted before or another financial guru Fiye? It feels like the same guy but I don't remember 'carnal rule' from before...amusing.
Thanks either way, spot on example.

[tyven]

House going to vote on Dodd-Frank repeal soon, framing it as an end to bailing out big banks lmao


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fear not as the CHOICE Act is DOA in the Senate. It actually has a lot of bipartisan elements but as usual the side in power tried to stuff in too much bullshit.

[TsingTao]

It's a thousand years ago, at least for this Senator. Holy War baby!

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/nati...icle-1.3223151

Hypocrites like this piss me off. Thou shalt not kill...except when I think it's a great idea and someone else goes and does it for me.

[archibaldcrane]

If anyone needs a primer on why "dumbass libs cheer for losing races closely" here you go: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...cid=538twitter

And the companion piece: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...st-everywhere/

[Quicklet]

Even if the signs are good, I'm concerned that there aren't going to be enough decent candidates in traditionally red districts to maximize whatever gains Dems get in 2018. Every seat where an R gets to run unopposed gives them more leeway to funnel money into the more competitive districts.

I'm also concerned that we're not going to make it to 2018 without a constitutional crisis, so there's that too.

[Kaslo]

If anyone needs a primer on why "dumbass libs cheer for losing races closely" here you go: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...cid=538twitter

And the companion piece: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...st-everywhere/

Alot of this is classic election forecasting... the party opposite to the President generally gains ground in Congress during the mid-term...

[archibaldcrane]

Alot of this is classic election forecasting... the party opposite to the President generally gains ground in Congress during the mid-term...

Of course, but the extent of those gains are tied quite closely with Presidential popularity and the generic congressional ballot, both of which are generating historically poor numbers for the incumbent administration.

[Talint]

Yes, let us continue to listen to the lanyard class. How quickly we forget how all of their forecasting and precognitive abilities shit the bed on election day.

Headed into Election Day, polling evangelist Nate Silver’s 538 website put Clinton’s odds at winning the White House at about 72 percent. By midnight, the site had more than flipped its odds making, giving Trump an 84 percent chance of winning.

Trump had notched hugely significant upset victories in Florida, North Carolina and Wisconsin — critical swing states where almost every public poll and most private projections had shown Clinton ahead.

How did everyone get it so wrong?

[Kaslo]

Yes, let us continue to listen to the lanyard class. How quickly we forget how all of their forecasting and precognitive abilities shit the bed on election day.



How did everyone get it so wrong?

538 aggregated everything together which is where their huge number came from. The actual presidential results were well within margins of errors in the swing states.

[archibaldcrane]

538 aggregated everything together which is where their huge number came from. The actual presidential results were well within margins of errors in the swing states.

Giving one candidate a 72% chance of victory is hardly a huge number. It's like the odds a given baseball player won't get a hit in an at-bat.

[Niiro]

Didn't 538 give Trump better odds than most?

[archibaldcrane]

There was no polling-based algorithm that gave Trump better odds than 538's 28% chance, no.