115th United States Congress

[Talint]

And only twice did Fivethirtyeight think republicans would retain the senate, one day before the election and a spell in July

Maybe democrats and republicans have different expectations from their parties, and democrats don't have a reason to show up at midterms?

Or we could just blindly follow the prognostication again.

[Andalusian girls]

you have a real problem with probabilistic thinking don't you

[Talint]

Immensely.

[archibaldcrane]

Maybe democrats and republicans have different expectations from their parties, and democrats don't have a reason to show up at midterms?

How did the Dems do in the last midterm where they were out of power?

[Talint]

How did the Dems do in the last midterm where they were out of power?

2006 swung the house and senate. Dem enthusiasm was off the charts, mostly due to the further gains made by republicans in the first midterm.

Not sure why we disregard that second bit of history there and focus on the first part.

[archibaldcrane]

Not sure why we disregard that second bit of history there and focus on the first part.

I wonder what event influenced the 2002 midterms

are you deliberately obtuse or trolling?

[Talint]

I wonder what event influenced the 2002 midterms

are you deliberately obtuse or trolling?

Deliberately obtuse. A troll from me would mean to flat out contradict facts, and nothing I've posted is an outright lie. I've said democrats will probably make gains in 2018 in the house, but I am not convinced it will be enough to take the house. And I think relying strictly on the election predictors as we have done to convince us everything is going to be okay is partly how we got President Trump in the first place.

Btw, that 2002 midterm event was democrats siding with republicans on starting an unpopular war in Iraq while riding the response of 9/11. It's like democrats didn't have a reason to show up.

[archibaldcrane]

Btw, that 2002 midterm event was democrats siding with republicans on starting an unpopular war in Iraq while riding the response of 9/11. It's like democrats didn't have a reason to show up.

You mean a war in Iraq with broad popular support pushed by a president with 60+% approval ratings that the majority of congressional Democrats opposed?

It's almost as if voters were rallying around the flag.

[archibaldcrane]

There's a new Democrat in Congress, a single-payer supporter named Jimmy Gomez in a race that went all-but-uncovered nationally (because it was two Dems against each other in my district, CA-34 - Downtown LA, Koreatown, Pasadena). This was a special election filling the seat of one-time rumored Hillary VP prospect Xavier Becerra who took the job as California's attorney general (which was vacated by Kamala Harris after she won November's Senate race).

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...=.f99d7b027b13

[kisada]

yeah i saw some stuff on twitter about it but didn't really understand the context or significance

[archibaldcrane]

So Tyven, when the Senate republicans successfully ram through this stealth AHCA bill, am I still going to get a grip of subsidy cash coming my way for my private-insured family of 4 even as everyone else gets fucked other than the 1%?

[tyven]

So Tyven, when the Senate republicans successfully ram through this stealth AHCA bill, am I still going to get a grip of subsidy cash coming my way for my private-insured family of 4 even as everyone else gets fucked other than the 1%?

no idea what's in the senate plan because these idiots just keep tripping over their own dicks but over the weekend McConnell said they are placing no artificial deadlines and that it will be revenue neutral which means they are going to vote on something by July 4th and chances are you become one of the fucked.

[archibaldcrane]

no idea what's in the senate plan because these idiots just keep tripping over their own dicks but over the weekend McConnell said they are placing no artificial deadlines and that it will be revenue neutral which means they are going to vote on something by July 4th and chances are you become one of the fucked.

Goddamnit I want to walk away from the explosion like Antonio Banderas if he had white privilege.

[Aerin]

Was just watching House member Chris Collins talk about repealing Dodd-Frank on CNN.

Collins: 25% of the community banks in America have shut down because of the onerous regulations they can't afford

Cuomo: But those regulations were put into place because you guys in Congress had allowed wild speculation and then bailed out the same people who wind up bankrupting thousands of Americans.

Collins: It went way too far and if we're going to get this economy moving with small businesses they tend to borrow from these community banks who are going down every day because of the regulatory burden. The fact that they have to set aside reserves for mortgages...

Cuomo: But once you roll back it's going to help a lot more than just community banks isn't that true congressman?

Collins: Oh well what we're rolling back, and by the way we are keeping the Durban amendment and the debit card fee so that's, uh, an acknowledgment that at least one part of...

Cuomo: But big banks are going to get the freedom to speculate in a way that hey couldn't before because of what you just rolled back. Isn't that true congressman?

Collins: Well, sure. We are removing regulations, this is America

Cuomo: So it's not just community banks and the little guy and who the little guy borrows from and Main Street vs. Wall Street, you also freed up the Wall Street guys that wildly speculated and caused the problem. Isn't that true?

Collins: Well, lessons learned Chris. Some of that speculation was clearly not, well uh, clearly after the fact not in the best interest of America

Cuomo: And now they can speculate more because of what you just rolled back.

Collins: They can run their business the way they see fit for their shareholders, we're not going to bail them out. If they make a mistake...

Cuomo: You cannot guarantee you will not bail them out right now. That is nowhere near codified in law and it happened the last time and now you made it easier for them to speculate again. True or false?

Collins: Well I can assure you I would never support bailing them out.

Cuomo: That's 1 vote.

Collins: The shareholders bare the risk. The shareholders pick the board who ultimately picks the officers and if some bank does stupid things and they overspeculate and something happens, they can go down.

Well, they learned their lesson and if they didn't they can go down. It won't hurt anyone but them and their shareholders, no worries.

[TsingTao]

That's fucking spectacular. Seriously.

I can't wait for some halfwit to regurgitate how these onerous regulations are stifling growth, killing small banks, and preventing businesses from expanding because they can't get capital.

[Talint]

Senate Republicans crack down on press access

Senate officials are cracking down on media access, informing reporters on Tuesday that they will no longer be allowed to film or record audio of interviews in the Senate side hallways of the Capitol without special permission.

Television reporters will now need permission from senators, the Senate Rules Committee, the Senate Sergeant-at-Arms or the Senate Radio and TV Gallery, depending on location, before conducting an on-camera interview with a senator anywhere in the Capitol or in the Senate office buildings, according to a Senate official familiar with the matter.

[Ragnus]

The newest move from your nation's party of small government and Constitutional liberty!

[archibaldcrane]

So the big argument right now is over whether Senate Dems should "withhold consent" - basically the "nuclear option" of parliamentary tactics, essentially shutting the Senate down, in order to slow down the AHCA. The goal would be to prevent a vote before the summer recess, forcing Republicans to go home to their angry constituents and try to explain why they are decimating Medicaid and ACA subsidies. There's a variety of (weak) arguments against doing so - that it would unify Republicans against Democrats (as if they aren't right now lol), but the biggest one is that "it wouldn't work" - offered by Senator Murray from Washington:



https://twitter.com/JStein_Vox/statu...98443023867904

Tyven - is she right? Would even "the nuclear option" not stop McConnell from bringing this to the floor for a vote before summer recess?

[Deftscythe]

It's worth noting that it wouldn't just delay the vote, though every day this bill can be delayed is worth whatever action, it would also end the perception that the Senate is operating under business ess as usual. The Dems taking big action like this would break through the Russia noise in the media and put a big spotlight on the cloak of shadows our favorite turtle has tried put over the entire process on this bill. Also, and this is a much lesser concern, it would show the base that Democrats are willing to take extraordinary action to lead and resist.

[Deftscythe]

Here's a thread on Twitter from Jeff Stein of Vox talking about the Dems logic in not withholding consent
https://mobile.twitter.com/JStein_Vo...85873785282564

It's the SC nomination all over again. I don't know what it's going to take for Dems to understand that the other side isn't playing y the rules anymore.