115th United States Congress

[kisada]

so basically they're going hard at passing this shit?

[tyven]

Yea but if they need another two weeks it means they've made virtually no progress

[archibaldcrane]

Don't trust any of these fucking snakes. They will fall in line, Collins and Heller will get the two free passes.

[tyven]

Don't trust any of these fucking snakes. They will fall in line, Collins and Heller will get the two free passes.

I agree its a matter of when not if. I never would have predicted it would take this long though. It's really insane. Consensus among staff is that they are no closer than they were prior to recess though, folks are expected a new discussion draft with proposed changes any day.

[archibaldcrane]

I agree its a matter of when not if. I never would have predicted it would take this long though. It's really insane. Consensus among staff is that they are no closer than they were prior to recess though, folks are expected a new discussion draft with proposed changes any day.

But at what point do they lose reconciliation protections and have to scrap this effort for at least a year? Or is there never a point where that happens?

[tyven]

But at what point do they lose reconciliation protections and have to scrap this effort for at least a year? Or is there never a point where that happens?

When they pass a budget for FY 2018, altho in that budget they could direct reconciliation for health but they would lose it for tax reform.

Mnuchin said they will have a tax reform plan done by year end so it doesnt sound like they are ready to give up on that and it sounds like McConnell wants to move the fuck on from health and get started on tax reform.

[archibaldcrane]

But they can't "reform" (cut) nearly as much in taxes if they haven't already cut the taxes inherent in the BCRA, right? So failing to pass a health care bill means their tax cut options are significantly reduced?

[tyven]

But they can't "reform" (cut) nearly as much in taxes if they haven't already cut the taxes inherent in the BCRA, right? So failing to pass a health care bill means their tax cut options are significantly reduced?

Not sure what their limitations will be when they try tax reform because literally everything from the last decade is on the table including Dave Camp's (D!) plan from when D's last controlled the House.

[Athas]

Could someone explain how they can use reconciliation on health care at all?

[Talint]

The legal/rules answer is that, as it is a budget bill that affects only budgetary matters, it only requires a simple majority.

The political answer is that the democrats let themselves get played a whole fuckton.

[Byrthnoth]

Could someone explain how they can use reconciliation on health care at all?

Depending on the interpretation of the senate parliamentarian, reconciliation can be used on most things that are revenue neutral, which Obamacare was. They're cutting the benefits from Obamacare (~1bil) while also cutting the taxes used to pay for them (~1.2bil), so they're coming out with a net savings of 200bil (revenue neutral), some of which they will probably use on the pet project of whichever senator holds out the longest.

The limitation is that they can only be considering one bill passed via reconciliation at a time and more or less once a year.

[TsingTao]

Senate's latest version of Trumpcare revealed.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/13/u...care-bill.html

Keeps the 3.8 percent tax on investment income and the 0.9 percent payroll tax, includes Cruz's amazing "Insurers can offer shit plans as long as one isn't shit" provision, other lovely bits.

[archibaldcrane]

I don't really understand how Cruz's amendment is Byrd-able. Have they had conversations with the parliamentarian about how this could possibly be allowed?

Also they increased the insurance stabilization funding that Rand Paul continually rails against (calling it a slush fund for insurers, which it kinda is) - they seem completely unafraid of his bluster on this.

However, I don't see how this helps get Collins or Heller on board either. Seems simply ideologically driven, not really the type of compromise that will make it politically viable. Of course, never underestimate Republican spinelessness.

The most notable thing is that it does very little to boost coverage. All the medicaid cuts are intact and unchanged, so they won't pick up anything there, and the biggest market change is that in states that allow the Cruz amendment changes, there will be catastrophic plans available that people can use their subsidies on - although I was under the impression that the CBO wouldn't even consider catastrophic plans to be "insurance" in their numbers.

[archibaldcrane]

Oh, you can also use HSAs to pay for premiums under this plan, so great for the upper middle-class+ that can take advantage of this tax break and plan for it.

[archibaldcrane]

Seems stupid though - why not just make all insurance premiums tax deductible? Why do you have to launder that money through an HSA and pay fees to establish your HSA first?

[archibaldcrane]

there will be catastrophic plans available that people can use their subsidies on

Correction: these non-ACA-compliant plans would not be eligible for subsidy use.

(so what is the fucking point?)

https://twitter.com/sangerkatz/statu...42335827910656

[Gredival]

Don't think it changes anything for the warring inner factions.

If Republicans were moving any closer to a deal yesterday, they didn’t show it. Among the rotating cast of senators most likely to keep the bill shy of 50 votes, no one seemed to be softening — if anything, some opponents seem to be hardening.

Sen. Rand Paul, whose vote was already gone, reiterated his opposition yesterday.

The bill’s moderate critics — including Sens. Susan Collins, Shelley Moore Capito and Lisa Murkowski — are still concerned about Medicaid, and for now, the Medicaid cuts seem locked in.

The insurance industry’s opposition to Cruz’s consumer-choice plan won’t help it win moderate support, and if it doesn’t find a way into the bill, Cruz, Mike Lee and (potentially) Ron Johnson are likely out.

https://www.axios.com/here-comes-the...mpaign=organic

[archibaldcrane]

Senate is looking at possibly using an HHS "score" for the revised bill instead of submitting it to the CBO.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-polit...ealth-bill-cbo

[Tyche]

OMG, that score will be glorious.

Bill saves 18 trillion dollars over 10 months
Bill increases the insured by 400 million people by next week
Enlarges a male penis by 4 inches

[Talint]

Do people really care about CBO scores.