SCOTUS Thread (News and Discussion): Eight Becomes Nine

[Day]

This is the closest you've ever come to making me laugh lol.

Then I read the rest of your post. Fucking 6 year plan to take down a sort of talked about potential nominee of someone who lost their presidential election. Goddamn, the dedication and foresight on this woman must be fucking incredible lol.

I mean I guess if she was really dedicated she could be playing the long game but I lean towards what Archi said. From a timeline standpoint saying this is fabricated to mess up his political career doesn't make sense. That buddy's books talking about how they were in high school don't help the situation either.

I mean, obviously it would be stupid to say she was planning on releasing all this in 2018 and went to therapist in 2012 to put down the evidence. What I've seen some imply is that she was planning on doing this in 2012 if he was indeed Romney's pick. I don't really agree, and think that's a pretty big stretch, but his name was indeed on a short list much like the one this time where she sent in a tip to Wapo in July and she fully admits her reasoning there, I get it I guess but it's not like we wasn't a sitting judge all this time?

I'm mostly fuckin around repeating what they are saying on conservotwitter.

I am curious about this "former FBI agent" that administered the polygraph test, was it that Strokz guy LMAO

[Dimmauk]

LOL. I can't even

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...im/1333520002/

Fucking asshole

[Day]

[Dimmauk]

Why did he capitalize miss? Was he Miss High School?

[Zealot]

Or maybe she brought it up then exactly because his name was floater as a potential SCOTUS nominee and she heard it and said "Jesus, that's the guy who tried to rape me."

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[Daydreamer]

Another question - I'm seeing on the therapist thing, that Kavanaugh isn't specifically mentioned. Wouond't that impact the argument? Or do the notes say that it was at the same school or town or something? I can't find the actual notes themselves to look at.

[Eurell]

Another question - I'm seeing on the therapist thing, that Kavanaugh isn't specifically mentioned. Wouond't that impact the argument? Or do the notes say that it was at the same school or town or something? I can't find the actual notes themselves to look at.

The notes mention everything but his name. The town, school, year, what he was currently doing in D.C.

[archibaldcrane]

Over or under?

https://www.predictit.org/Contract/1...by-Oct-31#data

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[Katlan]

So they are both going to testify. So... is Kavanaugh basically going to lie under oath when she, her therapist, and whomever else comes forward to say this happened?

[Salodin]

Over or under?

https://www.predictit.org/Contract/1...by-Oct-31#data

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By Oct 31st? She votes yes. Easy money. #MeToo ain't strong enough to derail this guy during repub control.

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[Dimmauk]

By Oct 31st? She votes yes. Easy money. #MeToo ain't strong enough to derail this guy during repub control.

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The last time this happened the repubs got destroyed and we got Dianne Feinstein

[Salodin]

They getting destroyed already. Their hardcore base wont budge for shit, get this lifetime appointment Win and ride the tsunami out. The survivors will weather the flood that follow and everyone who got washed away will land in a lobbying firm somewhere, or quite honestly just retiring now that they can afford it with a new tax plan.

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[Tyche]

The easy play here for Republicans is to tank this nomination and get another candidate asap. If they win the Senate, cool. If not, ram it through in the dead period between the election and January (which would look absolutely awful).

[Tyrath]

I'm too cynical to believe he won't get through even with all this..

[Andalusian girls]

Yeah! 1 person might care!

Susan Collins (long considered the #1 possible Republican defector) has now called for formal hearings and is being joined by Joe Manchin, Heidi Heitkamp, and Joe Donelly, the three red-state Democrats who voted to confirm Neil Gorsuch. as stated a formal Flake no vote is certainly a non-zero possibility but perhaps more importantly his (and Corker's who everyone seems to be forgetting) voiced opposition gives political cover to the moderate Republicans to voice their own, and makes it far more difficult for the three moderate Dems to cross party lines. at the very least there are now 3 Republican Senators on record, with a 4th in Murkowski offering tepid support, as wanting to delay the vote, as wanting to hear from the accuser who has fairly substantial evidence on her side.

cynicism is fine, and perhaps earned in this current climate, but too often it is passed off as wisdom. he may very well still get confirmed, shooting off at the hip i'd still say it's probable in the 60:40 range, but that is a far cry from the 95:5 it had previously been when we were all simply hoping and praying Collins and Murkowski would say no and no red-state Dems would cross over, even though all 5 of them went for Gorsuch.

[archibaldcrane]

Man I sure would feel a lot better about this situation if the Dems had more than a 1 in 3 shot of retaking the Senate.

[Eurell]

I was mostly just fucking with you. But I'm very happy that as of right now, I was wrong.

[archibaldcrane]

Senate race is weird. If Dems win every race they are favored in (per 538 classic model) they'll win 51-49. That's the classic hold serve on all your vulnerable seats and win AZ/NV situation. But they're still only 1 in 3 to take control because there's so many close races that they're favored in narrowly (ND/MO/FL/AZ/NV/IN are all between 56-77% chance to win). A true blue tsunami gets them Texas and Tennessee as well - but there's only a 7.5% chance they take 53 or more.

[Zealot]

All I ask for is Ted Cruz to get Beto'd.

[Mertron]

Over or under?

https://www.predictit.org/Contract/1...by-Oct-31#data

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taking all my money out of the meme economy before the eu collapses