SCOTUS Thread (News and Discussion): Eight Becomes Nine

[Olo401]

In other SCOTUS news, a 5-3 decision today in Moore v. Texas is a pretty massive win for opponents of capital punishment.

Basically they said Texas's mental competency standards for determining whether to pursue the death penalty are garbage and they need to use actual medical standards.

[Talint]

When this whole idea started, I was sure you were right.

I'm not so sure now.

You don't think there will be a "Gang of #" deal?

[archibaldcrane]

You don't think there will be a "Gang of #" deal?

Doesn't sound like that's what Schumer is pushing for.

[Tyrath]

it's not unexpected but somewhat amusing as Gorsuch is the type of conservative replacing a conservative that would have easily picked up enough Dems to get confirmed in normal times

Thats probably why theres the thought that they want to let this one go through and save the battle for the next one.

For replacing Scalia, he's really not that bad. It's more the fact that its a stolen fucking seat.

[Gredival]

You don't think there will be a "Gang of #" deal?

So the Dems in danger (up in 2018 and represent red states) are Manchin, Donnelly, Testor, Heitkamp, Brown and McCaskill. Assuming that Schumer holds everyone else steady, he can afford to let all of them defect. With the exception of Cortez-Masto who isn't up for another 6, all the other Dems that would have had to play moderate lost their race last year.

[archibaldcrane]

It's easier to get Republicans on board for defeating a filibuster at 55 votes than 50.

[Quicklet]

Manchin and Heitkamp will be voting for Gorsuch.

McCaskill (an important swing vote) will oppose Gorsuch and be voting against cloture. Very difficult for Republicans to get to 60 now.

[tyven]

I am very excited to live the rest of my adult life in a post-nuclear option SCOTUS world

[Xajii]

Congress is full of some mad lads right now

[Talint]

Donnelly becomes third Dem to back Gorsuch; Tester to vote no

It's looking like McConnell is going to have to go nuclear.

[mallister]

Donnelly becomes third Dem to back Gorsuch; Tester to vote no

It's looking like McConnell is going to have to go nuclear.

do you think they'll actually do it?

[Quicklet]

Yes.

This was virtually inevitable the moment they decided to refuse to have hearings on Garland.

[Talint]

do you think they'll actually do it?

It's a game of chicken at this point. It's not unreasonable to see any number of scenarios play out:
Republicans cave and pull Gorsuch.
Democrats cave and allow for the vote.
Neither budge and republicans go nuclear.

It's going to be a matter of who blinks first.

</game theory>

Yes.

This was virtually inevitable the moment they decided to refuse to have hearings on Garland.

tbh, this seems like the likeliest scenario.

Most legislative jockeying/blocking is a very frustrating norm. Where the unprecedentedness (is that a word) comes in is the blocking of judicial nominees while Obama was in office AND democrats had a majority but not a supermajority. Republicans understand what the power of having conservatives judges on the bench means, and had absolutely no desire to cede any ground on judicial appointees for that reason.

This is why McConnell refused Obama's last nomination to the SC, even in Garland's moderateness. Gorsuch, a much more conservative justice, is what they want so not to tip the scales. McConnell very likely will go nuclear. He and republicans will try their best to blame it on Reid and say that he set the precedent for this, which is a lie. Reid went nuclear after five years of unprecedented obstruction (again, going back to the power of having conservative judges in courts means) in blocking ALL nominees, very explicitly mentioning that he did not want to change the confirmation process for supreme court justices.

[Talint]

A CHALLENGER APPEARS!

Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet opposes filibuster of Neil Gorsuch, use of 'nuclear option'

DENVER – Michael Bennet, Colorado’s Democratic U.S. senator, opposes a Democrat filibuster of Judge Neil Gorsuch but still hasn’t definitively said whether he’ll vote for or against the Colorado judge for a Supreme Court seat.

Bennet announced Monday that he would oppose a filibuster that is growing increasingly likely in the Senate, as Bennet becomes just the fourth Democrat to say they would oppose such a move by the Democratic colleagues.

[Andalusian girls]

anyone who thinks Gorsuch isn't getting confirmed is high as balls. the only thing Dems can affect is exactly how that comes to be.

[archibaldcrane]

Do Republicans need 50 or 51 to change the rules? Is that something that Pence can break a tie on or no? (not sure if it matters that it is rules as opposed to voting on a bill)

[Talint]

As my understanding of it goes, "going nuclear" just means simple majority to change the rules. In cases of 50/50, Pence gets the tiebreaker.

Democrats would need 9 republicans to defect to prevent the rule change.

[archibaldcrane]

As my understanding of it goes, "going nuclear" just means simple majority to change the rules. In cases of 50/50, Pence gets the tiebreaker.

Democrats would need 9 republicans to defect to prevent the rule change.

uh, 9?

They'd need 2 (if Pence can't break) or 3 (if he can) to prevent the rule change - assuming no Democrat is voting to nuke the filibuster, which none will.

[Talint]

uh, 9?

They'd need 2 (if Pence can't break) or 3 (if he can) to prevent the rule change - assuming no Democrat is voting to nuke the filibuster, which none will.

For some reason I was thinking 42 to make 51.

I can math.

[Talint]

If the Democrats could hold for the nuclear option vote:

Collins(ME), Toomey (PA), Portman (OH) is the path. 49 in favor, 51 against changing the rule.

But, I can't imagine McConnell lets a defeat like that happen.