SCOTUS Thread (News and Discussion): Eight Becomes Nine

[shukudai]

I only say it'll be over next week cause kavanaigh said he'll testify again, and fords said she'll testify next week, just not on monday. If this takes longer than a week its cause Republicans stalled it, or the FBI got involved and needed more time (this is unlikely cause the last time it happened it took 3 days to finish).

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Based on what you're saying, here's how I look at it. Who benefits the most from a delay?

Republicans: I believe you mean they benefit from the delay because there will be less of a backlash the longer they delay things, and they're trying to soften the blow when they do nominate him?
Democrats: I believe they have a lot more to gain by the delays, primarily if they can keep it going until the midterm elections they can definitively stop him which is their goal. Anything they can do to keep him off the bench is in their favor, that's their goal.

If I'm accurate in those two presumptions, I feel like the Republicans stand a better chance to come out of this on top. They accrue benefit from the delays in the way you describe, the more time passes the better it is - with the caveat that Kavanaugh actually gets the nomination. For the Democrats, they accrue benefit right from the start, every day they delay/stall or eventually stop Kavanaugh from being nominated is a gain for them. They lose the moment he's nominated, and just like the right gets it from their base when they lose something big, the current crop of leftist politicians are going to get run out of town by their base.

[Salodin]

Uhhhhh, I think you need to qualify what you mean by who comes out on top. I dont think it matters how credible her allegations are, I dont see Republicans withdrawing this nomination. At the end of the day they're going to "win" no matter what, imo, because this guy is going to the scotus. But they're gonna take massive flak for it. Is it enough to add to the tsunami that's already coming? Possibly, as archi posted a poll where independants moved away from supporting the nomination following these allegations. Is it enough to make it worth this drama? Well, it's a lifetime appointment so yeah I'd say it's worth it.

But they're going to pay for it one way or another. I dont pretend to know if they'll pay enough, but the backlash to this administration and Congress has been percolating for quite while and I think I hear that steam whistle picking up.

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[shukudai]

Also, thanks! It's rare to be able to talk about this stuff without all the yelling and screaming and snide remarks and crap. I definitely have that urge to be like "What? No, how the fuck can someone believe that, I want to be sarcastic as fuck", but that doesn't help as much as it can be enjoyable. I try to give equal credence to both sides, even when I find one of them to be ridiculous, and see how their argument holds.

Also, idk Tyche? I don't remember everyone, but since you posted on BG I remember you, and have some vague memory of you having a kid and breast feeding while holding Tiamat.

[Salodin]

Roflll

Hey Tyche, send the nudes my man.

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[Day]

Tyche breastfeeding sounds about right

[Tyche]

It was like a 2am pop. 6-man tiamat back when tiamat was difficult. I was solo healing with one hand. While bottle feeding with the other. With breast milk.

[Tyche]

Pretty sure I got my boots that night.

[Salodin]

bottle

Sure it was.

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[Zealot]

Reagan's daughter just added her name to the list of people using #WhyIDidntReport and she wrote an op-ed about it.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...=.b8a41fd230ee

[Salodin]

Amazing how fast comments from Trump get people to speak out.

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[archibaldcrane]

Reagan's daughter just added her name to the list of people using #WhyIDidntReport and she wrote an op-ed about it.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...=.b8a41fd230ee

wow.

[shukudai]

Uhhhhh, I think you need to qualify what you mean by who comes out on top. I dont think it matters how credible her allegations are, I dont see Republicans withdrawing this nomination. At the end of the day they're going to "win" no matter what, imo, because this guy is going to the scotus. But they're gonna take massive flak for it. Is it enough to add to the tsunami that's already coming? Possibly, as archi posted a poll where independants moved away from supporting the nomination following these allegations. Is it enough to make it worth this drama? Well, it's a lifetime appointment so yeah I'd say it's worth it.

But they're going to pay for it one way or another. I dont pretend to know if they'll pay enough, but the backlash to this administration and Congress has been percolating for quite while and I think I hear that steam whistle picking up.

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Sure. By coming out on top, I imagine the situation as two competing bar graphs. The more the Republicans delay, the higher their bar graph goes. But eventually, Kavanaugh gets nominated, and they're not delaying anymore, they've met their objective, and there's a public backlash, but that backlash will be lessened by their delay, people will be able to say they gave it time, they delayed the hearing, they gave this chance, they gave that chance. They'll be bloodied, but have crossed the finish line so to speak.

The Democrats however, only reap benefit as long as they delay. Every single day that Kavanaugh is delayed, that's of benefit to them and their party, whether it's one day delay, or a month's delay. But if Kavanaugh ends up elected, all their delaying doesn't mean bullshit, and their party is going to be angry at them for not succeeding or delaying things further, or better yet stopping it completely, plus the right already despises the left, so they're going to come out of this bloodied, and with not too much to show for it.

I also disagree with you not seeing Republicans not withdrawing under any situation. They're literally the "We want proof, then we act." group here. Depends where your bias is. If the allegation is proven to be true, and the Republican's withdraw it can be seen as either "They asked for proof, they got it, now they acted on it." if you agree with them, and it'll be treated as "Of course they're acting on it now, they're self serving politicians and now that it's proven, of course they're turning their back on him, what else could they do?" if you don't agree with them on it.

I'm also now reading that she *did* tell a friend, one year ago, which would be before the nomination was a thing. I've also read that her psychiatrist said she didn't name Kavanaugh, though she and her husband say she did. They claim the psychiatrist also made a mistake when writing down that 4 people were mentioned, and she's claiming two. These don't denote guilt to me, they denote a discrepancy in the story. Could the psychiatrist have just misheard or misunderstood? Maybe. Could she have changed her story? Maybe.

I do find it kind of fucked up that while I personally can't decide, there are pundits who are absolutely certain of what will happen, and have diametrically opposing views of what'll happen and I'm almost more eager just to see what does happen, to see who guessed right, and if the logic they used to come to their conclusion holds water.

[Day]

CNN asks a group of women if they believe Kavanaugh

https://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/sta...072908802?s=19

[Eurell]

"What boy hasn't done this in high school?"

Jesus fuck, what is wrong with people

[Day]

Just human things

[mallister]

"What boy hasn't done this in high school?"

Jesus fuck, what is wrong with people

had this exact conversation at work monday.

fucking migraine inducing.

[Niiro]

"What boy hasn't done this in high school?"

What a cunt.

[Byrthnoth]

Only pussies don't attempt rape in high school.

Day! Day! Day! Am I a Republican yet?

[shukudai]

I'm gonna actually agree on that, when I heard the "What boy hasn't done this in high school?", my head kind of bent sideways, and just kept on going. I'm gonna say, a vast, overwhelming majority of boys haven't done that in HS, or HS has changed more than I can imagine -_-;

[Day]

Only pussies don't attempt rape in high school.

Day! Day! Day! Am I a Republican yet?

?