Oh LAWD, is that Corbyn's music? (UK Elections 2017)

[archibaldcrane]

Let's do Brit elections in here!



Ok so Conservatives held a majority in the British House of Commons for a while now, and David Cameron was prime minister. So he has this stupid idea to put Brexit to a vote, while wanting it to fail...but not really coming out hard against it. So the people vote on Brexit and SUPRISE MOTHERFUCKER they make the dumbass decision to leave the EU. Cameron resigns, and Theresa May is chosen by the party as the Prime Minister/Conservative leader. She begins the process of Brexit.

Meanwhile the Labour party (the prime opposition) has been in disarray for years, and polling shows the Conservatives in a quite strong position (up 20ish points) - and while the Conservatives have the majority, it's only slim, they have 330 of the 650 seats in the HoC, and they think "hey, if we hold a snap election right now we'll pick up a bunch more seats, have a way stronger position, May's leadership will be codified by the voters and she'll have a stronger position from which to negotiate a "hard" Brexit".

Flash forward until last week and polling shows the Tories (aka the Conservatives) only up roughly 7 points. They need to win by like 4 to keep a bare minimum of 326 seats for a majority (there's a bunch of more minor parties that also get seats, but ideally you control with your party alone not needing to ally with other parties for a coalition majority). So basically shit has gone sideways as May has been a disaster in all her public statements and appearances for the past month (notable incidents involve her talking about scrapping human rights laws if needed to fight terrorism, and a change to funding in-home care for the elderly under the UK health system that became derided as the "dementia tax") and they may not pick up any new seats at all - and with a normal polling error against they they may even lose their majority (a disaster for Conservatives that would probably cost May her leadership).

But have no fear, polling has routinely underestimated the Tories for the past 20 years, they'll probably be fine.

They voted today.

So the exit polling just came out, which is often quite reliable, and shows....a hung parliament - 316 seats for the Conservatives (and 266 for Labour with the rest to the minor parties, mainly SNP (scottish national party) and the Liberal Democrats (Lib Dems) and a variety of northern ireland parties (notably Sinn Fein, a throwback to the troubles and IRA days).

Results are coming in now - will the exit polls be right? Or with the absolute boy Jeremy Corbyn pull off a wild upset for Labour by keeping the Tories without a majority?

Spoiler: show

everything in this post I learned in about the past week so I probably fucked a thing or two up, feel free to correct me

[Zealot]

[Andalusian girls]

thank you for this Zealot.

if you ever need a token conservative forex trader in your cabinet hit a brother up.

[archibaldcrane]

Here's the Guardian live blog of results: https://www.theguardian.com/politics...live-news-line

[archibaldcrane]

So, what's the deal with Sinn Fein not "taking their seats" - what does that mean? Is it some form of multi-decade protest? Does someone else take them or what?

[Cliron]

I hate to be drawn to the low level bait that's not majorly significant to the election as a whole (but I guess NI or Scotland is rarely actually considered significant in these things). But get fucked by referring to Sinn Fein as a throwback to the troubles and the IRA. Sinn Féin's rise is due to the hubris of the Unionists and Brexit.

Northern Ireland politics are a shit show at the moment, and has been disasterously handled by Westminster. Last time I checked they haven't had an active government for months due to the 'cash for ash' scandal of the unionists.

Not to mention how the fuck brexit (which Northern Ireland voted overwhelmingly against) is going to work when sharing a border with the republic.

And I'm not saying that like I want the god forsaken place to rejoin the republic. That welfare country would cripple our economy in these murky times (Ireland in EU, but our biggest trading partner out?).

[Cliron]

Where you seeing about Sinn Fein not taking their seats? Is that this election or the last two (or is it three? that have happened in the last few months

[Cliron]

Found a good summary from the last election cycle that might give an insight into the crazy shenanigans that have been going on:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-38612860

How does Northern Ireland's government work?
Northern Ireland has a power-sharing government, in which Irish nationalists and unionists must work together.
The system was set up to provide a political settlement after years of conflict. A first minister and a deputy first minister are appointed to lead an Executive Committee of Ministers.
In the current Stormont Executive, the Democratic Unionist Party has six ministers and Sinn Féin has five. An independent unionist holds the justice ministry.
Westminster has delegated powers to Stormont which cover most areas of government.

Why did Martin McGuinness step down?
Martin McGuinness resigned as deputy first minister following a row between Sinn Féin and the DUP over a green energy scheme.
The DUP leader, Arlene Foster, was the minister in charge of the Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI) when it was set up in 2012.
The scheme was designed to encourage businesses to switch from fossil fuels to more environmentally friendly energy sources. But subsidies were overly generous and initially there was no cap on the payments.
The scheme is projected to run £490m over budget, although the DUP say they have a plan to eliminate the overspend.
Mr McGuinness quit after Mrs Foster rejected his calls for her to temporarily stand aside as first minister while an investigation was carried out.

Is it all about the RHI scandal?
The RHI scandal has caused the most public rift between the parties in recent weeks.
But Martin McGuinness referred to other issues in his resignation letter. There are many disagreements between the parties.
On Brexit, the DUP wanted the UK to leave the EU - Sinn Féin took the opposite position.
Sinn Féin wants to legalise same-sex marriage in Northern Ireland, but the DUP does not.
Just before Christmas, a DUP minister withdrew funding for an Irish language bursary scheme, in a move which angered nationalist parties.
There are also differences on the issue of how new agencies to investigate killings from the Troubles should operate.

[archibaldcrane]

I hate to be drawn to the low level bait that's not majorly significant to the election as a whole (but I guess NI or Scotland is rarely actually considered significant in these things). But get fucked by referring to Sinn Fein as a throwback to the troubles and the IRA. Sinn Féin's rise is due to the hubris of the Unionists and Brexit.

Northern Ireland politics are a shit show at the moment, and has been disasterously handled by Westminster. Last time I checked they haven't had an active government for months due to the 'cash for ash' scandal of the unionists.

Not to mention how the fuck brexit (which Northern Ireland voted overwhelmingly against) is going to work when sharing a border with the republic.

And I'm not saying that like I want the god forsaken place to rejoin the republic. That welfare country would cripple our economy in these murky times (Ireland in EU, but our biggest trading partner out?).

Check my spoiler, I know very, very little about Northern Ireland or Sinn Fein. If you want to give a brief refresher I'm all ears.

But as far as not taking their seats, apparently it's something they don't do? They boycott Westminster entirely or something?

From the Guardian liveblog:

Speaking at the Belfast Count in the Titanic Quarter, Gerry Adams was asked if he would reconsider Sinn Fein’s abstaining from Westminster. Ruling it out, the party president said:

No. If we are fortunate enough to have candidates elected as MPs it will beon the basis that we will not be going to take our seats in Westminster.

Adams said it was “very interesting that Jeremy Corbyn did so well [in the exit poll]” but again when asked if his party’s MPs could have an influence on Brexit negotiations if they took their seats in the Commons, Adams repeated that the policy of not attending Westminster would continue.

He probably realises that for many in the Sinn Féin grassroots, dropping their historical policy of boycotting Westminster could result in another schism in mainstream Irish republicanism. Net result: at least four seats for Corbyn will not be up for grabs.

[archibaldcrane]

I hate to be drawn to the low level bait that's not majorly significant to the election as a whole (but I guess NI or Scotland is rarely actually considered significant in these things). But get fucked by referring to Sinn Fein as a throwback to the troubles and the IRA. Sinn Féin's rise is due to the hubris of the Unionists and Brexit.

Northern Ireland politics are a shit show at the moment, and has been disasterously handled by Westminster. Last time I checked they haven't had an active government for months due to the 'cash for ash' scandal of the unionists.

Not to mention how the fuck brexit (which Northern Ireland voted overwhelmingly against) is going to work when sharing a border with the republic.

And I'm not saying that like I want the god forsaken place to rejoin the republic. That welfare country would cripple our economy in these murky times (Ireland in EU, but our biggest trading partner out?).

Also I forgot you were Irish, that last paragraph was really confusing me for a bit there. When you say "the godforsaken place" you're referring to Northern Ireland?

[Andalusian girls]

Check my spoiler, I know very, very little about Northern Ireland or Sinn Fein. If you want to give a brief refresher I'm all ears.

that should just about cover everything you need know about those Ulster dogs

[Andalusian girls]

but yes Sinn Fein has long operated a policy of abstention in Northern Ireland (in the Irish Republic they operate as a normal political party), they stand for seats as independents (as Sinn Fein is not recognized as a political party in Northern Ireland) and when victorious refuse to use those seats to attend the UK Parliament. it is their way of protesting the partition and pushing for unification, and they have been doing so for the past 100 years.

[Cliron]

The facts of the matter don't really convey the whole legitimate uproar and drama that the brought the power sharing govt down though. Every day for awhile more and more crazy stuff was coming out: There was this interview where I think Arlene Foster's assistant started praying before and interview and broke down in tears talking about sick children for some reason.




Go to 31:00 for the breakdown about children hospitals and god telling him to tell the truth

[Cliron]

but yes Sinn Fein has long operated a policy of abstention in Northern Ireland (in the Irish Republic they operate as a normal political party), they stand for seats as independents (as Sinn Fein is not recognized as a political party in Northern Ireland) and when victorious refuse to use those seats to attend the UK Parliament. it is their way of protesting the partition and pushing for unification, and they have been protesting and pushing in this manner for 100 years.

What bullshit is this?

[archibaldcrane]

It always cracks me up when thinking about Great Britain and Ireland how fucking tiny they are, and how culturally specific the different areas are given that tinyness.

It's like...can you imagine if parts of Minnesota (about the size of GB) had wildly different accents and even languages as you drove around the state? Or that one part of Indiana (the size of Ireland+NI together) referred to the other part as "the godforsaken place"?

Like, I was looking at the Tesla supercharger maps and was like "huh there's none in Ireland" but then I realized you can barely drive 250 miles in one direction without running out of fucking land in Ireland. (actually there is one there now)

[Cliron]

Sinn Fein brought down the powersharing government over the fact that Arlene Foster wouldn't resign over it, along with other issues such as NI being the only country that doesn't have gay marriage (and the unionists point blank refuse to let it go to a referendum, or even discussed in govt.), they are refusing to allow govt. documents to be printed in Irish (are you fucking for real?).

Now Sinn Fein are opportunistic as fuck and love that they are relevant in a way that isn't just "give us back our 6 counties". Martin McGuinness was terminally ill, so him dissolving the govt was a very clever poker hand to play.

Sinn Fein now state (with the public's backing) that they wont return to powersharing unless Arlene resigns and more of their demands are in considered.

Arlene wont stand down because that would be seen as a concession to those idiots they've been treating like shit for years.

Westminster has threatened to just dissolve the power sharing govt and rule NI directly from Westminster. Which, if that happens they fear will result in huge instability.

[archibaldcrane]

but yes Sinn Fein has long operated a policy of abstention in Northern Ireland (in the Irish Republic they operate as a normal political party), they stand for seats as independents (as Sinn Fein is not recognized as a political party in Northern Ireland) and when victorious refuse to use those seats to attend the UK Parliament. it is their way of protesting the partition and pushing for unification, and they have been doing so for the past 100 years.

It sure looks like they are "recognized as a political party in NI" as they are listed in all these vote tallies and shit - is there an "official recognition process" or something?

[Cliron]

And yeah, I was talking about Northern Ireland.

It is 20 years behind. It's a welfare country where most people have public jobs. It's a huge cost to Westminster. The bickering between Unionists and Nationalists is insane. They can't get anything done at all.

If it joins the republic, we'll have to pay for it. We'll have to deal with the insane nationalists and the insane unionists.

But, that's not really my business it's more the business for those in NI. If they decide to rejoin the republic, I'd at least like a vote on it, but would accept them without one.

If I had my way though, I'd want them to become their own independent country that is supported by the UK and the EU (think child care payments after divorce).

[archibaldcrane]

So they are the UK's Puerto Rico kinda.

[archibaldcrane]

UKIP getting totally wiped out seems like a big deal here, no? They were tapdancing in the streets after Brexit went through, now they're going to have next-to-no seats whatsoever?

I mean, I suppose if their raison d'etre is complete, whatever, but...