115th United States Congress: Deuces Dropped

[Tyche]

What I am saying here is that you fuckers want to judge this as who won and who didn’t 15 seconds after it’s over. And it ain’t going to work like that. You’ll know who won this in March. The narrative now is fucking pointless come March.

[archibaldcrane]

It's entirely possible they pass nothing. If so, the most important thing is for Americans at large to be paying attention.

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[archibaldcrane]

What I am saying here is that you fuckers want to judge this as who won and who didn’t 15 seconds after it’s over. And it ain’t going to work like that. You’ll know who won this in March. The narrative now is fucking pointless come March.

Is the metric of win or loss dependent on whether Dreamers are legalized or not?

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[Salodin]

That wasn’t always the case. Republicans had a clear narrative win. They were pumping out kids vs illegal immigrant talking points. That’s gone.

I think you have some clear policy inaccuracies and timing inaccuracies in your post that I’m too tired to delve into.

By all means, they cant use CHIP as a tool anymore. Thats great, it really is.

Replacing that is the new notion that dreamers is up front and center, and most Americans will not support a shutdown for them. No matter what bill comes out, as long as there's wording protecting the dreamers then dems will have to vote for it. I'm arguing that the price for saving the dreamers just went up because the threat of shutdown does not scare republicans if they can just put forth any bill and say "we can save dreamers right now but dems won't vote for it".

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[Tyche]

Is the metric of win or loss dependent on whether Dreamers are legalized or not?

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I think it’s a gray area because their are SO MANY variables.

If the senate and house pass a bipartisan bill and the whitehouse vetoes it. Trumps approval rating drops below 35%, dems run up to a massive general ballot lead, is that a win?

[Tyche]

By all means, they cant use CHIP as a tool anymore. Thats great, it really is.

Replacing that is the new notion that dreamers is up front and center, and most Americans will not support a shutdown for them. No matter what bill comes out, as long as there's wording protecting the dreamers then dems will have to vote for it. I'm arguing that the price for saving the dreamers just went up because the threat of shutdown does not scare republicans if they can just put forth any bill and say "we can save dreamers right now but dems won't vote for it".

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Americans won’t support a shutdown, but they’ll blame the Republicans because they’ll have McConnell on record as lying to the American people on a bill that has massive support.

[Deftscythe]

The political ramifications are all well and good, but I'm of the mind that allowing 800,000 people that are Americans in all the ways that matter is an L.

[Tyche]

The political ramifications are all well and good, but I'm of the mind that allowing 800,000 people that are Americans in all the ways that matter is an L.

Dems want two million in the DACA deal, not 800,000. Like I said, a deal is going to have a lot of variables and can go a lot of ways. Winning and losing isn’t clear.

[Tyche]

By all means, they cant use CHIP as a tool anymore. Thats great, it really is.

Replacing that is the new notion that dreamers is up front and center, and most Americans will not support a shutdown for them. No matter what bill comes out, as long as there's wording protecting the dreamers then dems will have to vote for it. I'm arguing that the price for saving the dreamers just went up because the threat of shutdown does not scare republicans if they can just put forth any bill and say "we can save dreamers right now but dems won't vote for it".

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Let me be a bit more clear. Americans won’t support a shutdown over DACA. You’re right. But Americans and most every news and print journal will say that republicans shut it down over DACA if McConnell doesn’t bring it to a vote. Because he clearly said he would. McConnell will have shut the government down. Not democrats. That would be the framing by everyone outside of right wing media.

[Salodin]

Americans won’t support a shutdown, but they’ll blame the Republicans because they’ll have McConnell on record as lying to the American people on a bill that has massive support.

No they dont. They have a turtle saying he'd have a normal process around daca, a process that favors republicans as is. The house didn't even agree to that. On top of that, they have nothing to fear from a shutdown, imo, if they offer protection for dreamers while asking for almost anything they want in concessions, because republicans can just say they offered a bill that protects dreamers and protects our borders but democrats won't sign it. The blame for the inability of passing daca does not automatically fall at Republican feet which is what I think you're trying to say. I just don't agree with that notion.

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[Tyche]

No they dont. They have a turtle saying he'd have a normal process around daca, a process that favors republicans as is. The house didn't even agree to that. On top of that, they have nothing to fear from a shutdown, imo, if they offer protection for dreamers while asking for almost anything they want in concessions, because republicans can just say they offered a bill that protects dreamers and protects our borders but democrats won't sign it. The blame for the inability of passing daca does not automatically fall at Republican feet which is what I think you're trying to say. I just don't agree with that notion.

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Normal process with an up or down vote. That doesn’t favor republicans.

[Tyche]

If McConnell puts DACA to a vote, it’s going to pass the senate. That’s going to happen. The politics in the senate will make that happen. Even a bill conceding everything dems want would pass an up or down vote.

[Tyche]

I think this is really simple and you are really overcomplicating this.

If this goes to regular order and McConnell puts it to a vote, it’s going to pass the senate.

If it goes to regular order and McConnell doesn’t put it to a vote, it will be glaringly fucking obvious that it shut down because Mitch McConnell broke a promise the entire country watched him make.

Now, the house and executive are different stories. And that’s why I’ve said that we won’t know who wins this right now. Will a bill that passes with 80%+ senate support put enough pressure on Ryan to put it to a vote? House politics are weird and I don’t think anyone has a clue how it’ll play out. And there's certainly no way of knowing what trump will do on any given Tuesday.

[Salodin]

I don't think Americans care what changes need to be made to save dreamers because they've been convinced change needs to happen on immigration anyways. Democrats conceded this point when they bought up the now failed graham-cassidy bill. We're starting from a position of weakness and made it worse.

I'm arguing we had a shitty hand to start with, the flop happened this weekend and it wasn't good for us. Now we're on the Turn and the best we can hope for is a 3 of a kind in the end but who the hell stays in the pot when on the Turn the best you can have is a pair? We have no choice but to stay in considering the context, but the table knows were not winning this hand so they're just gonna milk us for all the CHIPs we got because they know they can. Hindsight is 20/20, but the shutdown was useless because we're at exactly where we would have been if we didn't shutdown the gov. No concessions were given, and the only thing we learned was that no one wants another shutdown.

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[Salodin]

I'll concede this really begins and ends with the house. But by all margins republicans should feel embolden after these events go squeeze out even more then what was already provided in graham-cassidy. Does this still happen in the timeline where we didn't shutdown the gov? Idk, but I know what did happen and it gives ammo to republicans who didn't need anymore as it was.

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[archibaldcrane]

What "it" is is pretty important too. McConnell could poison pill the whole thing if he wanted - 20 billion for the wall or massive Visa reductions or all manner of other things paired with Dreamer legalization to make Democrats say no.

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[Salodin]

Is 20 billion for "immigration reform" really a poison pill? I don't think so in this current climate.

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[Tyche]

What "it" is is pretty important too. McConnell could poison pill the whole thing if he wanted - 20 billion for the wall or massive Visa reductions or all manner of other things paired with Dreamer legalization to make Democrats say no.

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I think he would get called out for not negotiating in good faith if McConnell inserts a poison pill. And he promised regular order. A poison pill isn't going into a bipartisan regular order agreement.

[Salodin]

They get called out all the time, why is that different? If it passes with full Republican support in both chambers who are the democrats to say no and shutdown the gov?

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[Tyche]

They get called out all the time, why is that different? If it passes with full Republican support in both chambers who are the democrats to say no and shutdown the gov?

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Republicans won't have the Senate votes, even an up or down vote, for that. McCain is dead. Probably. It won't fly with Flake. Or Collins.