Hurricane Season 2018

[Anoat]

Well that escalated. The morning track now has Michael hitting the FL panhandle as a Cat 2 or Cat 3. RIP me.

[Tymon]

Going to be probably worse than that, the forecasted wind shear (dry air that sucks the air out of a hurricane) is staying west on the mainland and the water is basically a soup bath. Many local forecasters now anticipating a category 4 at peak. Possibly a 5 by some estimates though this would be extraordinary.

My guess is somewhere in the 125-140mph range off the coast with weakening immediately prior to landfall. Considering Hermine decimated the area with TS winds this will be a catastrophe. Panhandle is not prepared for this. Leave if on the coast from Mobile to Tallahassee.

[Cail]

It's crazy how its progressed. A day or 2 ago, they thought it would hit as a TS, maybe a Cat 1

[Salodin]

Hows the red tide up there? Down here in Fort Lauderdale/Deerfield were holding our breath since boynton just got closed for red tide. I cant imagine how disgusting its gonna be after the flooding from a cat 3/4 washing that all into the canals and intercoastals.

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[Tymon]

It's crazy how its progressed. A day or 2 ago, they thought it would hit as a TS, maybe a Cat 1

Forecasting stuff like this walks the razor's edge, because there are a bunch of really volatile factors that make the difference between one extreme and the other.

In this case a bunch of really severe wind shear was supposed to tear the storm apart. Most of the forecasters agreed that if said shear did not materialize we would have a monster storm on our hands.

Lo and behold, the shear didn't materialize, and here we are.

Tropical weather forecasting is extremely interesting (at least to me) and fun to predict. Not fun to watch the destruction though.

[Anoat]

I got my gas this morning and it’s a good thing I did, looks like most of Tallahassee is out already. Gonna have to check out the grocery store after work.

[Tymon]

Get out if you're on the coast. This will not turn out well for you otherwise. Surge is supposed to be over 12 feet in some areas. That is catastrophic.

[Anoat]

Tallahassee is 100 miles or so away from the coast. I’m not worried about storm surge or flooding in my immediate area. The primary concern for me here is the wind knocking down trees and debris and being without power for days. When Hermine came through it was barely a Cat 1 and it knocked out power for a week.

[archibaldcrane]

Tallahassee is 100 miles or so away from the coast.

uh

the center of Tallahassee is about 25 miles from the Gulf of Mexico. https://www.google.com/maps/dir/Tall...999!2d30.13083

[Anoat]

I guess you are right, in my mind I was thinking of the nearest beach worth anything. Regardless, storm surge isn’t an issue this far inland.

[Tymon]

You're going to lose power for a lot longer than a week if Hermine messed you up that bad.

This is looking more and more like a 4 at landfall now.

If your county issues evacuation notices, please get out.

[Salodin]

If you're within 10-15miles of the coast or a large river you should be on the way out already. The flooding is not gonna be fun. If you're higher up in an apartment or something then you'll be contending with power outages. Either way good luck y'all, sorry soflo has had a hurricane shield for a decade and keep sending yall the African rains.

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[Cail]

Michael now a Cat 3

[Salodin]

That was quick...

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[TummieGaruda]

Nadine is the newest Tropical Storm, only sustained winds of 40 mph and just off the coast of Africa moving West-Northwest

[Anoat]

Michael projected to be a high Cat 3/possibly Cat 4. That's enough for me to nope out of here. I'm doing some stuff around the house and then I'm packing a bag up and leaving tonight. Fortunately for me my parents live about an hour and half east of here where I can stay for a couple of days. They will still be in TS warning area, but at least it's not a hurricane.

[Tymon]

Now projected to be a 4 at minimum. Blew up in 60 minutes more than anything I've seen before.



I'd say there's an outside chance at a 5 based on the convection of this one. Really bad situation here.

[Outlaw]

Man that's crazy. What is it's current position?

[Tymon]

Man that's crazy. What is it's current position?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/...so1&product=ir


This updates every 2 minutes if you'd like to track it in real time.


It's blown up beyond anything I've seen, Harvey included. Only thing stopping this from Cat5 is probably the land.

[Anoat]

The water temps in the gulf being so warm and the lack of wind shear has really amped this up. This shit went from a tropical depression to a Cat 4 in like 72 hours, crazy.