Hurricane Season 2018

[Tymon]

Reddit was watching this storm chaser in Port St Joe livestreaming. They got caught in storm surge and had to abandon their truck. The stream kept going for another half hour. Pretty wild.
https://old.reddit.com/r/TropicalWea..._by_the_storm/

They ended up stranded on a roof for a while, then the house collapsed and they had to run for their lives to a shelter. They're relatively safe now. Roller coaster.

[archibaldcrane]

Akiyama's house in Alabama had a tree fall on it, busted through the roof.

[Zetanio]

Seemed like this storm moved pretty goddamn fast.

[Roranora]

we also can't be assed to talk very much about the incoming hurricane when it's flooding Honduras or elsewhere in Central America. we can however drum it up for a week for Florence out on open water in the Atlantic

yes, this picked up wind speed quickly, (as will most all storms over our increasingly warm ocean waters) but that's the norm now. and granted, US landfall trajectory couldn't be known too well until Michael skirted past Cuba, but I feel like we wait too long--until categorization--to plan for storms when we know a mere 30 hours on today's Gulf waters can whip up any tropical storm to a category 3+

[Outlaw]

I have been watching the news periodically today but have not had a chance to post. I hope everyone on BG that was in the path of this thing is safe tonight.

[Tymon]

Seemed like this storm moved pretty goddamn fast.

This is about average actually, you're just jaded by the last 2 really bad continental impacts (Harvey, Florence) being some of the slowest storms on record.

Very very common for storms to race away once on land. 40-50 MPH is not unusual.

[Tymon]

we also can't be assed to talk very much about the incoming hurricane when it's flooding Honduras or elsewhere in Central America. we can however drum it up for a week for Florence out on open water in the Atlantic

yes, this picked up wind speed quickly, (as will most all storms over our increasingly warm ocean waters) but that's the norm now. and granted, US landfall trajectory couldn't be known too well until Michael skirted past Cuba, but I feel like we wait too long--until categorization--to plan for storms when we know a mere 30 hours on today's Gulf waters can whip up any tropical storm to a category 3+

The one thing that was not expected is that the storm continued to intensify until landfall--literally 15 minutes before landfall the pressure dropped significantly.

This is something that hasn't happened in the gulf in like 50 years. Every landfalling Gulf hurricane has weakened dramatically in the 100ish miles off the coast in recent decades. This one was more of an old guard style storm that slammed the coast at peak intensity. See Hurricane Camille for a similar old storm.

[Zetanio]

This is about average actually, you're just jaded by the last 2 really bad continental impacts (Harvey, Florence) being some of the slowest storms on record.

Very very common for storms to race away once on land. 40-50 MPH is not unusual.

I also had no idea wtf was going on until Tuesday when I landed back in the US.

[Roranora]

This is something that hasn't happened in the gulf in like 50 years. Every landfalling Gulf hurricane has weakened dramatically in the 100ish miles off the coast in recent decades. This one was more of an old guard style storm that slammed the coast at peak intensity. See Hurricane Camille for a similar old storm.

Ah yes, I hear extreme weather events are increasing in frequency.

I can only imagine that buffer at the coastline is shrinking and also that we'll have ever more varied storms, some moving at 3 mph and others at 50 mph.

[Tymon]

Ah yes, I hear extreme weather events are increasing in frequency.

I can only imagine that buffer at the coastline is shrinking and also that we'll have ever more varied storms, some moving at 3 mph and others at 50 mph.

Somewhat incorrect, there are no really good statistics that indicate climate change has increased the frequency of extreme tropical weather events. What it does indicate is that the extreme weather events that occur will be more extreme.

The understanding behind Michael's strength is actually believed to be an offshore warm-water eddy that comes and goes on a tide cycle. It just so happens that Michael went over that water at the exact time it was where it needed to be. The buffer is in fact not shrinking, at least not in any measurable amount.

Climate change in regards to tropical development is more of an unknown future monster than a current one. We know that warmer oceans will result in an increase in Accumulate Cyclone Energy (ACE) but there is no substantial deviation from historical norms yet. Key word being yet.

A lot of factors go into the development of a tropical cyclone, many of which are driven by the seasonal jet stream of the earth as a whole--this would be largely (by current understanding) unaffected by climate change. In short, probably not more storms, probably not a longer season for storms. Just way stronger storms.

[Zetanio]

Yeah, that was my understanding as well. We may see slight increases in the season or the number of storms but the actual issue is how fucking big they will be.

[Tymon]

The slight increases would be at the extreme start and extreme end of the tropical cyclone seasons where the jet stream allows for development but the ocean is usually already too cold to support it.

In the northern hemisphere this would be something like May/June and Nov/Dec.

Of course then you would actually have to have a tropical system develop. Simply having warmer water later doesn't mean anything. There would still be down years and still be up years.

[Zetanio]

The slight increases would be at the extreme start and extreme end of the tropical cyclone seasons where the jet stream allows for development but the ocean is usually already too cold to support it.

In the northern hemisphere this would be something like May/June and Nov/Dec.

Of course then you would actually have to have a tropical system develop. Simply having warmer water later doesn't mean anything. There would still be down years and still be up years.

Gotta bless those rains down in Africa, ya know?

[archibaldcrane]

Yeah, that was my understanding as well. We may see slight increases in the season or the number of storms but the actual issue is how fucking big they will be.

And also that over the decades we've built way more stuff and put way more people in southeastern coastal areas for hurricanes to destroy.

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[Zetanio]

yeah, my mom and grandma told me about Camille and Betsy. While they were fucking terrible, there wasn't much built in the way. It just wiped out what little was there.

[Anoat]

I’ve returned home, very lucky. No damage to my apartment but the front yard is a mess with lots of limbs down. Luckily no trees or power lines down in my immediate area, but Tally took a small hit. 100k+ without power currently including me. It’s hard to complain about it when parts of Panama City and Mexico Beach got literally wiped off the face of the earth.

[Roranora]

Glad to hear your place is okay Anoat

[archibaldcrane]

RIP Akiyama's roof.

[Day]

Is there a gofundme or something we can do to help them?

[Zetanio]

I'm actively sending thoughts and pr-

Ya know what, probably not the right time for it.

That fucking sucks, if there's anything we can actually do please let us know.