Predisent Donald J. Trump: Episode VII: Space Force Awakens | Keep Trumpy Bear Great

[Daydreamer]

The only reason I'm holding out any hope is that Doug Jones actually won. I'm from Alabama but moved out years ago, and I'm still surprised he actually pulled it off.

[Tymon]

I'm in complete agreement with this. I know the voter registration day recently was a massive success at 800,000 signups vs 150,000 in the 2014 midterms, but I'm not convinced. I will not at all be surprised if the house stays red.

Also worth taking into consideration the mobilization of the right. Assuming that the 650,000 increase in registrations is exclusively progressive democrats is ludicrous (not implying you are of course)

I still favor the outcome of Democrats taking the House, but I think any of the recent arguments towards a blue Senate shift are completely out of this world.

[Daydreamer]

Also worth taking into consideration the mobilization of the right. Assuming that the 650,000 increase in registrations is exclusively progressive democrats is ludicrous (not implying you are of course)

I still favor the outcome of Democrats taking the House, but I think any of the recent arguments towards a blue Senate shift are completely out of this world.

I do think a lot of the increased registration is due to democrat activism, but the republican party is definitely also causing an increase. I haven't seen any numbers yet on how many of the 800,000 are for which party though so I really don't know. I don't trust basically any social media outlet because as others have said, it's all echo chambers. All I can say is that I purposely don't delete people on facebook for any political views just so I don't create an echo chamber, and I have noticed a large drop off of 'normal' republican friends posting basically anything political with the only ones who still post being the extreme end of my right leaning friends, so who knows.

[Tymon]

There won't be any accurate numbers on the party choice of the new registrants. You don't have to pick a party when you register to vote. I'm not even sure if it's an option. Registering as a member of a political party is an entirely separate, and wholly optional, process.

You are probably correct though, if I had to guess it is probably 70/30 Dem/GOP

[Tyrath]

The only reason I'm holding out any hope is that Doug Jones actually won. I'm from Alabama but moved out years ago, and I'm still surprised he actually pulled it off.

You take hope from that. I do the opposite. It's pathetic how slim the margin for him beating a pedophile was.

[Tyrath]

There won't be any accurate numbers on the party choice of the new registrants. You don't have to pick a party when you register to vote. I'm not even sure if it's an option. Registering as a member of a political party is an entirely separate, and wholly optional, process.

This might vary state by state but here you usually register with a party or as independent when you register.

[archibaldcrane]

Quinnipiac has Democrats at a +7 advantage on the generic ballot, gerrymandering means that anything less that +8 is highly questionable for Democrats chances and ideally +10 or more.

The 538 classic model says that over +5.6 means the odds of taking the House are in Dems favor. It's at 8.1 now.

[Daydreamer]

You take hope from that. I do the opposite. It's pathetic how slim the margin for him beating a pedophile was.

I take hope from that simply because I'm from there and thought "no way these people won't vote for the pedophile" because that's how poorly I think of most of the people I know in that state. The fact that Jones managed to win given the culture in Alabama said a lot to me about how the possibility of hope.

[archibaldcrane]

In the Senate the Dems have to win all the races they are favored in and all 3 of the "tossups" (by 538's model) - including North Dakota - to get to 51. If they lose any of those, they'd need either Texas or Tennessee.

[Rooney]

Texas is currently a possibility, but Cruz really hasn't started campaigning yet.

[Tymon]

I'm from TN and I'm like 80% sure Bredesen is winning here. He was our most popular governor ever, the Democrat example of Charlie Baker. He destroyed Blackburn in the debate and her numbers are falling every day. He will dominate in the cities.

[Daydreamer]

Texas is currently a possibility, but Cruz really hasn't started campaigning yet.

This is another one I don't believe has a chance. I moved from Alabama to Texas and while Beto has a lot of push here, I have no faith in most of this state.

[Zealot]

Yeah well as we were speaking the House model from Fivethirtyeight dropped Democratic chances from 77.5% to under 75%. Two days ago it was 81%.

I'm getting a real October 2016 vibe right now.

[Salodin]

In the Senate the Dems have to win all the races they are favored in and all 3 of the "tossups" (by 538's model) - including North Dakota - to get to 51. If they lose any of those, they'd need either Texas or Tennessee.

The dem is in the lead in TN.

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[6souls]

Trump Declares that Right Now is a Scary Time for Young Men

Asked about young women, the president said, however: "Women are doing great."

"It's a very scary time for young men in America when you can be guilty of something that you may not be guilty of," Mr Trump told reporters. "This is a very difficult time."

"You could be somebody that was perfect your entire life and somebody could accuse you of something - doesn't necessarily have to be a woman - but somebody could accuse you of something and you're automatically guilty."

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-45722404

[6souls]

The US has Threatened to Attack Russia over a Newly Developed, but Banned Under a Treaty, Missile Type

The threat from a senior US diplomat to "take out" Russian missiles that Washington believes are in breach of an important Cold War arms control treaty looks set to cause additional tensions with Moscow, just ahead of a meeting of Nato defence ministers that opens in Brussels on Wednesday.

The US ambassador to Nato, Kay Bailey Hutchison, was speaking ahead of that meeting and brought up once again Washington's contention that Russia is in breach of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) agreement of 1987.

This treaty banned a whole category of weapons: ground-launched medium-range missiles, capable of striking targets at distances between 500 and 5,500km (310-3,100 miles).

Now, the Americans insist, despite Russian denials, that Moscow has a new medium-range missile in its inventory - the Novator 9M729 - known to Nato as the SSC-8.

This would enable Russia to launch a nuclear strike at Nato countries at very short notice.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-45723952

A Chinese Warship Forced a US Destroyer to Change Course After the Warship Came Within 45 Yards on a Collision Course with the Destroyer
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-45718000

[Day]

The two packages suspected of containing ricin were addressed to Defense Secretary Mattis and the Navy’s top officer, Admiral John Richardson.
Initial tests were positive for ricin. FBI currently making final determination.

https://twitter.com/LucasFoxNews/sta...74111544393728

wtf

[archibaldcrane]

The dem is in the lead in TN.

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https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...ate/tennessee/

[Salodin]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...ate/tennessee/

CNN was saying otherwise this morning /shrug

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[Kaslo]

Trump Declares that Right Now is a Scary Time for Young Men

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-45722404

It's sad that young men finally have to feel like black men.