2018-2019 NHL Regular Season Thread: Not Suck Back 2 Back

[Cail]

Trades!

Toronto receives: Jake Muzzin
Los Angeles receives: Carl Grundstrom, rights to Sean Durzi, and Toronto's 2019 1st rd pick

Dallas receives: Jamie Oleksiak
Pittsburgh receives: 2019 4th (MIN's pick)

The 2nd trade is the exact trade made in 2017 in reverse

[synistar]

Let the blow up of the Kings begin wheeee!!!

[bluefan]

Jets need Buff back and another Stastny like last year. Duchene was an interesting name to throw around...

[Vaspinne]

A good trade for the Leafs in the short-term. But man oh man, even with the cap going up next season, with $60mil already taken up, only 13 roster players signed and needing to get Matthews (probably around McDavid numbers here) and Marner (probably around Draisaitl numbers, so like $20mil combined for these 2 alone) both signed to extensions, they are gonna be in for quite the off-season.

Even if they just plug the roster with ELC players, they're only going to have space for like 3 of them lol, and having a roster of 18 players (also needing a back-up goalie too) just ain't gonna cut it obviously. I'm really really curious to see how they handle it going forward and whether they end up trading one of their 3 big youngsters (obviously not Matthews, but I could see both Marner or Nylander getting some attention). Could try to trade away Kadri too or maybe Marleau gifts the organization by choosing to retire and pass on like $4mil lol, but with that NMC of his, he's not getting bought out or traded unless it's on his terms.

Given the Nylander signing fiasco, his big cap hit, his shitty year so far, I think Marner or Kadri (or maybe both) might be the more obvious moves out of town. Of course, that is if no one offer sheets Marner or Matthews (or Marner first, letting Toronto match and then fucking them over by offer sheet'ing Matthews right after lol)

[bluefan]

Another garbage game. Boston going to eat them alive tomorrow.

[Vaspinne]

Another garbage game. Boston going to eat them alive tomorrow.

I remember when you were fighting for tops in the West. And now you're 7 points behind us. Feels great.

[NynJa]

A good trade for the Leafs in the short-term. But man oh man, even with the cap going up next season, with $60mil already taken up, only 13 roster players signed and needing to get Matthews (probably around McDavid numbers here) and Marner (probably around Draisaitl numbers, so like $20mil combined for these 2 alone) both signed to extensions, they are gonna be in for quite the off-season.

Dont forget to add whatever performance bonus carryover they cant fit under this years cap. According to capfriendly, they have 4 mil in cap space left, and a max of 5.4m in performance bonuses. AND I think they have to be cap compliant by the time the season starts, meaning Horton's 5.3m counts towards the cap.

[bluefan]

I remember when you were fighting for tops in the West. And now you're 7 points behind us. Feels great.

This is what grinds my gear. A horde of other Jets fan thinks the team is level with Calgary or Tampa. Can't take off their rose tinted glasses since before Christmas. Putrid all around game since then, no matter their last ten record.

Jets good. Not great, good.

[Vaspinne]

Dont forget to add whatever performance bonus carryover they cant fit under this years cap. According to capfriendly, they have 4 mil in cap space left, and a max of 5.4m in performance bonuses. AND I think they have to be cap compliant by the time the season starts, meaning Horton's 5.3m counts towards the cap.

I had a guy on twitter rebuke what I wrote because he said Horton's hit was coming off the cap and they wouldn't lose any core players lol

[Obsidian]

A good trade for the Leafs in the short-term. But man oh man, even with the cap going up next season, with $60mil already taken up, only 13 roster players signed and needing to get Matthews (probably around McDavid numbers here) and Marner (probably around Draisaitl numbers, so like $20mil combined for these 2 alone) both signed to extensions, they are gonna be in for quite the off-season.

Even if they just plug the roster with ELC players, they're only going to have space for like 3 of them lol, and having a roster of 18 players (also needing a back-up goalie too) just ain't gonna cut it obviously. I'm really really curious to see how they handle it going forward and whether they end up trading one of their 3 big youngsters (obviously not Matthews, but I could see both Marner or Nylander getting some attention). Could try to trade away Kadri too or maybe Marleau gifts the organization by choosing to retire and pass on like $4mil lol, but with that NMC of his, he's not getting bought out or traded unless it's on his terms.

Given the Nylander signing fiasco, his big cap hit, his shitty year so far, I think Marner or Kadri (or maybe both) might be the more obvious moves out of town. Of course, that is if no one offer sheets Marner or Matthews (or Marner first, letting Toronto match and then fucking them over by offer sheet'ing Matthews right after lol)

"Leafs in cap trouble. Trade one of the best contracts on the team in Kadri, or one of the best players in Marner."

Nah fam, nah. Muzzin is a good acquisition. Good player, good cap hit, signed through next season. Leafs lost a prospect at a position they're deep at, and a pick that will be near the end of the first round. Muzzin makes less than Gardiner, who will be gone. Hainsey will be gone and replaced by Holl, Rosen or Borgman.

[Vaspinne]

You're missing the point that you won't have the financial cap space to actually ice a full hockey team if every player gets the money they deserve and you keep them all.

I'm not making my points blindly. Everything I wrote was already taking into account that Gardiner and Hainsey will both be gone. And me suggesting that you'd lose your best contract or one of your best players was based on the fact that you can't keep them all and expect to ice 20 players in a game. Hell, you'd struggle to have a roster of even 18 players even if you filled the rest of the holes with players who are getting paid league minimum.

And even if by some miracle you do manage to make that happen, you'd have 2 lines of good players, 3 decent defensemen and only 1 decent goalie, the rest being plugs. So you'd basically be Chicago 3.0, or Edmonton 2.0, or etc, etc. You could maybe be successful in the regular season, but in the playoffs where depth really REALLY fucking matters, you'd have no chance.

[NynJa]

"Leafs in cap trouble. Trade one of the best contracts on the team in Kadri, or one of the best players in Marner."

Nah fam, nah. Muzzin is a good acquisition. Good player, good cap hit, signed through next season. Leafs lost a prospect at a position they're deep at, and a pick that will be near the end of the first round. Muzzin makes less than Gardiner, who will be gone. Hainsey will be gone and replaced by Holl, Rosen or Borgman.

Your cap space, as of today, for next season is 19 mil, and that presumes Hainsey and Gardiner walk, and you dont have any overage from performance bonuses of this year. You're not gaining any cap space for next season by losing players who are not signed for next season.

As it stands right now, as of today, here is your 2019 lineup based on your 2018 roster:
Marleau-Tavares-Nylander
Hyman-Kadri-Brown
???-Gauthier-???
???-???-???

Reilly-Zaitsev
Muzzin-Dermott
???-???

Andersen
???

You have 19 mil in cap space (once again, might be less depending on those performance bonuses), which Marner and Matthews will take all of. If you get Matthews at 11.5 and Marner at 7.5 (thats 19), you're getting a hell of a fuckin deal, especially on Marner. You're now out of cap space, you need a backup goalie, two defensemen and four forwards, and you need 1-2 players riding pine. Even if you fill those holes with AHL players on ELC's, thats still ~800k per player. You dont have the 5.6 mil in cap space needed to get those SEVEN players into your lineup.

AND, if I'm right about needing to be cap compliant before any players go on LTIR, you have to factor in Horton's 5.3 mil cap hit.

[Vaspinne]

We're not ragging on you because we hate the Leafs Obs (which obviously Nynja and I both do lol). We're looking at this factually. Pretty sure we did this same shit with Edmonton and Chicago in the past too.

Honestly, enjoy this season. I really think Muzzin is a great add and will help you defensively (which was also something heavily critiqued earlier) and with the pieces you already have you're bound to have a solid season (albeit, getting past Tampa in the playoffs is another thing all together). But going into next season, there has to be a couple BIG personnel changes because mathematically your team is completely fucked otherwise.

[Obsidian]

I don't think anyone's ragging on me or them, I just think the idea that if the Leafs are in a cap crunch, the best solution is to dump the most cost-effective contract on the team (aside from Rielly's) is ridiculous.

One of Brown or Hyman is going to get moved, they may suck it up and trade some picks to move Marleau's contract which is the one really handcuffing them. No one is offer-sheeting either of Matthews or Marner, because any team that would want to can't afford to, and any team that could afford it would be retarded to surrender all those picks. The same people who think the Leafs are cap-fucked can't also claim Marner is going to get offer-sheeted because that's an automatic get-out-of-jail-free card for the Leafs.

Yes, there will be roster turnover. That's the cost of having too many good players to pay. But you don't make those sacrifices to turn around and dump the players you're making those sacrifices for in the first place.

Edit: Also almost positive performance bonuses apply to this season, not next, and that the deadline for cap compliance is the first day of the season, by which point Horton's contract is on LTIR. This happened a season or two ago with Lupul, I can't remember how it went.

[NynJa]

Theres a massive difference between cap crunch and "you're fucked":

cap crunch: see Chicago
"you're fucked": Having zero cap space and 7 lineup spots vacant. SEVEN

Edit: Also almost positive performance bonuses apply to this season, not next

They do, however what cant be fit under the current seasons cap will carry over.

that the deadline for cap compliance is the first day of the season

I was iffy on this one, I'm sure I read theres some issue about keeping "retired" players on the books though, and that was it.

[NynJa]

This is you looking at your 2019 lineup missing Matthews, Marner, 3 forwards, 2 defensemen, a backup goalie, 1+ players riding pine and 19 mil in cap space (+3.5 mil, its supposed to go up to 83?)

[NynJa]

Ok so i overlooked a few deets:
1-the cap is speculated to go up 3.5 mil, so that 19 becomes 22.5.
2-hortons 5.3 isnt factored in to that, so now thats 27.8.

Its not as bad of a cap crunch, but still bad.

[Cail]

Austin Watson (NSH) suspended indefinitely. Placed in stage 2 of the substance abuse program

[bluefan]

Jets continue the garbage train. Debating whether it's worth it tonight or just go into hibernation with the current weather...

[bluefan]

This team is done. They will literally just limp into the playoffs either as Central third or WC. Garbage first period again.