2018 Midterms: Gerrymandering to Victory b/w Blue Wave, Red Pill

[Salodin]

Florida Senate race going to a manual recount. The rest are done it seems, so peace out Gillum.

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[Gredival]

Karen Tumulty, Columnist for Politics at The Washington Post:

Though Republicans love to caricature Pelosi as a dippy liberal, she proved that she is, at her core, a political pragmatist. One of her first acts was to disappoint the fervent Democratic base with an announcement in 2006 that Democrats would “absolutely not” cut off funding for the Iraq War: “As long as our troops are in harm’s way, Democrats will be there to support them.”

Her street-wise political instincts, honed from her childhood as the daughter of a Baltimore mayor, helped lay the groundwork for the party’s spectacularly successful performance two years later.

As she heads into 2020 with a small and fragile majority, Pelosi understands, and is equipped to deal with, tensions within her party. She can balance the passions of the hard left, and with the caution needed to protect more moderate members whose election in swing districts put the party back in power.

Count on Pelosi to put the brakes on premature calls for Trump’s impeachment, and to press the mute button on more radical proposals such as abolishing Immigration and Customs Enforcement. At the same time, she can muster the votes to bring the Republicans’ legislative agenda to a halt.

Pelosi’s biggest liabilities — her negative poll numbers, the clumsy comments she is prone to making — will become less of a factor. The front-facing image of the Democratic Party will be its large crop of presidential contenders. Pelosi can focus on the inside game, at which she excels.

The speaker-in-waiting has indicated she is not in this for the long haul. She has recently begun describing herself as a “transitional figure,” and spoken longingly of writing books and spending more time with her grandchildren.

https://bangordailynews.com/2018/11/...-next-speaker/

[Byrthnoth]

I don't agree that the 2020 candidates will prevent Trump from using her as a bumbling political foil. Like Crooked Hillary, hating on Pelosi is one of his applause lines. I bet he would keep going back to it even if she wasn't speaker (or in politics.)

[Gredival]

I don't agree that the 2020 candidates will prevent Trump from using her as a bumbling political foil. Like Crooked Hillary, hating on Pelosi is one of his applause lines. I bet he would keep going back to it even if she wasn't speaker (or in politics.)

I mean that's true but is it going to sway anyone? The people who are motivated by hatred of Pelosi are nearly 1:1 with MAGA chuds that will be energized to vote just because Trump is running. I think it's rather easy for Harris, Booker, or whoever to say that this election is me vs. Donald not Nancy vs. Donald.

[Byrthnoth]

Trump doesn't run much of a motivation game. It is a demotivation game. He unreasonably beats Nancy with the short end of the stick for two years and she responds poorly while also accomplishing nothing (divided government), demotivating Democratic voters. At least if there is a clever riposte then the libs might not feel "owned," as it were. Nancy is not going to give us that.

As far as the suggestion that 2020 Democrat candidates will be able to redirect attention from a single target (Nancy) to themselves (like 20 people,) I find it unlikely. Both Trump and the media have little reason to care about them until they get the nomination, and even then Hillary showed it is possible to avoid having anyone listen to you.

[Salodin]

You're acting like they arent going to do the exact same thing to any replacement for Pelosi.

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[Byrthnoth]

A Pelosi replacement doesn't have to like the taste of her own feet so much.

Hell, nothing says that Speaker of the House even needs to be an elected official. Make it Beto.

[Zealot]

Or Stacy Abrams, or the ghost of Fred Rogers.

[Salodin]

Hand count in broward is done already ahead of schedule. It was done so fast because all those no votes in the Senate truly were bad ballot design and not tabulation errors. People thought they'd be home by midnight, turns out they were home for lunch.

Get rekted.

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[Zealot]

Stacy Abrams appears to have conceded in Georgia.

[Byrthnoth]

Hand count in broward is done already ahead of schedule. It was done so fast because all those no votes in the Senate truly were bad ballot design and not tabulation errors. People thought they'd be home by midnight, turns out they were home for lunch.

Get rekted.

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LMAO, oh Florida

At least it will sink into the sea because of shitty ballot design by low level officials in its own Democratic counties.

[Salodin]

LMAO, oh Florida

At least it will sink into the sea because of shitty ballot design by low level officials in its own Democratic counties.

This is what kills me. The parts of the state most affected by Republican inaction are blue counties where they apparently arent incentivized to get their shit together. I'm ready to move back to NY or out to Cali, but I'd rather deal with hurricanes than snow or fire.

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[BaneTheBrawler]

come to MN. we've got our shit together.

[synistar]

This is what kills me. The parts of the state most affected by Republican inaction are blue counties where they apparently arent incentivized to get their shit together. I'm ready to move back to NY or out to Cali, but I'd rather deal with hurricanes than snow or fire.

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Don't forget the mudslides that happen after the fire burned everything. Also taxes.

[Gredival]

So analyzing the midterms on a deeper level, the Trump effect is bidirectional.

Trump had a pretty good batting record in Senate and Governor races for states he won in 2016, showing that he can turn out his racist base. His only loss in that respect was vs. Manchin in WV.

However the Dem House win was driven primarily by increased blue engagement for a midterm and the inability for Republicans to hold onto red suburban voters (i.e. the people Chuck Schumer thought would vote for Hillary in 2016)

[Quicklet]

His only loss in that respect was vs. Manchin in WV.

Don't forget Tester in MT. Trump wanted him gone bad for getting rid of Dr. Ronnie, and now he gets to live with him being in the Senate for however long he has left as president.

[Gredival]

Yeah you're right.

[Tyche]

Trump won Michigan and Wisconsin. Dems won Senate and governors races there. Also PA.

[Tyche]

Arizona. Ohio. GOP won governors races, but dens won senate races.

[Andalusian girls]

yehh I dunno what Red Dead Gredemption's on about Repubs ate losses throughout states Trump won.