2018 Midterms: Gerrymandering to Victory b/w Blue Wave, Red Pill

[Pirian]

Trump won Michigan and Wisconsin. Dems won Senate and governors races there. Also PA.

Anecdotal, but I have a lot of in-laws in rural NE PA that voted Trump in 2016 but have publicly stated either their disapproval or regret. Not all, but a sizable portion.

[Salodin]

yehh I dunno what Red Dead Gredemption's on about Repubs ate losses throughout states Trump won.

+1

[Moss]

Anecdotal, but I have a lot of in-laws in rural NE PA that voted Trump in 2016 but have publicly stated either their disapproval or regret. Not all, but a sizable portion.

Good to hear. Even the "reasonable" trump voters I know STILL say "but Hillary would be worse." Sigh.

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[Byrthnoth]

I haven't talked to my NE relatives since about six months after the election. No idea how they are taking it, but two of the three people who voted Democrat are getting much more outspoken on the bookface. The last one isn't on bookface.

The rest, who I presume still support Trump, don't post anything.

[mallister]

Yeah none of my redneck kin have shown any sign of buyer's remorse. Neither the Gary Johnson or Trump voters.

[Gredival]

yehh I dunno what Red Dead Gredemption's on about Repubs ate losses throughout states Trump won.

Catching up on reading, and saw this (important parts bolded)

Democrats sweeping Republicans out of power in the House and expanding their hold on the Senate -- illustrated the rewards and limitations of his all-base, all-the-time strategy. His nearly a dozen rallies in the final days of the campaign ensured his hardline immigration message would dominate, even if Republican candidates in key areas were running away from just that. "He's like Journey who won't stop playing "Don't Stop Believing,'" said a top Republican operative working on House races. "He only plays the same song to his base, every tweet is basically the same, he only trusts what got him the presidency in unique circumstances in 2016." This source added: "And it really, really hurt us when you don't have the most unlikeable person ever to run for president against him," referencing Hillary Clinton in 2016. But on the Senate side, Trump appeared to be a boon to Republicans running to unseat Democratic incumbents in states he won in 2016. "It could have been a lot worse and by all indications, it should have been a lot worse," said Rick Gorka, deputy communications director in at the Republican National Committee. "But what we have is a pretty typical night in the House and a very not typical night in the Senate where we are knocking off incumbents." Over the final week of the campaign, Trump headlined 11 rallies in eight states. As the dust settles on Tuesday night's contests, Trump's winning percentage in statewide races in those states was overwhelmingly positive. The president traveled to Florida, Indiana and Missouri twice in the final week, all states where Republicans notched high profile wins. Republican Ron DeSantis defeated Democratic mayor Andrew Gillum in the Florida gubernatorial contest, while Gov. Rick Scott currently leads Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson in the Senate contest. And the Republicans in Indiana and Missouri both ousted Democratic Senate incumbents. Trump also traveled to Tennessee, where Republican Rep. Marsha Blackburn trounced Democrat Phil Bredesen and Georgia where Republican Brian Kemp is leading Democrat Stacey Abrams in the state's gubernatorial contest. Trump's only clear losses in top state-wide races were in West Virginia, where the President was unable to propel Republican Patrick Morrisey, a candidate even Republicans believed was underwhelming, past Democrat Joe Manchin, and Montana, where Democrat incumbent Sen. Jon Tester defeated Republican Matt Rosendale.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/08/polit...erm-elections/

I initially skimmed the qualification that it wasn't just states he won but states he won and held rallies at. Probably selective campaigning contributed.

[Andalusian girls]

[Niiro]

Where does his cheek end and his neck begin.

[Andalusian girls]

i carry your cheek with me(i carry it in
my neck)

[archibaldcrane]

There isn't a single Republican house member in the entirety of New England or Orange County.

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[Byrthnoth]

My breath is not held, but Dems are apparently playing for keeps in Mississippi: https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...=.334735b31795

What is this year even?

[archibaldcrane]

My breath is not held, but Dems are apparently playing for keeps in Mississippi: https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...=.334735b31795

What is this year even?

Remember that Trump won Alabama by 28 and Doug Jones still won a special election Senate seat.

He only won Mississippi by 18. The Republican isn't a pedo but she's sure made horrible comments about lynching.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&sour...42594639448996

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[Byrthnoth]

I know the backstory with her (you should watch her no-apologies apology press briefing with the governor if you haven't), but Mississippi is really tough... I don't think the overt racism of the candidate will be as much of a demotivator for Republicans there as a motivator.

[Gredival]

Does it matter if he's a dead man walking in 2020 and the victory doesn't push the Senate margin to possible 51?

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[archibaldcrane]

Does it matter if he's a dead man walking in 2020 and the victory doesn't push the Senate margin to possible 51?

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Does it really matter that Trump pulled Sessions from a Senate seat in Alabama if his Republican successor is sure to win the special election?

Trump won Montana by 21.5% (more than Mississippi) in 2016, and Tester is still very much alive and walking.

He won West Virginia by 42% and wouldn't you know it they just re-elected a Dem Senator!

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[Byrthnoth]

He's making a strategic point rather than a moral victory point.

I would say that it matters for PR reasons. The same way that Doug Jones' victory in Alabama probably made people take Beto and Stacey Abrams more seriously, a victory here would potentially further invigorate a Democratic base in the red hinterlands. This might not win us races (like Beto's or Stacey's), but it weakens the "Democrats are the party of the urban and the educated" narrative.

Democrats are already the democratic party, but Republicans are giving up a ton of ground on every moral front and I think Democrats can reasonably lay claim to being the patriotic party too. You need a geographically broad base for that.

Also, he'd be the first black senator from Mississippi since we abandoned reconstruction because of a bad presidential election.

[Cail]

Bill Nelson has conceded to Rick Scott

[Gredival]

Does it really matter that Trump pulled Sessions from a Senate seat in Alabama if his Republican successor is sure to win the special election?

Trump won Montana by 21.5% (more than Mississippi) in 2016, and Tester is still very much alive and walking.

He won West Virginia by 42% and wouldn't you know it they just re-elected a Dem Senator!

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Except the Jones' seat was important because it helped to increase the chance to capture the Senate in 2018 by reducing the margin. This seat is much less important because not only do we not hold it in 2020 (we don't hold Jones' either) and there's relatively little gains to be had form now until 2020.

[archibaldcrane]

Why is Mississippi impossible to hold but Montana and West Virginia aren't?

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[Byrthnoth]

West VA is honestly a mystery to me.