2018 Midterms: Gerrymandering to Victory b/w Blue Wave, Red Pill

[Koyangi]

Manchin is kind of like a Repub in Dems clothing. He has stated multiple times that he will vote on things he feels good with and knows his constituents would benefit from, even if it's a bill introduced by Republicans. He's stated he doesn't align with the Democrats on everything just for the sake of align with Dems always and resist the Repubs always; example: he voted for Gorsuch and Kavanaugh. The ONLY true benefit he does explicitly provide is helping the Dems achieve a "majority" if they can flip 5+ seats in 2020.

[Byrthnoth]

Yeah, but only kind of : https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...e-manchin-iii/

That's a 30 point gap between how you'd expect him to vote based on Trump's margin in his state and how he actually does vote. ACA, Net Neutrality, several nominations, Clean Air Act (I think?), etc. There are some others with a "Trump Margin" greater than his (like Jon Tester, who recently won reelection) and a more liberal voting record, but none from states that Trump won by 42%. 42% is "you can't find anyone who admits to not-voting for Trump" numbers. It is Trump's 2nd highest margin of victory (beaten only by Wyoming.)

Manchin looks like he intentionally votes against the Democratic base's interests in cases when he thinks it does the least harm, his hidden liberal base will care the least, and rest of the country's libs will be triggered the most. It is how he regularly earns media coverage of people talking about how he bucks the Democratic party. The Kavanaugh vote might well have won him the election just for all the media coverage he got about coastal liberals being disappointed in him.

[arus2001]

With half my family in WV and being able to get there in a short car ride myself, I'll comfortably assert Manchin would've been fucked if he went No on angry beer boy. So, I'd definitely chalk it up to one of those instances of him valuing career over doing the right thing, which is all the more reason to hope he gets primaried or retires next run. But I'm also staunchly zero compromise with GOP at present, so...

[Byrthnoth]

In a Trump +40 state, there is no multicultural, 21st century values voting plurality to elect a senator better than him. I am just thankful that we have him as often as we do.

[arus2001]

With how poorly the state does in pretty much everything beside WVU being a party school, it's almost like that deep redding isn't workin' out.

[Gredival]

It's funny that he was transparent on the fact he would flip if Collins did because he wouldn't be the deciding yes.

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[Andalusian girls]

West VA is honestly a mystery to me.

people I think too often unwaveringly project the national onto the regional. West Virginia is conservative and rural but for decades it was a stronghold of blue dog Democrats and featured two of the party's most prominent legislators in Byrd and Rockefeller. Capito was actually the first Republican senator the state had elected since the 1950s(!), and not only was their previous governor a Democrat their current governor won his election as a Democrat before switching to the Republican Party while in office.

in nationals where one candidate says we will defend your guns and your coal and your God to the death, and the other talks down to you about bitterly clinging to guns and God and racism, it's no contest. but locally there's still play in the state for conservative Democrats. indeed as demonstrated the state's legacy is much more aligned with conservative Democrats than it is with Republicans, though that is changing as both parties become more ideologically rigid.

[Fiye]

https://twitter.com/bobstein_ft/stat...52750509715457

This is a ratio to watch.

[Zealot]

I find that tweet inoffensive lacking greater context, he may be curious to see if it's risen.

[zoobernut]

https://twitter.com/bobstein_ft/stat...52750509715457

This is a ratio to watch.

This reply made me laugh.

The racism and sexism isn't even thinly veiled here. Tr*mp's comb-over provides more coverage.

[Byrthnoth]

people I think too often unwaveringly project the national onto the regional. West Virginia is conservative and rural but for decades it was a stronghold of blue dog Democrats and featured two of the party's most prominent legislators in Byrd and Rockefeller. Capito was actually the first Republican senator the state had elected since the 1950s(!), and not only was their previous governor a Democrat their current governor won his election as a Democrat before switching to the Republican Party while in office.

in nationals where one candidate says we will defend your guns and your coal and your God to the death, and the other talks down to you about bitterly clinging to guns and God and racism, it's no contest. but locally there's still play in the state for conservative Democrats. indeed as demonstrated the state's legacy is much more aligned with conservative Democrats than it is with Republicans, though that is changing as both parties become more ideologically rigid.

So WVa hasn't realized that Democrats aren't the party of racism anymore?

[Karbuncle]

Democrats aren't the party of racism anymore?

Its why I always loved you man you're good with the jokes. the ism remains the colors changed.

At least according to the whats being blasted on news media outlets because if theres anything we should all agree on its that the dumbest minority of people get the loudest voices.

[Zealot]

I missed exactly where it came from but somewhere one of the outstanding House races was called for a Democrat unexpectedly because 538's tracker now has them at a projected +40 seats.

[Obiron]

I missed exactly where it came from but somewhere one of the outstanding House races was called for a Democrat unexpectedly because 538's tracker now has them at a projected +40 seats.

Could be Utah? McAdams (D) was in the lead up until last Friday, when Love (R) took the lead. As of yesterday, McAdams retook the lead, and there shouldn't be enough remaining votes to change that. McAdams announced his victory last night, although it's not official yet.

[Zealot]

That might be it, I know the Love race was going back and forth for awhile even after Trump declared she lost.

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[Byrthnoth]

Could be Cali. There was a house race with 30k outstanding ballots and a margin of 2k, but next update on it was supposed to be Wednesday.

[synistar]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...close-to-call/

UPDATE (Nov. 19, 11:40 p.m., 2018): We’ve updated the text below with the latest news and data. We’ve also removed the Arizona U.S. Senate race,1 California 10th District, California 39th District,2 California 45th District, California 48th District, California 49th District, Georgia 6th District,3 Maine 2nd District,4 New Jersey 3rd District,5 New York 22nd District6 and Washington 8th District,7 which have been called for Democrats, and the Florida U.S. Senate race,8 Minnesota 1st District,9 North Carolina 9th District,10 Texas 23rd District,11 Florida governor12 and Georgia governor,13 which have been called for Republicans. Our original write-ups on those races can be found in the footnotes.

Ones still too close to call are CA-21, GA-7, NM-2, NY-27, and UT-4

[archibaldcrane]

CA-21 Valadao v Cox and UT-4 Mia Love vs some Dem are looking like the Dems will win both. Valadao still has the lead though.

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[archibaldcrane]

2018 was the largest margin of votes between parties in US midterm House elections history.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/statu...87965498679296

[Niiro]

Isn't that considerably less impressive when you consider the difference in voting population between '74 and now.