Iran - It's Not Just Hostages and Arms Deals Anymore

[Dimmauk]

Something something Obama's Fault?

Did Obama sell them the missiles?

[Kaslo]

Did Obama sell them the missiles?

But but something something sanctions money something missles.

[6souls]

[BerenTebogo]

Historic poll options

[Tarage]

I'm... pleasantly surprised at the fact that Iran both seems to have attacked in such a way that didn't kill anyone (Airplane issues non-withstanding that's some other level of fuck) and that Trump et al took the "Look man we don't want war just let us have this" and didn't fuck it up.

Let's hope 2020 can calm the fuck down already.

[Salodin]

I'm... pleasantly surprised at the fact that Iran both seems to have attacked in such a way that didn't kill anyone (Airplane issues non-withstanding that's some other level of fuck) and that Trump et al took the "Look man we don't want war just let us have this" and didn't fuck it up.

Let's hope 2020 can calm the fuck down already.

Lol, the impeachment trial hasnt started yet

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[Andalusian girls]

The BBC had an article way before Solemani was killed that Iran was meddling against Trump already. They are defensively realist, not revisionist like Russia and China. They have no expansionist intentions. They are best served by stability and a reliable negotiating partner.

they are not explicitly revanchist as is Russia nor seeking to usurp superpower status as is China, but their foreign policy is in no way defensive (beyond, perhaps, seeking nuclear weapons to prevent regime change). for nearly two decades now they have been extremely aggressive and destabilizing as they have sought to empower Shia tyrannies, Shia parties, and Shia terrorist organizations throughout the region and unite them under their banner. their posture is fundamentally offensive and power-maximizing.

[Kaslo]

https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1...802605568?s=20

[Gredival]

they are not explicitly revanchist as is Russia nor seeking to usurp superpower status as is China, but their foreign policy is in no way defensive (beyond, perhaps, seeking nuclear weapons to prevent regime change). for nearly two decades now they have been extremely aggressive and destabilizing as they have sought to empower Shia tyrannies, Shia parties, and Shia terrorist organizations throughout the region and unite them under their banner. their posture is fundamentally offensive and power-maximizing.

I see it as a defensive realist regime acting to maintain it's sphere of influence against regional rivals (Saudi Arabia). Yemen serves as a proxy confrontation.

While the scenario is unlikely I feel that tensions and aggressions would calm down in a world where MBS also chilled the fuck out.

Of course the problem is that the region constantly experiences power vacuums, due in no small part to us, and those will always fuel draw in. Vacuums themselves are a distortion of balance that compels actors to do something because doing nothing would upend the status quo from rivals gaining.

[Lucavi]

I'm... pleasantly surprised at the fact that Iran both seems to have attacked in such a way that didn't kill anyone (Airplane issues non-withstanding that's some other level of fuck) and that Trump et al took the "Look man we don't want war just let us have this" and didn't fuck it up.

Iran needed to do SOMETHING to avoid losing face among its own people, but didn't want this to escalate to a stupidly bloody fiasco between two nations who can ill afford war for different reasons. I'm relieved at this moment that both nations' crazy ass leaders aren't as crazy as I dreaded. There's a difference between puffed-up, chest-thumping bellowing (opposing armies in the past did it all the time while facing off the other side, while maybe throwing a few arrows or spears) vs. hard committals that cannot be taken back once initiated.

Both sides talked hot shit, bragged to their boys about it, but backed off in the end before the cops arrived. What a relief.

[6souls]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51051826



Iran's Brig-General held a briefing over their missile strike. Also, those flags behind him confirms Iran's connections to various militias in the region including the Yemen's Houthi movement which I ran denied being involved with.

Revolutionary Guards aerospace commander Brig-Gen Hajizadeh said Iran had been prepared to fire hundreds or even thousands of missiles. In the event fewer than 20 were fired.

The intention had not been to kill any US troops, he said, but the operation could have been planned in such a way that as many as 500 died in the first stage, and thousands more if the US had responded.

"We had thought that the clash would continue for three days to one week. We had prepared a few thousand missiles for such circumstances," he said in remarks carried by the Fars news agency.

Brig-Gen Hajizadeh also said that Iran had launched cyber attacks which had disabled US systems for tracking missiles during the strikes. However, US officials say casualties at the bases were prevented because early warning systems worked effectively.

Also, according to Pence, "encouraging intelligence" says Iran is directing it's militias to stop attacking Americans.

[kuronosan]

I wonder if it is the same intelligence that says Trump is compromised.

[6souls]

https://www.businessinsider.com/ukra...missile-2020-1

The pentagon, citing unconfirmed sources, says that the 737 was accidentally shot down by an anti-aircraft missile.

Ukrainian International Airlines Flight 752 is suspected to have been hit by fire from a Russian-built Tor M-1 (SA-15) surface-to-air missile system operated by the Iranian military, according to multiple reports.

Pentagon officials told Newsweek that the incident is believed to have been an accident, as anti-aircraft systems were likely active at the time of the suspected shoot down. The Pentagon could not confirm the report for Insider.

CBS News reports that US officials are confident that Iran shot down Flight 752, explaining that US intelligence detected anti-aircraft radars turning on prior to the crash. Satellites detected two infrared blips, suspected SA-15 missile launches, that were followed by another blip, the aircraft explosion.

[archibaldcrane]

This would be absolutely tragic and also I'm looking for confirmation from something beyond anon pentagon sources

And also let's blame trump for putting Iranian anti-aircraft batteries on high alert

Can't believe trump killed all those canadians smh

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[Xno Kappa]

It’s legit.

[Zealot]

I think we always knew in our hearts Iran shot down that plane.

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[archibaldcrane]

Shooting down civilian airliners during Iran/US tensions is a global pastime.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655

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[Salodin]

I think we all knew but didnt want it to be true. But americans weren't on board, and we already know canada ain't gonna fight for all those lives lost

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[Dimmauk]

Shooting down civilian airliners during Iran/US tensions is a global pastime.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655

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Thanks Obama

[guartz]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51051826



Iran's Brig-General held a briefing over their missile strike. Also, those flags behind him confirms Iran's connections to various militias in the region including the Yemen's Houthi movement which I ran denied being involved with.



Also, according to Pence, "encouraging intelligence" says Iran is directing it's militias to stop attacking Americans.

https://twitter.com/Raman_Ghavami/st...130701315?s=20
"A source inside IRGC tells me that since yesterday evening, 56 of IRGC commanders have been arrested by the IRGC’s intelligence organisation. According to the source, knows as Haj Vahid,one of Soleimani’s most trusted in Iraq is missing since the strike on Soleimani."

If true, it looks like a lot like what happened in Saudia Arabia with the princes. Combined with the BBC article it looks like maybe a more pro-western internal faction will emerge from this?