Iran - It's Not Just Hostages and Arms Deals Anymore

[Salodin]

I really can't tell if people in this thread are trying to justify a war with Iran, after over 2 decades of war in Afghanistan, when we could just not engage in another war half the planet away.

Reminder that Iran didn't do anything. Israel drew first blood. And you say Iran can't have nukes, but look what happened to Ukraine against their geopolitical rival the second they lost their nukes. Honestly, why shouldn't every single country aspire for nukes when that's the only way to push back against international aggression?

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[Lyltia]

Iran used its proxies to deter this exact scenario to great effect for many years. Israel thinks that Iran is both more likely to sprint to a nuclear weapon to restore deterrence now that it’s proxies are in shambles, and that they will likely never get a chance as good as this one to eliminate a rival who, rational actor or not, routinely calls for the complete destruction of their country.

Israel would be irrational not to take this opportunity. If we allow ourselves to get dragged into it, willingly or not, that’s on us, I think.

[Lyltia]

And yes, the lesson of Libya, Ukraine, and now Iran is that nonproliferation is a scam run by the existing nuclear powers. History will not judge this generation of leaders kindly, if there’s anyone left to pass judgment in a hundred years.

[Outlaw]

So how long till Israel officially declares war and we join in? I give it until after July 4th.

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[archibaldcrane]

Israel has yet to shoot a nuke at someone but I think we all know what Iran would do the moment they get one.

They're doing Nagasaki-numbers in Gaza despite not using a nuke, and the idea that Iran would immediately nuke Israel if they could is idiotic.

[ccl]

Iran is "a week away" from Nuclear weapon since 1992 according to Israel, this is just another Iraq WMD scam, really surprised people fall into it, I guess "nuclear fear" is needed to have people focus away from Gaza.

[6souls]

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1935038709079912472

[Cail]

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1935038709079912472

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1935044784269193355

[Lyltia]

Iran is "a week away" from Nuclear weapon since 1992 according to Israel, this is just another Iraq WMD scam, really surprised people fall into it, I guess "nuclear fear" is needed to have people focus away from Gaza.

They’ve been doing a genocide in Gaza for years now with very little consequence, I fail to see why they’d suddenly feel the need for a distraction of this magnitude now.

Iran felt secure enough with their conventional assymetric deterrent; that is now ashes. Iran has been “a week away from a bomb” for years precisely because of this deterrent; it made zero sense to push for a bomb when their conventional deterrent was in place. It is common accepted knowledge that Iran has had the capability to make one for decades; trying to paint this as an “Iraqi WMD” is completely misreading history and geopolitics.

The key to this situation is that it is largely irrelevant what Iran can/will do at this point. Their deterrent against Israeli attack is gone, the only way to restore it within a decade is to make a bomb, and Israel is not going to wait around for Iran to make that decision. Iran was stupid enough to call for Israel’s complete destruction at the highest levels of government for decades, which gives Israel an ironclad rationale for a preemptive strike to its own people - don’t make the mistake of thinking that Israel cares about anyone else’s opinion on the matter, even ours.

To be clear I think this whole thing is awful but its the geopolitics equivalent of 1+1=2, no need to overthink it.

[Tymon]

[Rhyis.]

You trust Trump over Tulsi? She actually gets intelligence briefings unlike Trump.

Fact of the matter is Israel has been claiming Iran is a few weeks away from having nukes since like 2010 (probably earlier). US' own intelligence says otherwise.

https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/17/polit...nce-years-away

You're being conned.

For the third time in this thread, the International Atomic Energy Agency has said Iran are not following nuclear guidelines at this time. The IAEA is made of a board of 35 different countries.

In response Iran openly stated they have opened a new enrichment site and will upgrade centrifuges in their Fordow nuclear facility, basically telling the world go fuck yourself we are working our way to making nukes.

This isn't made up.

[Tyrath]

For the last time, no one here has said Iran is NOT working to make nukes. They're just not anywhere close like the warmongers keep claiming.

[Krandor]

So like, everyone should just wait around for them to finish before deciding to act?

[Tyrath]

We had deals in place to prevent this that this fucking president sabotaged. So no, I don't think we should let him drag us into a war over it.

[Tyrath]

And like, if they're not close there isn't an urgency to fucking start blowing them up.

[Obsidian]

We had deals in place to prevent this that this fucking president sabotaged. So no, I don't think we should let him drag us into a war over it.

Deals Iran was (and still is) clearly ignoring.

Edit: To be abundantly clear I am not in favour of war. The idea that Iran hasn't brought this on itself is what I find a bit ridiculous.

[Xno Kappa]

Preventing nuclear proliferation in the region is reason enough for Israel to take out the Iranian regime who’s already been a destabilizing force in the Middle East for decades.

The IAEA has flat out said Iran is up to some nuclear shenanigans. Shedding crocodile tears because there isn’t some arbitrary red line that they’ve crossed seems incredibly silly. But you do you I guess.

And no. I don’t want the US involved in another war. But I’m not gonna twist myself into a human pretzel and pretend poor ol’ Iran is the victim in all this and are really the good guys.

[Andalusian girls]

there are a lot of moving pieces but the fact is US intelligence said Iran was 3 years away from potentially producing a weapon, and that they were not actively developing one despite the IAEA violations. there was space and time for diplomacy, if one wanted to pursue it, and diplomacy has hitherto prevented Iran from developing nuclear weapons (most notably the 2003 cessation of their documented nuclear weapons program), despite 30 years of Israel warning they were imminently to do so.

moreover Israel simply does not have the capacity to stop an Iranian nuclear weapons path, they can only delay one. despite murdering scientists and people they wanted an excuse to kill (Revolutionary Guards generals are not nice people but their deaths will have zero impact on nuclear development), they cannot seriously damage the fortified fuel enrichment plant at Fordow. US intelligence estimates the entirety of Israel's attacks have delayed Iran going nuclear by a few months, and it leaves Iran in the position of being possibly more, not less, inclined to seek nuclear weapons to forestall attacks of this nature in the future.

geopolitics is rarely a matter of good guys and bad guys. one doesn't need to like Iran to condemn Israel's actions as short-sighted and counter-productive (and blatantly shift-the-focus manipulative given their war crimes in Gaza + Netanyahu's corruption indictments). if people in here want to stop Iran from going nuclear no matter the cost, and believe diplomacy has no possible place in attaining that, then at least say it with your chest and demand the US go to war with Iran. what Israel has done makes Iran going nuclear more likely not less, in this observer's humble opinion.

[Andalusian girls]

the best thing that could be salvaged at this point is Washington convincing Tehran a US strike is imminent unless they come to the negotiating table (with some back channels winkwink sanctions relief). it's a suboptimal strategic bluff with no room for maneuver but it is the only hand left, besides yet another Middle Eastern War, all of which have done so much to make our country safer nay

[6souls]

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1935072942083154139