Iran - It's Not Just Hostages and Arms Deals Anymore

[6souls]

They shouldn't. But they're also not close to having them.

https://x.com/atrupar/status/1935046781915525545

[6souls]

Multiple news outlets reporting that the US is set to join in on the strikes. The meeting with security council had just ended a few minutes ago.

[Lyltia]

Israel has been pretty upfront that they are unable to wipe out the nuclear capability of Iran through violence. I think they made a calculated gamble to bait U.S. involvement, which is looking like a pretty good bet at this point. If that fails, they’ll fight a conventional war until there’s regime change that facilitates a political decision to remove the nuclear capability themselves, or turn Iran into a failed state so they can send ground forces in to finish what the air strikes couldn’t. All terrible and messy but all victory scenarios for Israel.

[Lyltia]

I think it’s safe to say at this point that the Islamic republic is finished. The question is, are they willing to pull a Syria and give their country a clean slate and path forward, or do they cling to power while it all burns down around them?

[Tyrath]

there are a lot of moving pieces but the fact is US intelligence said Iran was 3 years away from potentially producing a weapon, and that they were not actively developing one despite the IAEA violations. there was space and time for diplomacy, if one wanted to pursue it, and diplomacy has hitherto prevented Iran from developing nuclear weapons (most notably the 2003 cessation of their documented nuclear weapons program), despite 30 years of Israel warning they were imminently to do so.

moreover Israel simply does not have the capacity to stop an Iranian nuclear weapons path, they can only delay one. despite murdering scientists and people they wanted an excuse to kill (Revolutionary Guards generals are not nice people but their deaths will have zero impact on nuclear development), they cannot seriously damage the fortified fuel enrichment plant at Fordow. US intelligence estimates the entirety of Israel's attacks have delayed Iran going nuclear by a few months, and it leaves Iran in the position of being possibly more, not less, inclined to seek nuclear weapons to forestall attacks of this nature in the future.

geopolitics is rarely a matter of good guys and bad guys. one doesn't need to like Iran to condemn Israel's actions as short-sighted and counter-productive (and blatantly shift-the-focus manipulative given their war crimes in Gaza + Netanyahu's corruption indictments). if people in here want to stop Iran from going nuclear no matter the cost, and believe diplomacy has no possible place in attaining that, then at least say it with your chest and demand the US go to war with Iran. what Israel has done makes Iran going nuclear more likely not less, in this observer's humble opinion.

Sir stop being a pretzel.

[Xno Kappa]

there are a lot of moving pieces but the fact is US intelligence said Iran was 3 years away from potentially producing a weapon, and that they were not actively developing one despite the IAEA violations. there was space and time for diplomacy, if one wanted to pursue it, and diplomacy has hitherto prevented Iran from developing nuclear weapons (most notably the 2003 cessation of their documented nuclear weapons program), despite 30 years of Israel warning they were imminently to do so.

Then we fundamentally disagree. Even when the JPCOA was signed estimates varied just as wildly from a couple of months to 3-5 years. Diplomacy if left as is right now as they openly skirt sanctions related to their weapons program will inevitably lead to a nuclear armed Iran.

[Xno Kappa]

And a reminder Biden and his administration made numerous attempts to bring Iran back to the table with the 2015 deal.

[Tyrath]

I mean the admin before Biden fucked up that deal and now they are in charge again. Why would they trust us to go back to it?

[Krandor]

The UK/France/Germany/and the EU itself are all still part of the JCPOA, and yesterday all the G7 leaders (which includes those 4) all said they support Israel in this.

[Tyrath]

https://www.latintimes.com/marjorie-...opposes-585151

Marjorie Taylor Greene Says Americans 'Have Been Brainwashed' By Fox News, New York Post As She Opposes U.S. Entering Israel-Iran War

Heartbreaking, worst person you know, etc etc.

[mallister]

Her and Tucker both. Oh, ye grifters. How you have fallen.

[6souls]

https://www.latintimes.com/marjorie-...opposes-585151



Heartbreaking, worst person you know, etc etc.

[Athas]

What's the angle for their opposition here?

[Tyrath]

Well Tucker is a Russian asset. Idk about MTG. Maybe same? No clue.

[Byrthnoth]

Trump is such a sucker.

In everything he does, all the time, he moves from getting conned in one way to the next.

[Anoat]

Well Tucker is a Russian asset. Idk about MTG. Maybe same? No clue.

She is absolutely a Russian asset and it was proven that one time she started ranting about some tiny ass obscure province on the Ukraine/Russia border that NOBODY was talking about except it was mentioned in some briefing that she wasn’t supposed to have access to

[Emphasis]

From what I've seen MAGA has been split on this issue, but I genuinely don't think there is any single issue, or an accumulation of them that will cause them to break away from Trump and today's GOP.

[archibaldcrane]

The American people are STRONGLY against US military action in Iran, including 2024 Trump voters

https://twitter.com/glcarlstrom/stat...VwzzBDDXw&s=19

Sent from my SM-A546U using Tapatalk

[Salodin]

The American people are STRONGLY against US military action in Iran, including 2024 Trump voters

https://twitter.com/glcarlstrom/stat...VwzzBDDXw&s=19

Sent from my SM-A546U using Tapatalk

Right of center will tow the line when asked to. I have no faith in polls of hypotheticals like this cause MAGA and MAGA-adjacent individuals are not consistent in their views or desires

Sent from my SM-S936U using Tapatalk

[Dimmauk]

I'm surprised a republican president is going to take us to war. Shocked. We're going to war like any time this week.