2019 NFL Week Spam: The New Thread

[Roranora]

This is a modified version of the price is right problem, and it hurts your brain if you don't do the base work from the start.

thought it was the Monty Hall problem, different names for the same thing?

[Demosthenes]

Should be 50% unless I forget how probability works

P(A) * P(B) where P(A) is 1 because it is a given that it was a crit.

This is correct.

[archibaldcrane]

thought it was the Monty Hall problem, different names for the same thing?

Yeah I believe so, just updating the reference

[archibaldcrane]

This is correct.

No, it's not.

It would be true if you said "the first hit was a crit" (or "the second hit was a crit") but if it's just that definitely one of them was a crit then it's 33%.

[Roranora]

This is correct.

it doesn't guarantee the first hit is a critical but rather perhaps the first, perhaps the second, or perhaps both, but not neither

[archibaldcrane]

it doesn't guarantee the first hit is a critical but rather perhaps the first, perhaps the second, perhaps both

^

[Krandor]

It's 50% chance, why is this hard?

One of the two is guaranteed, so you're only working off the base 50% chance.

[Demosthenes]

Two swings, 50% crit chance

O O
X O
O X
X X

each have a 25% probability

But we know that at least one of the hits is a crit, so we remove the option where there is none

X O
O X
X X

all equally possible, 33% chance of two crits.

One of two states is already guaranteed to give crit. You will always have 1 crit. The third state can either give a crit or not give a crit. The chances of that state is 50%. You're not trying to figure out all the states. You're trying to figure out one state.

[archibaldcrane]

I mean, I diagrammed the entire problem above, just read it lol

[Andalusian girls]

Demo how you gonna post a math problem and give the wrong answer, Archibald is correct.

i fucked up by reading it as the 2nd hit was a crit but the wording is 'one of the hits' meaning neither roll is defined as a crit merely defined in the aggregate by a removal of the 25% no crits outcome raising the probability of double crits to 33.3%. as Archi illustrates the other possible 1/3rd outcomes are either XO OX. single crits yes but two ways to get to them.

[archibaldcrane]

One of two states is already guaranteed to give crit. You will always have 1 crit. The third state can either give a crit or not give a crit. The chances of that state is 50%. You're not trying to figure out all the states. You're trying to figure out one state.

Like I said, it breaks your brain if you don't slow down, back up and work it out like an 8 year old.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

[archibaldcrane]

Demo how you gonna post a math problem and give the wrong answer

It's v funny

Archibald is correct

Always applicable

[Roranora]

depending on the goat (and the car), i might prefer the goat

[NynJa]

These nerds arguing over this gay math problem cause they know FOUR MORE YEARS

[Andalusian girls]

ironic the guy who voted for a woman is the only one to do the math correctly mirite fellas

[Roranora]

hey i wrote in hillary

[Dimmauk]

It's 50% chance, why is this hard?

One of the two is guaranteed, so you're only working off the base 50% chance.

Fucking this LOL

[Andalusian girls]

ok i'm kind of retarded but Archi did the work so simply and visually a child could follow it how are you guys still sticking to the wrong answer.

neither the first roll nor the second roll is explicitly defined as being a crit, rather they are defined together as at least one of them being a crit. that excludes only one of the four possible outcomes (no crits for either) as there are two different sequences to get them to having one crit, and there remains the double crit sequence.

[Roranora]

it's a paradoxical brain teaser and it's sure to conflict with many and their superficial flawed takes on it

[Dimmauk]

The answer is 42. So STFU