but nah i reckon Biden wins fairly easily. his margins are significantly larger than Hilldog's, turnout looks like it will be massive which always aids Dems, the third party/undecided vote share being far smaller makes election day movement less significant, and he's over 50% in all the battlegrounds he needs to win. people forget that in 2016 Hilldog finished polling at 46.8% and wound up with 48.2% of the actual vote on election day as parts of the unallocated vote broke for her; the issue was they broke harder for Donald and her 3.2% polling lead shrank to an effective 2.1% vote share lead, enabling Donaldo to squeak by by 100,000 votes in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania in demographically friendly states. exempli gratia she ended Pennsylvania polling at 46.3% and ending up nabbing 47.5%. Biden meanwhile is polling at 50.3%, he would not only have to have 0 undecideds break for him his vote share would have to actively decline (rather than grow by a smaller margin than does Trump's, which is what happened to Hilldog).
a lot of people took the wrong lessons from 2016 which was an abnormally volatile race as neither candidate sniffed 50% and the unallocated vote share was relatively massive (almost 10% vs 5% this year).
that said, Donald can still win. polls would have to be moderately to significantly off and strongly correlated in their wrongness, but we have seen that before. ironically, and despite conventional wisdom, it's not what we saw in 2016. this would be a much different, and much less probable, kind of wrong.
The biggest question in my mind is how long is it going to be drawn out. Will Donald finally concede in a few days? After a Supreme Court ruling? After not being able to garner enough faithless electors at the EC? Will he finally shut up after Inauguration Day? And that’s just if Biden wins
I do want to try whole hog bbq...
Bold prediction: Trump loses and cries in defeat.
Went to Costco today for misc items and they were completely out of toilet paper. It was crazy seeing the toilet paper and water section. They had pallets of tvs back there in the open space instead.
They actually did colored ketchup marketed to kids back in the 90s. I remember the texture being grainy.
Win or lose he's not shutting up any time soon.
He’s already said he will be sending his lawyers to investigate the moment the polls close, already preparing to delegitimize the result.
Spoiler: show
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CBSN is doing a replay of Trump's Michigan rally from earlier this evening and he asks the crowd "has anyone voted?" Crowd responds "noooooooooooooooooooooooo." To which he responds "you're saving your votes, right?"
To people that are still up late or if your on the west coast.
If you haven't yet and are voting tomorrow please be safe!
I can't sleep tonight as usual, but I'm sure a lot of non insomniacs can not sleep tonight either..
Chris Cuomo was on CNN late tonight and quoted some staggering statistics. I don't always trust them to check their shit before they broadcast it so I did some fact checking of my own. Turns out he's right.
I'll give you the short of it. Very close to 100 million people have already voted. That equates to about 70% of all votes cast in the 2016 election. Experts are predicting historic turnouts today. More than 160 million may vote this year. That equals about 67% of total eligible voters. That would be more than when Obama got elected. It could be the most voter turnout in more than 100 years.
In the best case 1/3rd of the voting populace genuinely don't care about the results. Neat.
If Dems take over everything, they could go full Australia and not only make Election Day a national holiday, but make it mandatory that everyone has to vote
Edit: And then the Republicans in protest would deliberately break the law and not vote because "everything the Dems do is bad". It's the perfect plan.