2020 General Election II: How About This Kanye Fella

[6souls]

https://twitter.com/AP/status/1311360924150890498

[archibaldcrane]

7 points is a bit tight, considering he needs something like 6 points nationally to win.

Bzzt wrongo

[Xno Kappa]

https://twitter.com/AP/status/1311360924150890498

This literally means nothing if one of the “tools” isn’t to just flat out turn off the mic.

[archibaldcrane]

538's forecast has him winning the popular vote by 6.7%, and winning the tipping point state of Pennsylvania by 4.9%, a 1.8 point electoral college bias towards Trump. Not 6.

[Day]

well if 538 forecast says it

[Day]

never forget

[kuronosan]

This literally means nothing if one of the “tools” isn’t to just flat out turn off the mic.

They're going to sternly tell them to behave.

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[Limlight]

i'll never understand why so many 538 poll's are posted here

[Qalbert]

[Melena]

This literally means nothing if one of the “tools” isn’t to just flat out turn off the mic.

I'm hoping more for shock punishments. Every time he speaks out of turn, zap. It will probably turn into Pence vs Biden within 15 minutes.

[Salodin]

i'll never understand why so many 538 poll's are posted here

Because they're very accurate and even go over their record at the end of whatever season it is theyre forecasting

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[Day]

pepperidge farm

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/...-go-wrong.html

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...-donald-trump/

[Andalusian girls]

very accurate =/= omniscient

[Andalusian girls]

and by the end their model was giving Donald more of a chance than almost anyone

[Day]

didn't even click my links for shame

[Andalusian girls]

i click everything

[Tyrath]

and by the end their model was giving Donald more of a chance than almost anyone

People keep forgetting this.

[Day]

it was still 70/30 his calls about Trump in the primary were even worse

[Andalusian girls]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probab...s%20certainty.

and i like Silver the man but his punditry is not his statistical work. the latter has far more predictive value, as a pundit he is amusing and occasionally insightful but subject to the same foibles as any of them. those early articles, as his mea culpa autopsy states, were light on data and heavy on fuzzy 'the party decides' conventional wisdom.

our early estimates of Trump’s chances weren’t based on a statistical model. Instead, they were what we “subjective odds” — which is to say, educated guesses.

[Andalusian girls]

basically

The FiveThirtyEight “polls-only” model has correctly predicted the winner in 52 of 57 (91 percent) primaries and caucuses so far in 2016, and our related “polls-plus” model has gone 51-for-57 (89 percent). Furthermore, the forecasts have been well-calibrated, meaning that upsets have occurred about as often as they’re supposed to but not more often.

their work is not sacrosanct, even their data journalism is sometimes wrong and their regulah journalism was spectacularly wrong, but i defy anyone to find an outfit that is right more consistently vis-a-vis their statistical models.