Final Fantasy XVI (PC/PS5) - June 22, 2023

[Andalusian girls]

right except the declining stock valuation was not arrested by the sales figures so there was not in fact a massive difference to shareholders

but yeah only Mayareira is blaming FFXVI for it. rest of us just noted SE is in trouble, and FFXVI wasn't enough to get it out of trouble.

[Prothescar]

It just means the outrageous number of terrible games outweighed the single good game (XVI) that they released in the last 1-2 years. That doesn't make XVI a cause for the loss of investors. None of us can quantify how many shareholders stuck around because of the successes vs how many left due to losses so even saying that XVI had no effect at all is a guess, not a fact.

[Andalusian girls]

excuse yaself, Tactics Ogre: Reborn is an excellent game

also i suggest you look at Square-Enix's stock price over time if you want hard facts. the fact is a huge piece of shit like Forspoken in January did fairly little to its stock price, a small decline that corrected within a month or two. and in fact the trend of decline actually accelerated after FFXVI's release relative to the year prior to it, suggesting widespread dissatisfaction among shareholders with its performance.

we are all guessing as to cause and effect here, but to my eyes it looks like investor confidence in SE had been trending downwards for some time because of lackluster products, but many investors were hanging tough to see if FFXVI's sales would be strong enough to make up the difference. and their conclusion is that it did not. despite its profitability SE valuation experienced one of its most drastic declines in the aftermath of its release, and this in the backdrop of a surging Nikkei.

[Zealot]

Don't worry, they can always remake Final Fantasy VII - oh, uh oh.

[Prothescar]

Stock dipping near XVI release isn't evidence of XVI causing or attributing to the loss of investors. The earnings call that caused all of this to start happening was at that same time. Their latest financial report dropped the same week that people started spreading the rumor that the game didn't meet sales expectations. The statement that was later clarified on Twitter regarding XVI's performance was from an analyst call at this same time. These reports included massive failures such as Babylon's Fall.

[Kaslo]

Also, the stock drop was driven primarily by a decrease in MOBILE income

[Prothescar]

Yeah, First Soldier flopped within months of its launch

[Andalusian girls]

the quarterly earnings report was released in August, or six weeks after FFXVI's release, and took into account its early sales. and Babylon's Fall was released in March 2022, a failure within a month of that, and shut down in February of this year, all within earlier earnings period. indeed its sunk production costs being in those periods rather than XVI's ought help the latter's comparative performance. alls i can say is i've been analyzing stock performance for a lot of my adult life and it shows SE is not being viewed as a healthy company, and FFXVI did not change that view, nor their financial outlook.

that is not the same as saying it is FFXVI's 'fault', but i fear nuance is being lost. XVI was not a failure, not unprofitable, and not the cause of SE's troubles. but by the president's admission it did not hit their higher end sales projections. and with the present financial state of SE they really needed it to.

but this seems like an emotional issue not really being engaged with in good faith. saying there is no provable metric of cause and effect in individual product performance relative to stock price (which is true, we are conjecturing) in one breath then saying look clearly it is the mobile division's and First Soldier's fault in the next is not so logical. so i shall bid you all adieu, adieu sirs.

[Zealot]

I've been awaiting the news that Sony is buying Square-Enix for several years now, I have felt like being acquired by someone is almost inevitable in their future.

[Prothescar]

the quarterly earnings report was released in August, or six weeks after FFXVI's release, and took into account its early sales. and Babylon's Fall was released in March 2022, a failure within a month of that, and shut down in February of this year, all within earlier earnings period. indeed its sunk production costs being in those periods rather than XVI's ought help the latter's comparative performance. alls i can say is i've been analyzing stock performance for a lot of my adult life and it shows SE is not being viewed as a healthy company, and FFXVI did not change that view, nor their financial outlook.

that is not the same as saying it is FFXVI's 'fault', but i fear nuance is being lost. XVI was not a failure, not unprofitable, and not the cause of SE's troubles. but by the president's admission it did not hit their higher end sales projections. and with the present financial state of SE they really needed it to.

but this seems like an emotional issue not really being engaged with in good faith. saying there is no provable metric of cause and effect in individual product performance relative to stock price (which is true, we are conjecturing) in one breath then saying look clearly it is the mobile division's and First Soldier's fault in the next is not so logical. so i shall bid you all adieu, adieu sirs.

I never said XVI wasn't on the report, I said that the drop in stock coincides with the release of their financial reports. Your proof is inconclusive especially when there were several other far bigger factors to cause the stock to drop. I'd argue that your expectation of a single game being able t o outweigh several expensive failures and a decline in mobile revenue is the bad faith here. It's utter nonsense to try to say that XVI's performance alone should have carried or really had any impact on the fact that they lost investors. Their entire report was full of red numbers. You've also misrepresented what I said. I told you that you can't prove that XVI in itself caused any shareholders to stay or leave. I said that you can absolutely assume that an entire report full of bad news would cause shareholders to leave. Comparing the failing of their largest revenue stream (mobile) to a single game is outrageous, honestly.

But sure, dismiss all that by saying I'm just arguing emotionally.

[Andalusian girls]

I've been awaiting the news that Sony is buying Square-Enix for several years now, I have felt like being acquired by someone is almost inevitable in their future.

Microsoft was looking hard at them around when they gobbled up Bethesda. worse the stock does easier it gets, but i think Japanese cultural chauvinism may block any non-Japanese company acquiring them through regulatory impasse.

it would be p ironic if Sony grabbed them and forever condemned their products to Playstations as a significant amount of SE's issues would be alleviated by simply getting their products onto more systems. something of an evil mastermind stroke if directed. . . .

[Anoat]

SE sales expectations are ridiculously fucking high, the Tomb Raider franchise sold a shit ton and was still considered a disappointment. The Life Is Strange franchise is a huge hit comparative to cost of producing it, same with Tactics Ogre Reborn, but they still say they don’t meet expectations. XIV was so popular at Endwalker launch that they had to stop selling the game and suspend the free trial because there were so many people playing.

But SE makes boneheaded moves like selling off franchises like Tomb Raider and Hitman and using that to invest in NFT bullshit, or making a deal with Sony for PS5 exclusivity for XVI. The exclusivity fee Sony pays should be substantial to cover the losses from not selling Xbox or PC versions, but alas. They also have had some mobile games be DOA, and Forspoken being a critical and commercial flop didn’t help.

XIV is gonna peak again in a few months when Xbox version and next expansion launches. XVI is going to get a huge boost in numbers when Xbox and PC version comes out, and probably even more in a year or two’s time when they release “complete editions” with all the DLC. The IX and Tactics remakes will probably be out next year and VII ReBirth is gonna be huge.

SE is gonna be fine, but their reliance on the FF franchise and seeming inability to successfully diversify beyond it is troubling.

[Andalusian girls]

yeah nah that's true, they have a lot of heat coming down the pipe in 2024. and with ReBirth's alleged minimal 3 month exclusivity window seems they've taken some lessons from XVI. PS5-only exclusivity probably, literally, results in at least a 50% reduction in possible sales. this is not a widely-owned system.

after that tho, who knows eh. next mainline entry won't be for what, 6 years? and they'll have finished remastering/remaking all their most successful games. Xenogears Reborn take the wheel

[Zealot]

Chrono Trigger Rewound

[kuronosan]

Chrono Trigger Rewound

Could totally get behind a not fucks up the whole series sequel

[Bweigelt]

I want an FFT remaster/remake the has changes as big as the PSP and Reborn versions of Tactics Ogre. FFT is a great game but there are so many flaws with the gameplay and we need an actual decent translation that isn't whatever the fuck they were doing with WOTL. CT is perfect the way it is and needs nothing.

[Anoat]

Is Square involved in the Mario RPG remake for Switch, or is that all Nintendo? Cause that’s gonna slap and I’m buying that shit day one

[Mayareira]

right except the declining stock valuation was not arrested by the sales figures so there was not in fact a massive difference to shareholders

but yeah only Mayareira is blaming FFXVI for it. rest of us just noted SE is in trouble, and FFXVI wasn't enough to get it out of trouble.

Nah man, I agree with what you’ve guys written above, especially about the quality of the game. The “mixed reviews” comment on articles out there, most recent being a Bloomberg one is BS.

Its more of a business issue for them. Relying on a single title for commercial success is always risky. The risk can be mitigated by having a larger potential buyer base (multiplatform or heck involving prev. Generation) so exclusivity isn’t helping them either.

For better financial results Rebirth will have to get rid of its exclusivity as quick as possible, if they are expecting a FF7Remake level of success they may end up being disappointed since back in 2020 PS4 had a very well established userbase.

[Zealot]

I think the solution is more Dragon Quest in the west.

[Madeline]

I'm sure there's plenty of people like me that stop caring once a game has been out for years anyway and just end up waiting for a sale. Initial hype, regardless of if the game is playable to the individual or not, comes and goes. 16 is old hat already. Reviews exist, commentary, everyone has an opinion already. I'm going to wait a year anyway, what's another 2-3?

Releasing into that environment isn't ideal. Exclusivity sucks for consumers, and on your big, named title that you were apparently banking on? Oof.