Senate drops to 52-48, with Arizona going for McSally by the skin of her teeth with a higher than expected Trump turnout. Colorado flips. Collins holds on somehow. Alabama flips and Georgia eventually retains both R seats post runoff - my guess is Loeffler. Tillis in NC is probably the one that gets picked off.
House Dems gain an okay-ish amount, around 5-8.
Any of the pink states can flip and any of the light blue ones could turn as well. I think a higher than expected Black and Hispanic turnout for Trump, but lower turnout overall for the two demographics is a big difference in states like Arizona, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. The mysterious "youth vote" is still nowhere to be seen.
Minnesota is honestly my biggest head-scratcher. I don't think Scranton Joe is enough to save him in Pennsylvania over his energy comments, but I get the sense that many on the Democrat side are seeing something scary in Minnesota and really tried to walk the line between projecting confidence and mobilizing GOTV efforts. Those 10 EV's may not decide the election, but if Minnesota is called earlier than Michigan or Pennsylvania (granted, I don't know early counting laws in that state) the winner there will be reflective of the rest of those north/midwest questionmarks.
XI Wiki





