The Stock Market Is Not The Economy Thread II

[archibaldcrane]

Great. People still can't afford shit

By what metric?

Or, compared to when, in your estimation?

[thetruepandagod]

people afforded more while working less previously

[kuronosan]

By what metric?

Or, compared to when, in your estimation?

I guess compared to 4-5 years ago? Homelessness is still a problem, so for me I think the useful metric would be to cross reference unemployment with numbers correlating with both average jobs per person, debt per person, net income, and rent. Per region.

Not sure how else to explain my concern and confusion. Obviously I'm not struggling here, but I can't wrap my mind around how "more people working" means "less poverty".

[Salodin]

I guess compared to 4-5 years ago? Homelessness is still a problem, so for me I think the useful metric would be to cross reference unemployment with numbers correlating with both average jobs per person, debt per person, net income, and rent. Per region.

Not sure how else to explain my concern and confusion. Obviously I'm not struggling here, but I can't wrap my mind around how "more people working" means "less poverty".

You're spraying on the wall and hoping something sticks.

Housing prices was a problem before pandemic inflation, and it's still a problem now. I'm not saying there aren't things to be concerned about, but a lot of these problems were here before as well. Inflation is down, wages are up. Purchasing power could be better, and it is, but overall things are moving in a better direction, not worse.

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[kuronosan]

Alright, perhaps a better way of putting this is my concern the numbers are themselves inflated based on how they count employment. For example the site claims that a spouse who helps a couple of days a week is considered employed as well.

Doesn't that falsely bump the numbers? Or is there general number of 4% reported as full time? I can't find whether or not someone with multiple jobs is counted multiple times or not.

[Salodin]

A job is a job though, part time or otherwise. The same charts that said things are trending bad and pain is coming, the charts that everyone believed including yourself, are now saying that pain is passing and things are getting better.

Why do you believe them when they're doom and gloom negativity, but stop believing them the second they're optimistic?

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[kuronosan]

I don't believe them either way because I don't understand how these metrics are useful due to not knowing what factors are used to calculate them.

It stands to reason that if they're using any employment as employment two things are true: 1) the values are skewed, and 2) the number will almost always be falsely lower as a result.

[Salodin]

But if they were skewed now, they would be skewed before, and by the same metric things are getting better. I know you understand this

[Spicyryan]

By what metric?

Or, compared to when, in your estimation?

There's that bubble.

[kuronosan]

But if they were skewed now, they would be skewed before, and by the same metric things are getting better. I know you understand this

Before people weren't working multiple jobs who purposely decreased hours to avoid having to pay for benefits while being paid wages outpaced by cost of living that moved faster than Usain Bolt. I know you understand this.

[Salodin]

You'll have to give me a citation that shows an appreciable amount of people are working multiple jobs compared to whatever timeframe you're referencing

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[NynJa]

A job is a job though, part time or otherwise. The same charts that said things are trending bad and pain is coming, the charts that everyone believed including yourself, are now saying that pain is passing and things are getting better.

Why do you believe them when they're doom and gloom negativity, but stop believing them the second they're optimistic?

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So someone working a part time 20hrs per week job at $6/hr (idk what minimum in US is right now) is making enough to survive? I dont think thatll cover food and renting a couch.

But hey, theyre employed, gott make that unemployment rate go down no matter what.

[Spicyryan]

Before people weren't working multiple jobs who purposely decreased hours to avoid having to pay for benefits while being paid wages outpaced by cost of living that moved faster than Usain Bolt. I know you understand this.

Yeah, but typically one with a petit bourgeois stake in something. Just doesn't want to admit it.

[Andalusian girls]

the amount of people making claims in this thread without citing data is too damn high

i ain't even coming out for the economy is great or the economy is shambles but damn sons we talking aggregated data for 200 millionish people let's see some stats beyond a blunt and manipulated unemployment rate

[Yabby]

But i FEEL like the economy is bad

[Spicyryan]

But i FEEL like the economy is bad

People aren't always pessimistic. So sentiment is worth at least something, right? Especially seeing as it directly impacts economic choices.

That being said, sentiment doesn't just fall from the sky.

[Jaybar]

Well our office is finally seeing the real estate crunch right now as developers are having difficulty securing financing for projects. All the projects moving forward in our office have some form of government subsidizing for the developer. It's crazy expensive to build right now and that's going to trickle down to access to housing.

[archibaldcrane]

I guess compared to 4-5 years ago?

Compared to January 2020 (the pre-pandemic economic peak):

Real (meaning inflation-adjusted) per capita income is up:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/R...0price%20index.

A lower percentage of the employed hold multiple jobs:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12026620

A higher percentage of "prime age" people (25-54) are working:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12300060

U-6, often referred to as the "real" unemployment rate, is lower:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/U6RATE

Most of these are marginal improvements

But they're improvements.

The economic vibes are certainly worse though.

[Outlaw]

I read this article the other day that was very relevant to this recent discussion. The headline was something like, "If you live in California and make 100k a year you are considered below the poverty line."

I can't find it right now. >_<

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[Mertron]

Compared to January 2020 (the pre-pandemic economic peak):

Real (meaning inflation-adjusted) per capita income is up:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/R...0price%20index.

A lower percentage of the employed hold multiple jobs:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12026620

A higher percentage of "prime age" people (25-54) are working:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12300060

U-6, often referred to as the "real" unemployment rate, is lower:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/U6RATE

Most of these are marginal improvements

But they're improvements.

The economic vibes are certainly worse though.

yes but besides per capita income, percentage of employed holding multiple jobs, prime age people working, and the real unemployment rate, what has the economy ever done for us?