The Stock Market Is Not The Economy Thread II

[archibaldcrane]

https://twitter.com/TheTranscript_/s...ALZZuai1g&s=19

https://twitter.com/KathyJones/statu...nAeIMPFww&s=19

The biggest risk we face is that the fed doesn't start cutting soon enough.

Sent from my SM-A716U1 using Tapatalk

[Zetanio]

disagree, keep rates normal. going any further down is idiotic. rates should never get that low again.

[synistar]

And there isn't a recession. Gotta keep tools in the shed to stimulate the economy when shit hits the fan.

Corps have been too accustomed to cheap loans for nearly 12 years.

[Zetanio]

money has been free, it needs to not be. the fallout from these low rates is going to take a long time to work out. plenty of zombie companies with a giant pile of cheap debt that are effectively useless. a 6-7% mortgage rate is where it should be. drive down housing prices so the upfront cost of ownership falls.

[archibaldcrane]

not going to drive down housing prices without new supply

new supply is much easier to build with low rates than high ones

[synistar]

Nay to that. Cost inflation of raw building and wages because low rates won't do shit to dent the supply deficit.

Supply didn't increase much with those at or near zero rates AND QE happening. Housing/zoning policy needs to change before the economics come close the mattering.

[Zetanio]

Nay to that. Cost inflation of raw building and wages because low rates won't do shit to dent the supply deficit.

Supply didn't increase much with those at or near zero rates AND QE happening. Housing/zoning policy needs to change before the economics come close the mattering.

Agreed.

[Jaybar]

Yup. Big hurdles in beaurocracy holding back new construction. A lot of bans on 2-3 flats and townhouses means only SFH can be built on small urban infill lots. These are pretty typical in under-served communities that were targeted by redlining.

[archibaldcrane]

Multifamily starts are significantly down vs last year and it's not because of new bureaucracy, it's because of high rates. I'm the first person to rail against apartment bans and red tape but interest rates matter too. You can still say "keep 'em high" but you don't get to wish away the damage high rates does to housing construction.

Compared to one year ago, the annual rate for multifamily permitting decreased in all four Census regions, with the largest decreases shared at about 35% in the Midwest (down to 60,000 units) and South (down to 216,000 units) regions. The West region saw multifamily permitting slow by 26.3% to 144,000 units, while the small Northeast region’s permitting was down 23.6% to 40,000 units. Compared to the previous month, permitting was also down in all four regions.

https://www.realpage.com/analytics/m...tarts-decline/


Sent from my SM-A716U1 using Tapatalk

[Kaslo]

Multifamily starts are significantly down vs 2 years ago and it's not because of new bureaucracy, it's because of high rates. I'm the first person to rail against apartment bans and red tape but interest rates matter too. You can still say "keep 'em high" but you don't get to wish away the damage high rates does to housing construction.

Sent from my SM-A716U1 using Tapatalk

I can confirm from builders I know that builds are down due to rates causing funding issues to build more.

[synistar]

Interest rates low - omg building materials expensive so fast.

interest rates at pre-2008 recession (5.25%) - omg loans so expensive.

All financial sectors need to wean off the 0% interest rate kool aid for a bit. There's been 15 years of extremely lax monetary policy that the 5.25% fed rate is making everyone cry doom and gloom.

[Zetanio]

once things settle to not-zero rates for a few quarter, funding will get back into resi markets. there is a lot of cash on the sidelines that will go back in. everyone's "waiting" for zero again but they'll have to deploy capital within 24 months.

[Jaybar]

5+ unit new construction is significantly hampered by funding issues, but actual construction of affordable 2-5 unit infill buildings is illegal. We can't wait for huge high rise apartments and 5 over 1s to save our supply. We've been building those for years but they take significantly longer to plan, design, and construct versus infill lots. We are seeing far more deconversions instead.

I'm on the lower rate camp simply to keep large multi family projects and adaptive reuse projects continuing, but land use and zoning are hindering a lot of potential fast, cheap, and dense housing.

[Outlaw]

Nearly a third of Gen-Zers steal from self-checkout aisles, survey shows

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/one-in-...ut-poll-shows/



Sent from my SM-A505U1 using Tapatalk

[Zealot]

Man good for them, I only do it if something refuses to scan.

Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk

[arus2001]

Still say if they want us to self-checkout we get an employee discount. Folks stealing is just being ahead of the curve there.

[6souls]

https://twitter.com/djbyrnes1/status...87480300826805

[mallister]

But I thought high egg prices were biden's fault!!!

[Outlaw]

I am shocked! Shell shocked!!

Sent from my SM-A505U1 using Tapatalk

[kuronosan]

What? Businesses purposely raising prices on things to score record profits? No way