The Stock Market Is Not The Economy Thread II

[Cantih]

The only thing I can think of, would be for a state (or the Fed) to start a city/SEZ,

build dense, keep rents & utilities low (rent pegged to 30% of 30 hr/wk min wage), and with a heavy focus on WFH/location independent work as a backbone to draw in the first wave, and have no maximum size/city limit. As long as there's still people that want to come in, keep building. That much disposable income floating around will draw others.

Eventually, it'd relive pressure enough that everywhere else would need to get their head out their ass and start being reasonable, or suffer talent drain.

[Zetanio]

I will say watching Berniebros learn that their leftist savior they fucked the country over for is actually a huge Zionist douche the last 2 months has been fun.

wrong thread bub. also lol

[Zetanio]

The only thing I can think of, would be for a state (or the Fed) to start a city/SEZ,

build dense, keep rents & utilities low (rent pegged to 30% of 30 hr/wk min wage), and with a heavy focus on WFH/location independent work as a backbone to draw in the first wave, and have no maximum size/city limit. As long as there's still people that want to come in, keep building. That much disposable income floating around will draw others.

Eventually, it'd relive pressure enough that everywhere else would need to get their head out their ass and start being reasonable, or suffer talent drain.

15 minute cities are my fave but pegging rent to any wage % is ripe for failure because no one will build residential units in that area with the rest of the country being more profitable. Your example would mean base rent would be $585 a month. In a 20 unit 5 floor walk up that's $11,700 a month. I'm not sure you could cover even the insurance on a building with that much cash in most places, let alone upkeep/building costs.

You're basically describing how Houston was for like 30 years. They just kept building out.

Anyway, I don't disagree with your intent. Knowing what I do about commercial real estate (which multi-family resi buildings are a part of) and the overall state of that market, I think there's going to be a lot of pain and consolidation in the Sunbelt cities with legacy CRE companies scooping up all the morons who built residential towers with the intent to flip them during the free money train. That, along with an overall reduction in construction starts, is going to be a major talking point for the next few years. There's no simple solution of "hey lets build 25 more buildings" because these things don't really operate in a vacuum. All the cities that exploded during and after COVID are having major issues with transportation and infrastructure (although infrastructure is pretty shit everywhere in the US) along with a shifting voter base. Contrary to popular belief, all the people moving to Texas, Idaho, Colorado, and Florida are not drawn on party lines.

Yeah, there's a lot going on. My easy solution would be to get rid of the 30 year mortgage because it's retarded but what the fuck do I know.

[archibaldcrane]

https://twitter.com/NickTimiraos/sta...nIedrwGOA&s=19

https://twitter.com/JosephPolitano/s...6cB_xLi_w&s=19

Rent (including the obscure "owner's equivalent rent") is driving the majority of inflation at this point. However, the way CPI calculates rent and OER is on a lag, basically every national rent estimate shows it is either flat or falling a little, so as this bakes into CPI over the next 6 months we should be gliding down to 2% no problem.

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[archibaldcrane]

This long ass tweet breaks down the issue

https://twitter.com/jayparsons/statu...5eyHNXoKg&s=19

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[Zealot]

I guess my question is what are the odds any of this actually makes enough of a difference to penetrate the social consciousness by next November.

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[Zetanio]

motherfucker when did tweets stop being short

[TsingTao]

Not long after Elon bought that shit.

[Zetanio]

I think macro trends are pretty shit at showing real life in this case.

There are a huge amount of cities where rents are flat or dropping but the large metros (as they always do) refuse to drop much. New York is so awful. Our apartment we gave up in 2020 is now $1000 more expensive than when we left. That's such an insane thing to say out loud lol.


The general statement right now should be: Things are generally fine in the US. Inflation isn't as bad anymore. Housing kinda sucks.

The statement should not be: Everything is bad because rent is high.

See here: https://www.zumper.com/blog/rental-price-data/

[archibaldcrane]

https://twitter.com/Pat_Horan92/stat...IA-I96HWA&s=19

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[archibaldcrane]

Hmm

https://twitter.com/josephzeballos/s...eq7lSqsvQ&s=19

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[kuronosan]

Is this good or bad

[Andalusian girls]

housing is in probably the worst position of any of our lives and any effort to downplay it when looking at economic health is bonkers. employment, very good, wage growth, decent after crossing with inflation, housing, pretty, preeeetty, preeeeeetttyyyyy bad.

[Andalusian girls]

almost like it would have to come from landlords and trophy husbands.... hmmmmmmmmmmmm...

[archibaldcrane]

housing is in probably the worst position of any of our lives and any effort to downplay it when looking at economic health is bonkers. employment, very good, wage growth, decent after crossing with inflation, housing, pretty, preeeetty, preeeeeetttyyyyy bad.

Yep

and since new housing is desperately needed, and is much easier to finance with lower rates, and we're already at flat inflation once you properly account for rent, it's time to lower rates to get new housing construction starts up again.

[Roranora]

what if we built the pods

[archibaldcrane]

what if we built the pods

legalize it

[Roranora]

could we go for the forgiveness route not the permission

[Roranora]

i’m getting better with tools is what i’m saying

[archibaldcrane]

could we go for the forgiveness route not the permission

if you wanna do a garage conversion maybe

sadly ignoring the housing cops doesn't work as well in construction as it does in, like, shoplifting