The Stock Market Is Not The Economy Thread II

[Roranora]

it just takes a little unforeseen care to tip me into broke

~8k and counting for sinus surgery (wow this plan sucks) this year
it was 3.6k root canal and crown last year
it was 7k hernia surgery the year before that

we could kinda plan for the 20k/year childcare. i have no idea what a doctor's bill is gonna say until i get it but at least they take credit cards unlike the school

hey, 15 million jobs yay

[Zetanio]

more jobs, more wages, and more growth does not help when the rest of the system is absolutely hilariously broken and biased against even mid poors.

[Zetanio]

dental care is the worst of it. fuck dentists and fuck dental insurance.

[kuronosan]

I guess that's what I don't understand. It's only about adding jobs if your lens is "yay unemployment is down" but what about bankruptcy, homelessness, and debt to income? Are those down? And how many of these jobs are unique jobs not held by somebody already working?

[Byrthnoth]

Typically, unemployment being low is seen as a good thing because it means that people looking for a first job can find one, so the demand for labor meets or exceeds the supply.

The other metrics you are talking about are important, but they are also correlated with labor demand exceeding supply, so people just tend to talk about unemployment.

[Kaslo]

I guess that's what I don't understand. It's only about adding jobs if your lens is "yay unemployment is down" but what about bankruptcy, homelessness, and debt to income? Are those down? And how many of these jobs are unique jobs not held by somebody already working?

For Personal Chapter 7 Bankruptcy (what is usually first-time bankruptcies), 2023 was the 2nd lowest filing year of the past 5 years.

Household Debt to Income has been consistently at a healthy rate for the past like 10 years, outside a really big drop during COVID.

[Malithar]

i have no idea what a doctor's bill is gonna say until i get it

That's my biggest issue with medical. Dental and eye doctors at least quote you before work, you know what you're getting into. I've never had anything medical be willing to give a ballpark much less a stern cost to anything I've ever had to have done. The closest I've had to an estimate was a sleep apnea test that said it wouldn't exceed $3,000 but that's all they'd commit to saying. Spoiler, insurance told me it'd be covered with deductible as a specialist visit, but the facility I had it was on the campus of a hospital, so it was billed as an overnight hospital visit and insurance didn't do squat for it.

[Gredival]

The other metrics you are talking about are important, but they are also correlated with labor demand exceeding supply, so people just tend to talk about unemployment.

This.

Supply and demand dictate that those things are (naturally) addressed by putting people OUT of work.

Employment is inflationary. The Fed has a dual mandate of contradictory goals to promote growth (employment) and reduce inflation, and limited tools to do either.

The solution to these other problems are complex and some require fundamental shifts in business structures, maybe beyond legislative and executive authority, so crying about how the neolibs don't do enough for people doesn't really fix it.

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[Zetanio]

goddamn neolibs not doing enough.

[Kaslo]

goddamn neolibs not doing enough.

Time to vote for someone who will do less!

[Tyrath]

Time to vote for someone who will do less!

I think we can really fix the Israel/Gaza thing by voting out Biden and voting in *checks notes* the guy who said Israel should finish the job.

[Zetanio]

less is more. duhh.

[Zetanio]

you see the problem is, we have no idea how to fix the problem therefore the problem is the problem, lets go to commercial.

[archibaldcrane]

Household debt service payments to disposable income is at its lowest level in our lifetimes (outside of pandemic distortions)

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TDSP

Real disposable personal income per capita is at an all time high (outside of pandemic distortions)

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A229RX0

The biggest issues our economy has is expensive, scarce housing (for the ~third of American households that don't own their hones outright or have a low fixed interest rate mortgage) and health care costs (although more people are insured today with better insurance than ever before in US History).

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[Zetanio]

thanks obama.

[Kaslo]

Household debt service payments to disposable income is at its lowest level in our lifetimes (outside of pandemic distortions)

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TDSP

Real disposable personal income per capita is at an all time high (outside of pandemic distortions)

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A229RX0

The biggest issues our economy has is expensive, scarce housing (for the ~third of American households that don't own their hones outright or have a low fixed interest rate mortgage) and health care costs (although more people are insured today with better insurance than ever before in US History).

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And the two solutions for housing are seemingly bad. 1) Increased suburban sprawl; or 2) multi-family housing opportunities and smaller lot sizes (which NIMBYs will fight tooth and nail against)

[kuronosan]

I mean I see new houses built all the time out here and the prices are impossibly high for most people, even in multi occupant developments. Are people supposed to live in bad areas just to afford them?

How is it said that houses would be cheaper if we had more but when more are built they're not anywhere near as cheap?

Shit, for that matter, what even makes the house affordable?

[Zetanio]

And the two solutions for housing are seemingly bad. 1) Increased suburban sprawl; or 2) multi-family housing opportunities and smaller lot sizes (which NIMBYs will fight tooth and nail against)

i disagree that the second one is bad. it is less likely. i think regulating the ownership of property is probably a better idea but its also a local/county level solution.

[Kaslo]

I mean I see new houses built all the time out here and the prices are impossibly high for most people, even in multi occupant developments. Are people supposed to live in bad areas just to afford them?

How is it said that houses would be cheaper if we had more but when more are built they're not anywhere near as cheap?

Shit, for that matter, what even makes the house affordable?

The traditional thinking is that new housing (even at high prices) usually helps those at the bottom, because people don't buy expensive starter homes, so usually everyone moves up the ladder and someone new can step on the bottom.

We are seeing less of that, however, due to AirBNB/Flippers buying the houses at the bottom as investments. I think the flippers are less of an issue, because those homes then move people from elsewhere like expensive homes do.

[Zetanio]

I mean I see new houses built all the time out here and the prices are impossibly high for most people, even in multi occupant developments. Are people supposed to live in bad areas just to afford them?

How is it said that houses would be cheaper if we had more but when more are built they're not anywhere near as cheap?

Shit, for that matter, what even makes the house affordable?

ok i'm gonna address this broadly as its something i actually know about on a professional level.

the number one problem with building cheap housing somewhere is that people who already own houses DO NOT want them built near them because of the perceived loss of value to their house so they vote against all zoning changes. You can only build cheap houses in cheap places. Those cheap places tend to be either: really far away from infrastructure or in a dangerous area. Contractors will not build in dangerous areas so that leaves option 1. This creates suburbs of suburbs (more correctly, infill) and also no one wants to fucking live 2 hours from a city in a podunk town with shitty schools so there is no demand.

EDIT: You can also sub in condo/apt owners in place of people who already own houses.

the solution is a widespread change away from single family zoning and the creation of circular, accessible cities that have stacked development of food/housing/industry along with robust education spending. That second bit is basically impossible now because of special interests (car lobby, oil lobby, construction lobby, real estate agent lobby, all the lobbies) spending a gazillion dollars for 50 years to convince middle to upper-middle white people that they're somehow better or smarter and need their own enclaves.