The Stock Market Is Not The Economy Thread II

[Zetanio]

The traditional thinking is that new housing (even at high prices) usually helps those at the bottom, because people don't buy expensive starter homes, so usually everyone moves up the ladder and someone new can step on the bottom.

We are seeing less of that, however, due to AirBNB/Flippers buying the houses at the bottom as investments. I think the flippers are less of an issue, because those homes then move people from elsewhere like expensive homes do.

this is generally correct except that only nice houses are being built right now.

[Andalusian girls]

Household debt service payments to disposable income is at its lowest level in our lifetimes (outside of pandemic distortions)

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TDSP

Real disposable personal income per capita is at an all time high (outside of pandemic distortions)

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A229RX0

The biggest issues our economy has is expensive, scarce housing (for the ~third of American households that don't own their hones outright or have a low fixed interest rate mortgage) and health care costs (although more people are insured today with better insurance than ever before in US History).

true, things are generally solid except for the most important acquisition most people will make in their lives + not getting sick and going bankrupt and dying

[Zealot]

I would happily give up having a house in favor of an apartment with walking accessibility to all my needs, but this is also contingent on this hypothetical living space having plenty of safe outdoor roaming areas for my dog.

[zoobernut]

Great but does it lead to wealth or are they just jobs? Like, I'm still trying to wrap my head around this. Does this ever really take into account people actually being able to afford a standard of living? I feel like ever time jobs are added if doesn't discuss subsequent raises and price increases.

Hasn't this subject been covered ad nauseum every time the jobs reports come out? Real adjusted wage growth keeps going up. The only thing totally broken still is the housing market but overall people are doing better and earning more.

Edit: A developer not too long ago got approval for a huge housing development in Fort Ord in Monterey County. Part of the requirement for approval was "affordable housing" I don't know all the details but the majority of the housing units are now listed and selling at "market value" which means they are all million dollar houses or higher. It did nothing for the supply as they just list them at market value and sit empty because no one can afford them that lives locally.

[Andalusian girls]

housing and healthcare are fundamentally broken in this country and life expectancy is declining at a faster and greater rate than at any point since the 1920s. drug overdose epidemic continues unabated + the mental health of our youth is hitting horrific levels with teen suicide rates doubling among many cohorts. i know some people feel the need to push back against all the doom and gloom related specifically to economic indicators, and some of it is merited, but the most fundamental measures of, you know, being alive, are losing ground for one of the only times in living history. and the brunt of it is disproportionately impacting children and young adults least able to manage it.

i think it's especially easy to become tone-deaf to the state of the country given almost all of us are middle-aged and safely ensconced in the middle or upper-middle class. added jobs are great, sure, and the societal bleeds into the economic with a lot of these indicators, but any country with a declining life expectancy, with drug abuse and deaths of despair increasing exponentially, where the children are killing themselves twice as often, this is not a healthy nation.

[archibaldcrane]

For AG
https://twitter.com/KAErdmann/status...kGVyTVR2A&s=19

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[Meresgi]

true, things are generally solid except for the most important acquisition most people will make in their lives + not getting sick and going bankrupt and dying

The American dream baby! Just dodge all random medical debt and roll them dice



Well fuck. Oh well at least reincarnation is real, see ya in the next life as a millionaire!

[Mrbeansman]

Walkable cities sound so great. I love the idea of having my shopping limited to what I can carry and then getting mugged on my way home from work.

[Gredival]

housing and healthcare are fundamentally broken in this country and life expectancy is declining at a faster and greater rate than at any point since the 1920s. drug overdose epidemic continues unabated + the mental health of our youth is hitting horrific levels with teen suicide rates doubling among many cohorts. i know some people feel the need to push back against all the doom and gloom related specifically to economic indicators, and some of it is merited, but the most fundamental measures of, you know, being alive, are losing ground for one of the only times in living history. and the brunt of it is disproportionately impacting children and young adults least able to manage it.

i think it's especially easy to become tone-deaf to the state of the country given almost all of us are middle-aged and safely ensconced in the middle or upper-middle class. added jobs are great, sure, and the societal bleeds into the economic with a lot of these indicators, but any country with a declining life expectancy, with drug abuse and deaths of despair increasing exponentially, where the children are killing themselves twice as often, this is not a healthy nation.

I don't think that all of these problems are economic in nature.

As someone who works with youth, there's been fundamental changes in society that have simply made them more vulnerable than ever before. I think any teacher will tell you today that youth are coming to them maladapted both emotionally and academically.

So yes the stresses of student debt and housing are bad, and the kids aren't coping well. But they are in trouble well before that.



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[archibaldcrane]

Phones are bad for teens (and probably everyone) and hard drugs are more available (although not totally sure what makes people think taking opiates for fun is a good idea when their entire life has been watching opiates destroy and take more lives every single year)

But back to the topic:

https://twitter.com/chrislhayes/stat...b8WRcnM_g&s=19

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[Andalusian girls]

I don't think that all of these problems are economic in nature.

As someone who works with youth, there's been fundamental changes in society that have simply made them more vulnerable than ever before. I think any teacher will tell you today that youth are coming to them maladapted both emotionally and academically.

So yes the stresses of student debt and housing are bad, and the kids aren't coping well. But they are in trouble well before that.

i don't disagree, but also reckon it's a damning indictment of the nation's (mental) healthcare system. and that is more or less impossible to disentangle from overall economic health given it's 17% of the entire US economy and constitutes a similarly weighty proportion of worker compensation / private debt / cause of bankruptcies. i don't think i will ever be able to look at the state of the U.S. economy with optimism until healthcare (and housing) are fixed. they are simply too important.

[Gredival]

I feel we have a double whammy of overdiagnosis (like surely in previous generations some people were just never diagnosed and made to tough it out and deal with it or suffer, but we've definitely overcompensated) and poor support.

Kids just get IEPs so they can get shifted along by being held to different standards, rather than being equipped to compete equitably.

And for many, just like emotional support animals, IEPs get abused.

[kuronosan]

I feel we have a double whammy of overdiagnosis (like surely in previous generations some people were just never diagnosed and made to tough it out and deal with it or suffer, but we've definitely overcompensated) and poor support.

Kids just get IEPs so they can get shifted along by being held to different standards, rather than being equipped to compete equitably.

And for many, just like emotional support animals, IEPs get abused.

Yes. I see this a lot in kids who become adults and were diagnosed with the most ridiculous shit when they were kids because parents just wanted to put a label and treatment on it that would be someone else's problem other than theirs. Some folks do need to just tough it out and some do need help, but a lot of models have gravitated towards "can't we just medicate it". As a result people don't get the help they actually need because it gets whittled down to "ah it's a medical illness awesome we don't need to change anything just fix it".

[Byrthnoth]

My sister suddenly started doing poorly in high school, so my mom took her to a psychiatrist. He told her that the real test for whether she had ADHD was whether she behaved better after starting Ritalin. That kind of "treatment defines the disease" approach feels too common in medicine, but particularly psychiatry. I mean, plenty of kids without ADHD used Ritalin to study in college. By that psychiatrist's definition they were all undiagnosed ADHD cases. His theory was probably good for his wallet, but not his patients.

I have no real opinion on what is causing the growing social problems, except that basic human biology hasn't changed meaningfully so it has to be some combination of environmental and social factors. So many things have changed over the last 20-40 years that it's unlikely to be a single factor.

[Mayareira]

My sister suddenly started doing poorly in high school, so my mom took her to a psychiatrist. He told her that the real test for whether she had ADHD was whether she behaved better after starting Ritalin. That kind of "treatment defines the disease" approach feels too common in medicine, but particularly psychiatry. I mean, plenty of kids without ADHD used Ritalin to study in college. By that psychiatrist's definition they were all undiagnosed ADHD cases. His theory was probably good for his wallet, but not his patients.

I have no real opinion on what is causing the growing social problems, except that basic human biology hasn't changed meaningfully so it has to be some combination of environmental and social factors. So many things have changed over the last 20-40 years that it's unlikely to be a single factor.

Failure is a part of any process, you’ll fail once, twice and you’ll learn eventually and develop resilience as well as your way of studying with the right guidance from parents. Sometimes the answer is extremely simple, it was just not your day.

A lot of people considering a career in aviation are held back by some diagnosis they’ve had during childhood seeking a complicated answer for something that is really simple.

[kuronosan]

My sister suddenly started doing poorly in high school, so my mom took her to a psychiatrist. He told her that the real test for whether she had ADHD was whether she behaved better after starting Ritalin. That kind of "treatment defines the disease" approach feels too common in medicine, but particularly psychiatry. I mean, plenty of kids without ADHD used Ritalin to study in college. By that psychiatrist's definition they were all undiagnosed ADHD cases. His theory was probably good for his wallet, but not his patients.

I have no real opinion on what is causing the growing social problems, except that basic human biology hasn't changed meaningfully so it has to be some combination of environmental and social factors. So many things have changed over the last 20-40 years that it's unlikely to be a single factor.

What a terrible approach lol, I can't imagine a patient coming into my office and I don't immediately try to rule out other things that can cause attention deficits first.

We have a term for that now in medicine called overpathologizing, where you make the symptoms fit an illness you're wanting to treat.

[mallister]

I literally just went through this with my psychiatrist. It's ass.

[Meresgi]

When I got diagnosed with ADHD my psych had me do 5-6 tests and then evaluated me for awhile before deciding it fit me and giving me adderall. Even then I only take as needed (aka if I feel overwhelmed with school and work)

[Ayn]

I don't think that all of these problems are economic in nature.

As someone who works with youth, there's been fundamental changes in society that have simply made them more vulnerable than ever before. I think any teacher will tell you today that youth are coming to them maladapted both emotionally and academically.

So yes the stresses of student debt and housing are bad, and the kids aren't coping well. But they are in trouble well before that.



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Can attest, as someone who works in education.

I'll spare everyone here the dissertation on it. I will say that I'm conflicted: I'm glad there's less stigma and more people getting the help they need, but there's also some things that seem rather excessive.

[Zetanio]

I wonder what the correlation of overprescription for mental health diagnoses with pharmaceutical advertising and kickbacks is.

I like that mental health is being taken more seriously but it's basically been coopted as a way to excuse shitty parental behavior to a comical and depressing level. As a personal anecdotal piece, my MIL was a gym teacher for like 30+ years and at the end of her tenure she had to stop doing the really fun activities with her youngest kids because a few kids were "at risk of overstimulation". From playing with a brightly colored rainbow parachute. These kids were fuckin 6 and not autistic.