The Stock Market Is Not The Economy Thread II

[Malithar]

Buy here: https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv...res_ibonds.htm

That website makes me feel like I'm about to give a Nigerian prince my money.

[archibaldcrane]

That website makes me feel like I'm about to give a Nigerian prince my money.

Yeah it's hilariously low rent but I promise it's the real treasury site

[Jaybar]

Worth a one-time investment for the year? Should I treat it like a pump and dump after the year is out? Keep the I Bond until retirement?

[archibaldcrane]

Worth a one-time investment for the year? Should I treat it like a pump and dump after the year is out? Keep the I Bond until retirement?

See what the interest is after a year and reevaluate, but definitely worth it for the year.

[Ayn]

Thanks for the tip, Archi. Someone paid me back some money they owed me after some time, so once I settle some bills I'll look at this.

[AoE]

Thanks archi

[synistar]

The online verification didn't go through so off to the bank either tomorrow or Friday to get a medallion stamp on this verification form.

[Outlaw]

Stocks suffered their worst day of the year on Thursday, pulling back sharply and completely erasing a rally from the prior session in a stunning reversal that deepened the market’s losses for 2022.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1,120 points, or 3.3 percent. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite fell 3.7 percent and 5.2 percent, respectively.

The moves come after a major rally for stocks on Wednesday. The Dow surged 932 points, or 2.81 percent, and the S&P 500 gained 2.99 percent for their biggest gains since 2020. The Nasdaq Composite jumped 3.19 percent.

Those gains had all been erased before noon in New York on Thursday.

“If you go up 3 percent and then you give up half a percent the next day, that’s pretty normal stuff. ... But having the kind of day we had yesterday and then seeing it 100 percent reversed within half a day is just truly extraordinary,” said Randy Frederick, managing director of trading and derivatives at the Schwab Center for Financial Research.

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/mar...hike-rcna27513

[Yabby]

Truly extraordinary? This shit happens all the fucking time now.

[archibaldcrane]

https://twitter.com/AP/status/152255...aZN14HaZw&s=19

[Jaybar]

Jobs go up, stocks go down. Can't explain that.

[Roranora]

Jobs were high as resignations were also buoyant. Did we really add bunches of jobs or did we mostly shuffle them?

Hamsters are swapping out their wheels though, and that does seem like decently good news.

[Salodin]

Jobs were high as resignations were also buoyant. Did we really add bunches of jobs or did we mostly shuffle them?

Hamsters are swapping out their wheels though, and that does seem like decently good news.

Uh, is that how the stat works? Legit question. These aren't just new jobs, but new hires as well?

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[archibaldcrane]

https://twitter.com/IrvingSwisher/st...eXl1-cyLg&s=19

[archibaldcrane]

Jobs were high as resignations were also buoyant. Did we really add bunches of jobs or did we mostly shuffle them?

Hamsters are swapping out their wheels though, and that does seem like decently good news.

The number is net of hires + quits/layoffs/etc

[archibaldcrane]

Uh, is that how the stat works? Legit question. These aren't just new jobs, but new hires as well?

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It's filled jobs, not just offered.

[Salodin]

The number is net of hires + quits/layoffs/etc

So then these are still new positions filled. People quiting for a new job would be a wash in the end.

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[NynJa]

Prediction:
These new jobs are taken by persons who are currently employed seeking secondary/tertiary employment just to get by.

[Mayareira]

Jobs go up, stocks go down. Can't explain that.

The economy is slowing by higher interest rates and this will lead to slower growth for companies. Markets tend to price risks in well advance.

Regarding jobs...that's not necessarily too positive from markets perspective in 2022 (it'd be in great recession). Red hot job market is driving the wages up along with the inflation and the underlying reason is not a solid economic growth, its the decrease in workforce participation.

The fed is actually trying to cool off the market by raising the interest rates, making borrowing more difficult and encouraging more workforce participation.

The reason why stocks fell is that there is a general belief...or lets say, recognition of a risk that the Fed may not be able to pull it off. What happens if it fails?

Higher Interest Rates = Slower Economic Growth.
Low Workforce Participation = Wage hikes without a structural growth = Inflation, which will eat up the wage increases.

and you get Stagflation. This is perhaps the most negative scenario right now and the risk is out there. It'll most likely be felt in the stock market for a while.

[Mythe_Seraph]

The risk is out there? Dude we are experiencing stagflation right here and now. Real GDP is down. Inelastic goods and services are up, leaving real take home also down. Idk why this thread and the media are always so fixed on employment data as it’s not a good leading indicator of anything. We’re in for tough, tough times very, very soon.