The Stock Market Is Not The Economy Thread II

[Kaslo]

https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/stat...aLoL4gbKbLKbBw

https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/stat...aLoL4gbKbLKbBw

[Spicyryan]

https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/stat...aLoL4gbKbLKbBw

https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/stat...aLoL4gbKbLKbBw

"starting to look transitory" oh boy. Just when you thought this stupid shit was getting left in the dust as a joke, it comes back.

It is beyond me how anyone thinks this situation can be simplified to the notion that if the fed raises rates then it will suddenly fix inflation. The issue is more than just consumer demand and monetary policy. Raising rates will not fix global logistical issues impacting the supply chain, a global energy crisis, a global housing crisis, a looming global food crisis, water insecurity, raw material shortages, chip shortages amid rising chip demand, a lack of domestic production in america, trade friction (China tarrifs, Russia, etc), war in Ukraine, China's zero Covid policy, lack of availability at ports, labor shortages (2:1 open positions in america alone), corportate zombie debt, consumer debt, etc etc.

Some of the simpler issues like a backlog at the ports will get sorted out eventually with less demand, yes, but unless the fed wants a drastic recession then raising interest rates to cool demand isn't a direct solution. Only 2% of our oil came from Russia anyway, and since the vast bulk of our goods are coming from Asia and then have to be trucked across the country. Then inflation from oil prices for example, amid declining output due to shareholders holding expansion down, is not going away. Gas is required to get to work or move anything or power businesses and homes.
I don't believe you can just cool off the economy enough with interest rates to solve the somewhat unique set of intricate woes we are facing. It will take more than monetary policy, and Biden is doing fuck all for fiscal policy on the matter. We could take a page from playbook of how FDR or Nixon countered inflation while interest rates were much higher, but once again Biden doesn't have the stomach for it. Since he is about to watch his party get wrecked in the midterms. Yellen is functionally behaving as a mouthpiece for the administration, and she knows economics better than this.

[Mythe_Seraph]

You could also discuss how the current formula for inflation is completely flawed and while 8.X% looks bad it’s probably closer to double that. But most people just accept whatever they’re fed.

[kuronosan]

Including that inflation is a real thing at all. Driving up imaginary cost with imaginary money at an imaginary rate with team world consequences.

I think I heard economists orgasm from my office window.

The most interesting thing about inflation of any kind, including gas prices, is how inflation rises so much faster than wages and falls much slower than it increased.

[Spicyryan]

You could also discuss how the current formula for inflation is completely flawed and while 8.X% looks bad it’s probably closer to double that. But most people just accept whatever they’re fed.

Unemployment too, and yet it is touted as the defining metric of economic health alongside GDP for some reason. Now, I may not even remotely be an economist, but even I am not that economically illiterate.

The most interesting thing about inflation of any kind, including gas prices, is how inflation rises so much faster than wages and falls much slower than it increased.

Funny how deliberately that works too, right? Then the moment anyone asks for more of their stolen surplus labor value be returned to them, everyone cries "but, that raises prices!"

[archibaldcrane]

https://twitter.com/byHeatherLong/st...EGPANnbEQ&s=19

https://twitter.com/byHeatherLong/st...CpjS0qQfQ&s=19

https://twitter.com/byHeatherLong/st...nhprw4ysA&s=19

https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/stat...7dQup4H9g&s=19

[kuronosan]

Great, people are working again. But how much are the jobs paying and are they able to make ends meet?

Fucking metrics.

[archibaldcrane]

https://twitter.com/DeanBaker13/stat...aEHBRn8_Q&s=19

[archibaldcrane]

Great, people are working again. But how much are the jobs paying and are they able to make ends meet?

Fucking metrics.

https://twitter.com/morningmoneyben/...w9UGUynIw&s=19

[Spicyryan]

Great, people are working again. But how much are the jobs paying and are they able to make ends meet?

Fucking metrics.

Ummm, this is an American economist. So they aren't going to worry too much about that metric. Say it again with me, "jobs jobs jobs jobs jobs jobs!"

What other metrics even are there?

[Athas]

Everyone know the DOW is a real time indicator of a president's economic performance.

[6souls]

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1...bBzbdAXjcURoPA

[Spicyryan]

Everyone know the DOW is a real time indicator of a president's economic performance.

I thought we were using the BTC price index.

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1...bBzbdAXjcURoPA

This is one of the tenets of capitalism. A constant labor pool of the unemployed and desperate in order to drive wages down. So since these dick anchors are doing fine. They want to keep doing fine no matter the expense to others.

[Roranora]

Great, people are working again. But how much are the jobs paying and are they able to make ends meet?

Fucking metrics.

lemme know how that median annual household income is looking

[Kaslo]

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1...bBzbdAXjcURoPA

Wonder if this is also why Hunter Biden was trending this morning too.

Distract Distract Distract!

[archibaldcrane]

lemme know how that median annual household income is looking

We don't even have 2021 data for that yet, much less current.

However https://twitter.com/conorsen/status/..._wSwllT5g&s=19

[6souls]

Wonder if this is also why Hunter Biden was trending this morning too.

Distract Distract Distract!

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1545192122634174465

[Spicyryan]

We don't even have 2021 data for that yet, much less current.

However https://twitter.com/conorsen/status/..._wSwllT5g&s=19

What a tweet. Well, it is more difficult to increase larger numbers compared to much smaller numbers.

[archibaldcrane]

https://twitter.com/jc_econ/status/1...9lPoUrZIw&s=19

[kuronosan]

And yet still lower than whites. Promising, but this is why I hate metrics.